Geo Political Risk

[Balance]

No, I mean what I wrote

Fair enough.

To me, Ukraine was part of the USSR and a buffer against NATO before it broke off from the USSR. Just like Cuba was part of the US sphere of influence until it turned communist under Castro.

So the Russians see a former ally becoming a potential threat just as US saw Cuba as a threat.

[Bobdn]

Not sure why NATO (ie the US) just doesn't declare that the Ukraine is never going to be included in NATO. It's never going to be - everyone knows this. Just one simple statement and the crisis is over.

I am enjoying the surge in commodity prices so I'm feeling conflicted

[tzbang]

Russia wants more than a statement.. they want some kind of guarantee (not that I'm sure what the difference is). But yeah, Russia feels surrounded and rightly so. They've asked how the US would respond if Russia and China started encircling them with military positions. I don't get why they just don't agree that Ukraine will never be part of Nato — and yet is still considered a close ally and will be protected as such. Ukraine remains independent and safe in knowing that Nato has their back. Russia feels less threatened and won't have US missile systems surrounding their boarder.

[Panda-NZ-]

Why do countries feel like they benefit from NATO.

Maybe since Russia is aggresive and ruthless and can change that position at any time and focus on cooperation instead.

[mcdongle]

Actually the opposite is happening. Russia's aggression has brought the US and Europe closer together than ever.
Europe can't defend itself anyway, look at Germany, weak. The US remains the backbone of NATO at this time...

No it hasnt. France and Germany have been negotiating with Russia without the USA

[mcdongle]

People need to ask why the recent large energy deal between Russia and China will be paid in euros. And not the Ruble or Yuan which they can currently use.

[Davexl]

No it hasnt. France and Germany have been negotiating with Russia without the USA

Separate talks - 2 track talks if you like, one with the Europeans, a 2nd set including the US. Germany has already agreed, or been strong-armed by the US, into sacrificing any agreement between itself and Russia over Nord Stream 2, if Russia attack Ukraine...
The US will usually get the final say, as they are the guarantor of European security.

[Panda-NZ-]

An internal coup is the best and cheapest option. You can't use nukes on your own people.

Though the Putin regime will probably conveniently lose some of these weapons to anti western terror groups if he is ousted.

[Davexl]

04:08 GMT (17:08 NZDT) Guardian report:

"Estonia says battle groups are moving ahead in a likely attack to occupy “key terrain,” contradicting Moscow’s insistence of a pullback, Reuters is reporting.

Mikk Marran, director general of the Estonian foreign intelligence service, said he is aware of around 10 battle groups of troops moving toward the Ukrainian border, where it estimates about 170,000 soldiers are already deployed.
The attack would include missile bombardment and the occupation of “key terrain,” he added."

**Hope the Guardian & Reuters verified this**


From Reuters 8.56 am NZDT (Full-text of original news item)

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...an-2022-02-16/

[Balance]

Here’s why the US is war mongering against Russia over the Ukraine :

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-cri...about-germany/

It’s all about driving a wedge between Germany & Russia before these two countries get even closer from an economic & political point of view.