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  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwico View Post
    That was the argument in the office on Friday. Was it better to vote National and risk the winners being Labour and the loons or to vote Labour and hope they can get in without the loons. Time will tell as to what she decides.
    Ditto around my traps. It's impossible to know exactly , but it seems from my observations that the Kermits really gave Labour a boost with their tax nonsense. Look at the traditional farming/blue areas.

  2. #52
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    With all her new blue voters she will have to keep in the center to reward and keep them so this is bad news for the Greens IMO, status quo for the market as there was little uncertainty in the outcome.

  3. #53
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    I'd like to think you are right, if you pardon the pun, but I still dont think she will treat oil drilling and mining favourably.

    In my view, NZ needs these income sources, to pay for all the welfare largesse .

  4. #54
    On my rounds and just a little behind..
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    Quote Originally Posted by Getty View Post
    The people have spoken through the ballot.

    Who will make money, and who may make less? .
    All things being equal, the most money will be made by the MM, BP, HA, Bandidos and Comancheros.
    Unfortunately, they don’t have a listing on the NZX.

    Less facetiously, it would seem prudent to investigate unlisted, new companies that will reap the financial rewards coming from the DHB and education overhaul/revolutions. Plenty of cash is going to those areas over the next 3-5 yrs and there is much empire building to be had.

  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by nztx View Post
    As we have seen elsewhere .. the likely scenario is

    1. "We have Major Project X and are ready to go"
    2. "Ooops we now find grave absence of eager talent & skills needed for job"
    3. "We now try to import foreign Contractors especially to do Project"

    seen this before ?

    Let's face it fruit on trees rotting for lack of local talent, foreign fisheries workers & Dairy workers preferred..
    while the usual quotient of our local lazy bums sleep soundly (on Govt Life Support until midday) not wanting to know
    or lift a finger ..

    Similar variants seen in Twyford's failed Kiwi House building scheme too - "No local skillsets for jobs available or even remotely interested - so we import them in from elsewhere" .. remember that during Twyford's KiwiFail days ?

    How does that synopsis look .. based on the Labor Govt's recent past record on projects ?
    Good points nztx.
    While primary produce such as fruit falls to the ground unpicked, with the resultant loss of revenue & tax base, Rangitahi are sitting around as a drain on the taxpayer, being indoctrinated by the likes of the Maori party & Labours Maori caucus that they have been colonised, but are really the landlords of the nation.

    What will Willie Jackson, the minister of Employment, have to say about that, or more to the point, what will he do about it?

  6. #56
    Vision over Visibility
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    Some thoughts to start with

    EBO - Increase focus on Life sciences, assist with COVID vaccine & response once available, more pharmaceuticals access / spend and increase health grants
    ABA - Increase dental funding
    FBU - Benefit from proposed Infrastructure $bn spend (assuming FBU can profitably deliver...) across initiatives such as light rail, LGWM etc
    CEN / MEL -could benefit from positive contract negotiations with Rio re Smelter. Tailwind also from lower interest rates, so yield more attractive. Support 100% renewable goal (MEL 100% already?)
    MFT - Ongoing focus to keep NZD low v USD, so will increase offshore earnings. Essential Service - Any continued lockdowns and systemic shift to online drive logistics delivery and warehousing
    FRE- Similar to MFT less so the NZD angle.
    ATM/FPH. Some benefit from ongoing weakened NZD. FPH assist with covid vaccine response once available?
    ZEL? - Speculative upside... They "potentially" have the infrastructure/expertise to support the Govt Hydrogen refuelling network proposed approach and 100% renewable goal. Could be a way for them to transition away from hydrocarbon (or at least be seen to..) and position for future
    EVO - $1.7bn in Education. Increase funding for pay parity. "We've seen significant increases in funding for ECE, we're going to continue that - Hipkins". Additional tailwinds from flow through of Te Reo education funding
    Others in Education sector? - Workforce incentive allowance directed into training and re-training (eg due COVID displacement). A big focus on upskilling, certification etc
    Cannabis Companies? - eg CBD. Tailwind should referendum pass, regulation implemented, controlled manufacturer and distribution
    RBD - Increased Govt welfare, flow through to consumer = continued / more spend on cyclical foods.
    AWF - The "Business of Govt" will have more funding and more allocation through to Private sector via consultancy, advisory etc. Expect increase in resource demand and contractors into Govt.

  7. #57
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    Great work Hamish, thanks for the thought & work that went into your post.

  8. #58
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    So a couple of hours in, infrastructure companies are doing well, gentailers not so much. Early indication of money in one direction and compliance costs in the other?

  9. #59
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nztx View Post
    The worrying part is that the current & continuing "Populist Party of Socialist Ideals" could on it's own lead the
    Country badly down the garden path, with their scant understandings of Financial & Economic matters

    Frankly - would you trust some of the resident talent even with an empty Lolly packet ?
    No not at all ...but as long as the Greens don't have much say I'll be happier to see how Cindy and Team drive forward with their plans and prob hit a wall of reality in time esp. around employment + Debt to GDP ... I'm sure the gap between the Rich and poor will increase even more in 3yrs ... is the way of Globalism...
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  10. #60
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    In the shorter-term, I'm more concerned with the implications of the US election outcome. Either way, I suspect there will be internal conflict which will not bode well for markets.

    By the time that settles down, no doubt it will coincide with the various tinkering that is expected (and ostensibly supported by a number of business owners) by Labour.

    2021 will be another interesting year. Anything is probably better than 2020 though!
    Last edited by Zaphod; 19-10-2020 at 05:21 PM.

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