Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

As crazy as Trump has been he has somehow pulled his fellow nationalist Modi off India's non-aligned fence and got them used to the idea of collective co-operation and containment. That and another strategic blunder by Xi Jinping in building that road along/into India's territory and allowing an attack on their troops. The four (US, Japan, India and Aus) aren't as clever a strategy as TPP was but it's a solid foundation for future expansion and co-operation.

Other East Asian nations (South Korea, Taiwan and Japan) managed very successful transitions from authoritarian, even dictatorial regimes to thriving market based social democracies. Was worth trying with China but I feel their sense of manifest destiny and historical grievance is stronger. Hopefully will just take a bit longer.

Until quite recently I thought that supporting Huawei was an excellent idea, not just technically but geopolitically - it was a 'global' technology that would help to cement the bonds between China & the West to allow time for China to possibly liberalise further. I even wrote items in the South China Morning Post & in the Financial Times supporting Huawei and the mostly European countries that chose them on both technical and security manageability grounds as asserted earlier by both New Zealand and Britain not long ago.

It also seemed that the US definately bullied 5-Eyes countries to get onside with their view which in my opinion was both anti-sovereign for the countries making the choice, and anti-competitive in the free-market trade sense too. The security claims by the US were bogus also according to the UK earlier, "UK says Huawei is manageable risk to 5G" in the Financial Times (Paywalled) and from Alex Younger MI6 in the UK, Total ban on China’s Huawei may be a mistake and it’s ‘more complicated than in or out’,

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/2186414/total-ban-chinas-huawei-may-be-mistake-and-its-more-complicated-or

Huawei in the UK was finally put paid to by a combination of right wing pressure from a Conservatives clique, and the dismantling of Huawei's supply chain (by cutting out TSMC chip supply) by the US rendering Huawei adoption by the UK untenable. Germany & Canada will likely now follow the UK with their decision making.

But after China's earlier lies on their South China Seas commitments, the New York Times papers published on Xinjiang abuses, and then the complete deceit over Hong Kong I for one decided that under President Xi there was no chance for a reconciliation between East & West, the gaps remain too wide and the trust was gone. China not even allowing Taiwan into the WHO in the middle of a global pandemic didn't help either.

The decoupling will take time however, plenty long enough for the idiot Trump regime (you can't really call it an Administration) and President Xi to be challenged & replaced by more rational & less nationalistic forces for a safer world.

[Leftfield]

Good post Davexi....... like you many have woken up to Xi's aggressiveness. Perhaps he has done us all a favour long term.

[Davexl]

Thanks Left Field.

More on the ramifications of UK offers to repatriate Hong Kongers with BNO passports, also affecting the French led, Chinese involvement, in Hinckley Point C nuclear reactor, and the potential cancellations of billions in UK investment due to shutting out Huawei 5G.

Hong Kong: China says it will not recognise UK overseas passports

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...seas-passports

[Davexl]

And via the Financial Times:

US to pull nearly 12,000 troops out of Germany

"The Trump administration is pulling nearly 12,000 troops out of Germany in a controversial move set to add to tensions within Nato.
The decision comes after President Donald Trump last month vowed to cap US troops stationed in Germany at 25,000 unless Berlin spent more on defence for the transatlantic security alliance. "

Seems like another reckless decision by the Trump led "regime" that doesn't make any strategic sense whatsoever, whatever you think of Germany's spending.

Mind you - look at NZ's dismal Defence contribution - here's the wake-up call...
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ne...uncertain-age/

Democrats and Republicans take aim at Pompeo over US troop withdrawal from Germany

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...enate-grilling

Looks like both Democrats & Rebublicans don't trust the validity of Pompeo's decision over troop withdrawal.

Pompeo seems to me to be an extremely hawkish "loose cannon" in the Trump regime, first over his unsubstantiated claims over Huawei 5G security,
and now this irrational move...(Must have spent too long in the CIA, and ended up a bit paranoid perhaps - understandable but dangerous)

[Onion]

The decoupling will take time however, plenty long enough for the idiot Trump regime (you can't really call it an Administration) and President Xi to be challenged & replaced by more rational & less nationalistic forces for a safer world.

How will a challenge to President Xi play out? I thought he was establishing quite a solid footing.

[Davexl]

How will a challenge to President Xi play out? I thought he was establishing quite a solid footing.

He appears to be safe for now, attempting to snuff out the Democratic freedoms of Hong Kong, one of the key sources of cross-border Democratic ideas.

However in the longer term, he has already failed, starting with Tienanmen, a whole generation of liberal Chinese waiting for an opportunity,

and the economic failures and mass unemployment brought on by Covid 19, he has to take responsibility for all of it, under his personality cult -

and for people like Liu Xiaobo who kept the flame burning...writing & circulating the Democratic manifesto "Charter 08".

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...nt-liu-xiaobo/

[Davexl]

This article represents the kind of stupidity and paranoia coming out of the Trump "regime",
such is the US' desperation to demonise Huawei at all costs.

So much for Fair Global Competition!

Imagine how the US would respond if Intel Corporation's global chip fabrication was totally threatened?

Totally unsubstantiated security risks based on ignorance over how your common Router works.
Until recently, almost all Routers has easy default access usernames and passwords, to allow the user to manage the router, and to allow the ISP eg Spark & Vodafone to remotely manage the Router on your behalf. And they attempt to call this "Backdoor Access".
This "backdoor access" was deliberate, all Router manufacturers have done this,
almost all of them are manufactured in China in any event, not just Huawei!

No security concerns whatsoever, it would be commercial suicide to do so - totally unsubstantiated...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/trum...ttle-plan.html

[Davexl]

An update on the situation in Hong Kong:

Hong Kong election disqualifications and arrests deepen 'terror' fears

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...ualifications/

[GTM 3442]

This article represents the kind of stupidity and paranoia coming out of the Trump "regime",
such is the US' desperation to demonise Huawei at all costs.

So much for Fair Global Competition!

Imagine how the US would respond if Intel Corporation's global chip fabrication was totally threatened?

Totally unsubstantiated security risks based on ignorance over how your common Router works.
Until recently, almost all Routers has easy default access usernames and passwords, to allow the user to manage the router, and to allow the ISP eg Spark & Vodafone to remotely manage the Router on your behalf. And they attempt to call this "Backdoor Access".
This "backdoor access" was deliberate, all Router manufacturers have done this,
almost all of them are manufactured in China in any event, not just Huawei!

No security concerns whatsoever, it would be commercial suicide to do so - totally unsubstantiated...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/trum...ttle-plan.html

Th CNBC article is so lightweight that a butterfly's f*rt would blow it away. I doubt that whoever wrote the CNBC article had read the Finite State report.

I am almost certain that the "senior administration official" has not read the Finite State report.

The issue is not the default user service and administration accounts. However it would have been better if the comparisons had been with devices from other, higher-profile brands.

[Davexl]

Th CNBC article is so lightweight that a butterfly's f*rt would blow it away. I doubt that whoever wrote the CNBC article had read the Finite State report.

I am almost certain that the "senior administration official" has not read the Finite State report.

The issue is not the default user service and administration accounts. However it would have been better if the comparisons had been with devices from other, higher-profile brands.

Yes, the REAL issue is NOT about default user service and administration accounts, but that is the pathetic level of debate the US had dropped to.

The real issue is about the security risks of deploying Huawei in the "Core" of the 5G network, vs the "Radio Access Network" and being able to secure it correctly against malfeasance by a foreign state. With 5G, most of the intelligence is in the Core, but an increasing level of intelligence is distributed to the RAN.

In NZ, the GCSB overruled Spark's early decision to deploy Huawei only to the RAN, to the more intelligence limited part of the network. Spark recently went with Samsung.

In the UK, they initially limited Huawei 5G to 30% of the network in the RAN only, and stated they could "manage" the security risk. Then under pressure by Pompeo and their own Conservatives, they relented to removing Huawei from their earlier 3G / 4G Huawei networks over a period of years as the 5G option became untenable.

By far, the UK had the most experience with using Huawei networks, almost 20 years, with a similar timeframe in NZ. The UK security establishment believed it was possible to "manage" the security situation (see above post), the GCSB which didn't have the internal resources to assess the situation, "said" it wasn't possible. I presume ASIO in Australia, (the Australian Signals directorate) convinced them.

The reality is that Ericsson (& Nokia also??) manufacture in China, alongside Huawei, the manufacturing risks are identical, and so are the deployment risks. Operating systems code could be locked down and secured by using check-summing techniques to verify the code. The only significant risks relate to update code, being deployed without prior security vetting, or a new piece of firmware inserted redirecting a data flow elsewhere from the RAN.

The reality now, is that Huawei 5G deployment has been rendered highly risky, not for security reasons but for supply-chain risk, thanks to the US. (See Post 61)

GTM - I would be interested in hearing about the Finite State report, if it can be linked to or summarised for the Geopolitical thread. Otherwise we are probably both straying off-topic and getting too technical for this debate...