Labour govt 2020-23

[Logen Ninefingers]

Sort of akin to an alcoholic who would rather remain in a drunken state so they don't have to experience the painful hangover.

Panda; don't lose sight of the painful reality that ALL artificial "highs" will eventually be followed by artificial lows.

Yes, it’s like saying the answer to drug abuse is more drug abuse - in ever greater quantities - simply because people don’t want to deal with the consequences.

The problem is that the ‘drug abusers’ have control of the government. Both major parties rely on their support and are now effectively held hostage by them - so this large group can continue to loot the government finances and banking system with impunity. It won’t end well - but for the moment, this selfish greedfest continues.

[FTG]

Not with property.

Even with property I'm afraid. :-(

The Japanese asset (read property) bubble of the mid-late 80's is a classic case in point.

Of course, as we know but sometimes forget, any market can remain irrational for far longer than the anticipated. But just like the law of gravity the universal law of artificial highs eventually being followed by an artificial low ALWAYS prevails.

[Logen Ninefingers]

A property crash, as with most things (financial crises, pandemics, major wars) is simply not conceivable to most human minds. They can’t believe it will happen, until it happens. They delight in pointing out just how long those who make the warnings have been ‘wrong’ for. But history tells us that property markets can - and do - crash. Most notably it happened in Japan, it happened in the US, it happened in Ireland. All major and advanced economies.

[Baa_Baa]

Yes, it’s like saying the answer to drug abuse is more drug abuse - in ever greater quantities - simply because people don’t want to deal with the consequences.

The problem is that the ‘drug abusers’ have control of the government. Both major parties rely on their support and are now effectively held hostage by them - so this large group can continue to loot the government finances and banking system with impunity. It won’t end well - but for the moment, this selfish greedfest continues.

It's far from ideal, and I admire the implication of your idealogical position being (excuse my interpretation) what's best for all of society, however if you have seen that it is going to continue for a while but at some point it all turns to custard, regardless of how that happens, at some stage one needs imo to take a selfish viewpoint and decide what they, personally, are going to do. The instincts of self accumulation and preservation of wealth is deeply rooted in those who have it. They also presumably in toto have the smarts to ride the dysfunction while it lasts and be gone when the **** hits the fan.

[Logen Ninefingers]

It's far from ideal, and I admire the implication of your idealogical position being (excuse my interpretation) what's best for all of society, however if you have seen that it is going to continue for a while but at some point it all turns to custard, regardless of how that happens, at some stage one needs imo to take a selfish viewpoint and decide what they, personally, are going to do. The instincts of self accumulation and preservation of wealth is deeply rooted in those who have it. They also presumably in toto have the smarts to ride the dysfunction while it lasts and be gone when the **** hits the fan.

I guess what’s best for society is one aspect, but when inflation shows up its the purchasing power of all our money that goes down the tubes, so there is certainly self interest there as well. When will general price inflation kick in? Again, some say that because it hasn’t happened yet it won’t happen. If it does we will have big problems, with house prices having far outstripped wages and salaries.

The idea that there are a whole bunch of savy people out there that can time the housing market and will be able to get out has already proven to be a fallacy I would say. Take this COVID crisis for example: all those people that overpaid needed saving. Huge fears the property market would crash, kitchen sink thrown into saving it, market responds by taking all that stimulus and rocketing higher. So it’s an attempted bail-out that’s gone pear-shaped.

In a bad market, houses are highly illiquid. I can list shares and sell them in a minute. That’s a liquid investment. You can’t do that with a house. So a nice quick escape during a crash wouldn’t be possible I’m afraid.

[fungus pudding]

I guess what’s best for society is one aspect, but when inflation shows up its the purchasing power of all our money that goes down the tubes, so there is certainly self interest there as well. When will general price inflation kick in? Again, some say that because it hasn’t happened yet it won’t happen. If it does we will have big problems, with house prices having far outstripped wages and salaries.

The idea that there are a whole bunch of savy people out there that can time the housing market and will be able to get out has already proven to be a fallacy I would say. Take this COVID crisis for example: all those people that overpaid needed saving. Huge fears the property market would crash, kitchen sink thrown into saving it, market responds by taking all that stimulus and rocketing higher. So it’s an attempted bail-out that’s gone pear-shaped.

In a bad market, houses are highly illiquid. I can list shares and sell them in a minute. That’s a liquid investment. You can’t do that with a house. So a nice quick escape during a crash wouldn’t be possible I’m afraid.

You can do that with a house; albeit at a punishing price - just like shares at the wrong time.

[Balance]

The long term trend of house prices is up.

Unlike shares, a house is a home as well as an investment.

Location obviously is all important as is long term thinking.

[iceman]

An article written by Steven Joyce on housing in the Herald today worth reading

[artemis]

An article written by Steven Joyce on housing in the Herald today worth reading

Yes it is worth reading (paywalled). One aspect Mr Joyce mentions is that it is very common to hear that National caused a housing crisis by selling off a massive number of state houses. Mr Joyce correctly points out that most of these went to Community Housing Providers at a serious discount and their tenants are eligible for income related (cheap as chips) rent and support from the CHP.

Of the others sold off most went to Panuku and similar for redevelopment, eg redevelopment. Some were sold because there was no demand for the size and the location - there was rather less demand then and none at all in some places.

Now it's back to central government to build, manage and be kind to tenants.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Yes it is worth reading (paywalled). One aspect Mr Joyce mentions is that it is very common to hear that National caused a housing crisis by selling off a massive number of state houses. Mr Joyce correctly points out that most of these went to Community Housing Providers at a serious discount and their tenants are eligible for income related (cheap as chips) rent and support from the CHP.

Of the others sold off most went to Panuku and similar for redevelopment, eg redevelopment. Some were sold because there was no demand for the size and the location - there was rather less demand then and none at all in some places.

Now it's back to central government to build, manage and be kind to tenants.

The Labour whinge doesn’t make sense anyway, because if they sold a house and someone bought it, that hasn’t reduced the housing stock. Someone will still be living in that house.

But this is another example of Labour trying to make out that the housing crisis is about homelessness, rather than it always having been an umbrella term that covers both the homelessness issue and the housing affordability issue.

I find it deeply cynical that Labour has pivoted from the clear emphasis on KiwiBuild (addressing the affordability issue) to now focus almost solely on social housing. It makes me believe that there was never any intention to look after the people that originally voted for Labour because they believed Labour’s promises around KiwiBuild. Labour simply needed their votes at that election, and did what it took to secure them by telling lies. It represents the biggest broken promise in NZ political history in my view. And yet you often see their supporters saying “at least they tried”. The alleged try was absolutely pitiful, mainly seeming to consist of photos of Twyford standing round in flouro vest and hard hat grinning.