Geo Political Risk

[GTM 3442]

I think it's a mistake to conflate Ukraine and Taiwan - the drivers are quite, quite different.

For China, re-unification with Taiwan is a matter of policy - and is in the public arena. Failure to re-unify the Greater Chinese Nation would be a failure of policy, and would represent a failure of the political leadership. Such failure would be intolerable.

For Russia, the desire is for a stable border. The current "frozen conflict" provides that stability for far, far less effort than would an invasion.

[BlackPeter]

I think it's a mistake to conflate Ukraine and Taiwan - the drivers are quite, quite different.

For China, re-unification with Taiwan is a matter of policy - and is in the public arena. Failure to re-unify the Greater Chinese Nation would be a failure of policy, and would represent a failure of the political leadership. Such failure would be intolerable.

For Russia, the desire is for a stable border. The current "frozen conflict" provides that stability for far, far less effort than would an invasion.

You are right - different drivers, but it still makes sense to assume these events might happen at the same time. Look at it from this perspective - no matter who (Putin or Xi) strikes first, they will occupy the focus of the western and not anymore that united union. If the other one strikes thereafter, they will either get only half the attention - or still less.

Good time to steal and invade / occupy if the West is busy with other problems.

[GTM 3442]

You are right - different drivers, but it still makes sense to assume these events might happen at the same time. Look at it from this perspective - no matter who (Putin or Xi) strikes first, they will occupy the focus of the western and not anymore that united union. If the other one strikes thereafter, they will either get only half the attention - or still less.

Good time to steal and invade / occupy if the West is busy with other problems.

Out of idle curiosity, what does Russia gain from invading & occupying Ukraine? That is, what would Russia get that Russia doesn't already have?

[Panda-NZ-]

Which dictator doesn't want to distract from their domestic issues.

The argentine junta and the falklands being an example.

[Waltzing]

Decisions on NordStream 2 has already been delayed.

The UKR has used turk made drones to hit artillery position which means troop movements are obvious and plan to build a new factory to build 50 more.

Germany will drop NS2 and russia needs the revenue..

[Davexl]

Decisions on NordStream 2 has already been delayed.

Germany will drop NS2 and russia needs the revenue..

Europe needs the gas and can't get it from the US (like the US planned) as their shale fracking fields are shutdown...

[GTM 3442]

Russia needs to export gas, Europe needs to import gas. It should be a marriage made in heaven. How far and how fast does the balance change as Europe electrifies?

[mcdongle]

From what i can make out, Europe needs gas because it has electrified and the wind did not blow as much as expected this year. They have been using their reserves

[Panda-NZ-]

US should tighten up their pandemic control within the military.

If russia and china try something during this new covid wave they need to be ready this time.

[Panda-NZ-]

Ukraine worried about a Kremlim planned internal coup, co-inciding with russian troops along the border.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59428712