Geo Political Risk

[Bjauck]

Fair enough.

To me, Ukraine was part of the USSR and a buffer against NATO before it broke off from the USSR. Just like Cuba was part of the US sphere of influence until it turned communist under Castro.

So the Russians see a former ally becoming a potential threat just as US saw Cuba as a threat.

That too. However I was also looking at the proximity, to the EU and the USA, of Cuba and Ukraine too.

[LEMON]

Here’s why the US is war mongering against Russia over the Ukraine :

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-cri...about-germany/

It’s all about driving a wedge between Germany & Russia before these two countries get even closer from an economic & political point of view.

Thanks for sharing Balance, I have been looking for something like this

Same scenario plays out in multiple countries

Libya & Iraq wanting to change the price of a barrel to Euro to exchange

Syria pipeline to Iran

Venezuela?

China and Russia now exchange oil and energy off the US dollar,
Russia reserves more gold and less US dollars, im sure China is taking the same stance?

[Panda-NZ-]

Ukraine should decide their own future.

Not even russians want vlad.. ie without the stuffing ballots and state run news etc

[mcdongle]

But what does America really think about the EU..

Victoria Newland said.... **** the EU.
And the French submarine deal with Australia which the Americans turned over, Which really pissed the French off.
Which all points to Europe, excluding the UK moving away to trade with the east more.

[Biscuit]

Here’s why the US is war mongering against Russia over the Ukraine :

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-cri...about-germany/

It’s all about driving a wedge between Germany & Russia before these two countries get even closer from an economic & political point of view.

Why post stuff from a trashy right-wing conspiracy theory website? Why read trash, let alone spread it? Do you think that America fought in WWI, WWII, and the cold war to separate Germany and Russia? That is clearly a load of codswollop. By the time America became involved in WWI, the Russians were busy having a revolution and Germany's war with Britain and France was at a stand-still while Germany was slowly being pushed to collapse. The Americans only turned up at the very end.

It's very clear that Russia is the aggressor today (it has already annexed Crimea and is working on chipping away at Eastern Ukraine and has now amassed an invasion army on Ukraine's doorstep) and America is rightly resisting that aggression.

[Bjauck]

But what does America really think about the EU..

Victoria Newland said.... **** the EU.
And the French submarine deal with Australia which the Americans turned over, Which really pissed the French off.
Which all points to Europe, excluding the UK moving away to trade with the east more.

The UK will only be able to have a Free Trade Deal with the USA on American terms. If the British diverge too far from alignment with the EU, necessitating a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, then Congress and Irish-American Biden won't enter a deal with the UK. The UK has made itself into a bit of a neutered mouse on the World stage.

[Davexl]

Some 101's in the current build-up...

Twenty questions (and expert answers) about what’s happening with Ukraine and Russia

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...55DD7oz4_KiKQJ

[Davexl]

Make your OWN assessments of RISK & prepare to (possibly) hunker down...

Market Recovery from Geopolitical Events

Days Between Event and S&P 500 Recovery to Pre-Event Levels

https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/8724580/embed?auto=1

PS Left-off graphic. Pearl Harbour attack S&P500 recovery was a little over 300 days...

"This suggests that sanctions, not the threat of invasion itself, may be more of a tangible risk factor for the international economy. Escalating measures on Russia, as telegraphed by the United States and its partners, will make waves if they target major Russian financial institutions and debt markets, impacting both Russian markets and their Western creditors. The architects of these sanctions will calibrate the rollout of these measures to minimize the impact on US and European stakeholders, but if the Biden administration responds forcefully to Russian behavior, it will be asking global citizens as well as firms to share the burden. Russia’s major exports, hydrocarbons and minerals, are internationally traded commodities. Restrictions of supply (or anticipated restrictions) will send fuel prices upward, whether this is due to the sanctions themselves or, more likely, Russia’s retaliation. This will be felt at the pump and, shortly thereafter, in the prices of everyday goods, as shippers pass operational costs onto consumers."

—Julia Friedlander is the C. Boyden Gray senior fellow and director of the Economic Statecraft Initiative in the GeoEconomics Center, and a former US Treasury Department official.

[Davexl]

From Australia, Peter Dutton in the Guardian

9m ago 21:28

Russia is on the brink of an “all-out conflict” in Ukraine, according to Australia’s defence minister.

Peter Dutton told Australian broadcaster, the Nine Network, on Friday:It’s tragic and we’ll see terrible scenes unfolding.

You would expect that President Putin, who obviously can’t be taken at his word, is manufacturing some sort of trigger, or is in the process of executing the final stages of his plan to go into Ukraine.”

Dutton said while European leaders have attempted to prevent a conflict in Ukraine, he believed Putin was intent on military action.

That really is going to result in the loss of innocent life.

We’ve seen it before in eastern Europe, we don’t want it repeated but we live in a very uncertain world.
This is an issue Nato and Europe need to deal with and those European leaders really need to step up and put the pressure, even more pressure, on Russia to stop them.”

The defence minister said Australia has not been asked to provide troops to Ukraine, should there be any military retaliation.

[mcdongle]

But will the European leaders step up.

Australia does and says what the US tells them to