Geo Political Risk

[mike2020]

Xi and Putin urge Nato to rule out expansion as Ukraine tensions rise

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ions-grow-west

Excerpt:
"The statement also devoted an entire section on the two sides’ shared understanding of “democracy” and claimed both countries “have long-standing traditions of democracy”. But they said that the advocacy of democracy and human rights “must not be used to put pressure on other countries”."

Almost fell off my chair laughing...!
Russia will implode one day when its people rise up and demand democracy (held down by assassinations & imprisonment) and the same for China (when its American educated diaspora spread democratic ideals within the populace, by word of mouth if necessary)...

Otherwise, a very well written article with good points to consider for all sides of the argument...

Democracy. I am betting there is a greater chance of social discord and disorder on a very large scale in 2024 if Trump makes a comeback. I think we all had a narrow escape last time.

[Panda-NZ-]

To be expected from the US, greater fool. Everything they do in military action in their minds is justified - their people cannot be at fault unless they say so.

Still necessary to keep international order.

Other countries like canada (their real friends rather than North Korea) can help them change their ways.

The powell doctrine assuming its actually followed is a reasonable set of principles.

[maclir]

I was bemused when listening to an interview with the producer of the recent documentary about the Navy SEAL accused of murder to hear "America's moral authority" invoked, as in the incident weakened it. What Americans don't seem to understand, and I lived there for a number of years, is that if they ever had it - and Native Americans, the people of Haiti, for example, would dispute they ever did; but if they did, they lost it in the 1960s.

[greater fool]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...-advice-516795

[maclir]

Thanks for reinfocring my point, g_f, the article you link to includes "Still, Powell may yet have the last laugh: Today, with 20 years of post-9/11 wars evoking the same feelings of regret that inspired the original doctrine, the arc of American foreign policy seems finally to be bending back in the direction of his prudent guidance.".

The last laugh???? Only an American would see the tragedy of American military intervention in such a light.

[Waltzing]

forget this doctrine, that doctrine wall paper the doctrine...

in the end it comes down to trade...

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/05/e...hnk/index.html

[Davexl]

Democracy. I am betting there is a greater chance of social discord and disorder on a very large scale in 2024 if Trump makes a comeback. I think we all had a narrow escape last time.

Interesting thought Mike...

Will the US carry on degenerating further if the Republican Party remains with its Trumpian grip at the upcoming midterm elections ?

Will China trend to becoming more peaceful in its transitions of power from President Xi to whoever else, or remain unstable as its power grows further ?

https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/china-...ed-xi-jinping/

[Balance]

https://time.com/6144109/russia-ukra...or-medvedchuk/

Poke a Lion long or hard enough and it is a matter of when it will retaliate.

And this lion, Russia, has sharp fangs and claws.

[Davexl]

https://time.com/6144109/russia-ukra...or-medvedchuk/

Poke a Lion long or hard enough and it is a matter of when it will retaliate.

And this lion, Russia, has sharp fangs and claws.

Fascinating article Balance, showing deep insights of the personal with the political from good ole Time magazine...

[Davexl]

forget this doctrine, that doctrine wall paper the doctrine...

in the end it comes down to trade...

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/05/e...hnk/index.html

Interesting that China is only expected to grow at 4.8% this year (down from 8%!) and that its economy is nine times bigger than Russia's.
I wonder if we will ever see the nuclear option of removing SWIFT from Russia, and whether that might be considered a declaration of war...

If only we could use trade alone to resolve our differences as NZ does as a small exposed economy, rather than competing ideology getting in the way between powerful nations...