Geo Political Risk

[Waltzing]

Cuba play.. classic Khrushchev.

Applying pressure all the way up and down the new iron Putin curtain.

[Panda-NZ-]

Putin preparing a false flag within ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lWFXJ7RNPg

Cool, prepared to hurt his own supporters nothing new.

[BlackPeter]

Putin preparing a false flag within ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lWFXJ7RNPg

Cool, prepared to hurt his own supporters nothing new.

Putin clearly learned a lot from Hitler ... Ukraine might be now to Putin what Czechia was to Hitler:

1) Pretend a much weaker state you are harassing and oppressing is threatening you.

2) Infiltrate this state and organise some actors or agents in this state to pretend an attack against your troops

3) Shoot back and pretend to be the poor victim of aggression

4) Start a World War.

5) Kill millions of people

6) Lose the war

We are currently at number 2 (arguably number 3 if we count the first invasion of Russia against Ukrainian territory ;

[Bjauck]

That speech, the Iron Curtain speech by Churchill has to be one of the most incite-full and all encompassing post WWII speeches of all time, and serves as a tremendous history lesson in itself, that deserves to be read by a new generation of New Zealanders who need to reinterpret and update their sense of history in light of the new strategic challenges that we face today with both Russia and now China.

It has to rate, as historic inspiration, as good if not better than the reading of the Declaration of Independence itself, which I remember reading in Washington DC decades ago as a young man. Words that put in the backbone and provide the purpose for us all today.

Thank You Waltzing for bringing this to our attention.

I think you may have meant insightful rather incite-ful? For I think it could well be argued that the Austrian Hitler had an equally if not more impressive power of speech to incite the people of the country of which he was in charge. The Anglo-American Churchill’s UK needed the USA to achieve many of its goals.

[Davexl]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/1...12-predictions

Some predictions about China in 2022 as they affect NZ.

Pretty good summary overall but I strongly suspect that China's strategic intentions will be made clear in the South Pacific by moves to sight the beginnings of a new naval base in the South Pacific. The US Navy is expecting this "surprise" this year, not the status quo as mentioned in the article by the NZCCRC. However the US Congress only just seems to be waking up on this strategic intention recently after increased warning from Australia especially.

New Zealand faces 'negative trajectory' of security threats in Pacific - Lucy Craymer & Thomas Manch

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/127219200/new-zealand-faces-negative-trajectory-of-security-threats-in-pacific

Excerpt:

“China views an increased presence in the Pacific as part of its natural progression towards its global goals.”

The assessment said the “most threatening” developments include the construction of military or dual-use bases by countries not aligned with New Zealand, military supported resource exploitation, and military confrontation.

The construction of a base could “fundamentally alter the strategic balance of the region”, the assessment said."


So New Zealand is "aware" of what is going to happen, but is not gearing up to DO anything about it.
Essentially, NZ itself is defence-less

[Panda-NZ-]

I think you may have meant insightful rather incite-ful? For I think it could well be argued that the Austrian Hitler had an equally if not more impressive power of speech to incite the people of the country of which he was in charge. The Anglo-American Churchill’s UK needed the USA to achieve many of its goals.

You saying a man with a top hat and cane, born into aristocracy is not relatable ?? :P

[Bjauck]

You saying a man with a top hat and cane, born into aristocracy is not relatable ?? :P

Top hat was just the business attire of the time. Even Lloyd George sported it.
https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-ll...-30493956.html

[Waltzing]

The russian's have declared cyber war and it will spread.

Arrested some state agented hackers to apparently show what they will unleash.

New Cold war is here.

Complete with their Aircraft carrier still sunk in port or somewhere.

[Davexl]

Don't forget about the South China Sea / Taiwan - the Phillipines is preparing for war, buying supersonic stand-off cruise misslies,

https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/philippines-to-buy-indias-brahmos-supersonic-missiles-01142022133408.html

NZ should do the same - if it had any sense, but the NZ Defence Force is stupid, given we have no effective combatants to speak of...

[Panda-NZ-]

Russia still has an effective military because they've been neglecting other parts of their society.

Chechnya, daegstan, khazakstan and other powder kegs could be encouraged to secede with some timely weapons supplies.