Geo Political Risk

[BlackPeter]

I suspect China will not make a move to change the staus quo in the South China sea this year. Firstly, with the Olympic coming up in Feb 22 it would not risk Western countries boycotting the game. Secondly, as widely reported, China's own industry is heavily dependent on TSMC to to supply high end chips so it'd be silly to shoot itself in the foot by causing further disruption to the supply chain.

I suspect you are right. Another parallel - Hitler waited as well for the Olympic games in Berlin (1936) to pass before he started the war aka - "returned fire" three years later .

[Getty]

Don't forget - the Maoris came from Taiwan - i.e. following the Chinese logic, NZ clearly must be Taiwanese. Given that Taiwan belongs to China this would mean - again following Chinese logic - that China could claim the "right" to occupy NZ next in order to bring us back into the land of the middle. Hey - the people whose country they say they have a right to occupy - have been here first.

Going by the comments I just heard on National radio news, by Mike Smith, of Iwi Forum Pandemic Response Group, & One Tree Hill chainsaw infamy, Maori are not from Taiwan, they are from another planet!

Cant all human beings see the benefit of a covid jab, and just get on with it?
Vaccine equity, a new buzz word eh Mike?

[GTM 3442]

https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/red-...eam-neighbors/

[Panda-NZ-]

I suspect you are right. Another parallel - Hitler waited as well for the Olympic games in Berlin (1936) to pass before he started the war aka - "returned fire" three years later .

Done some basic research on japanese war crimes since the movie midway is Number one on netflix currently.

Unit 731 sounds rather scary.

[Panda-NZ-]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operat...ssoms_at_Night

Scrapped for logistical reasons, rather than being immoral.

It's lucky a certain bomb ended things.

[GTM 3442]

https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/if-c...ill-europe-do/

[Davexl]

2027 Taiwan?

China Has World’s Largest Navy With 355 Ships and Counting, Says Pentagon

https://news.usni.org/2021/11/03/chi...eid=cc0f71bf89

[BlackPeter]

2027 Taiwan?

China Has World’s Largest Navy With 355 Ships and Counting, Says Pentagon

https://news.usni.org/2021/11/03/chi...eid=cc0f71bf89

Good question.

I have no doubt that the PRC could invade and drown Taiwan already now with soldiers, if that's what they wanted.

The consequences for the world economy (including China) would be a disaster - next to other things ... Taiwan produces 90% of all Laptops world-wide as well as the most sophisticated computer chips! This production would immediately stop due to support from the West (tools and components) ending.

For that reason I have doubts that this would be any good for the Chinese (or anybody else) ... and we have seen as well in Afghanistan how difficult it is for a well equipped and resourced army to hold a country which does not like to be hold. If anybody thinks the topography in Afghanistan was difficult, than have a look at Taiwan - amazing landscape and mountain ranges! Quite impossible to take with modern troops!

I am however sure that the sabre rattling will continue and everybody will try to get as many concessions as they can.

[Davexl]

Good question.

I have no doubt that the PRC could invade and drown Taiwan already now with soldiers, if that's what they wanted.

The consequences for the world economy (including China) would be a disaster - next to other things ... Taiwan produces 90% of all Laptops world-wide as well as the most sophisticated computer chips! This production would immediately stop due to support from the West (tools and components) ending.

For that reason I have doubts that this would be any good for the Chinese (or anybody else) ... and we have seen as well in Afghanistan how difficult it is for a well equipped and resourced army to hold a country which does not like to be hold. If anybody thinks the topography in Afghanistan was difficult, than have a look at Taiwan - amazing landscape and mountain ranges! Quite impossible to take with modern troops!

I am however sure that the sabre rattling will continue and everybody will try to get as many concessions as they can.

From my own reading it appears that Taiwan makes the most sophisticated chips because its IP is is fact superior to the US.

That's why the US is racing to build at least 2 chip megafoundries in partnership with Intel to transfer the IP back to the US and up its own game in the nanometer chip dimension races.

If Taiwan's foundries fall under Chinese control intact, then China will gain that IP and leave the West behind in the race to future technologies.The West could effectively be sidelined from the most advanced technologies, becoming merely a tech user and no longer a tech innovator. The US has the best science perhaps but its technology is now lagging the likes of Taiwan at least in chip manufacturing.

There's a huge amount at stake - whoever owns or allies with Taiwan, owns the future itself...

[Davexl]

As if the World doesn't have enough on its plate...

A dangerous crisis is brewing in the Balkans. Will the West do anything to stop another war?

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/06/e...cmd/index.html