Labour govt 2020-23

[BlackPeter]

Personally I think Hendy lost all credibility a long time ago with all his alarmist predictions, hardly any that have been close to the mark and receiving many millions of dollars from Government to his private business for his endless "work" for them.
Like mid November 21 when he predicted 300 daily cases about to hit, the huge numbers of deaths he has forecasted and on and on it goes.

...

Did he? The closest I could find (and announced by Ashley Bloomfield) was 200 cases (based on modelling) per day:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-z...-to-cases.html

7:45pm - There are 53 COVID-19 cases in hospital, with an average age of 47 and three people in intensive care - but new modelling predicts that near the end of November, we'll be hitting 200 cases a day and 150 people could be in hospital.

So - it was not 300 but 200 cases predicted by modelling. Actually - I just checked the daily number of infections we had towards end of November in NZ. The seven day average was plateauing around 200 cases per day.

So - and you are flaming him for providing an absolutly correct estimate based on modelling? Makes one pretty speechless, doesn't it. What did you wanted him to do - make up some numbers Iceman likes, but which would have been wrong?

You are demonstrating a quite disturbing view of what an academics should do if you want them to lie for the populists ...

Apart from the prediction having been spot on ... just looking into the order of magnitude of daily cases ... the UK have currently some 150,000 new cases every day, which would be transferred to NZ something like 12,500 cases per day. So - was this estimate based on modelling of 200 cases per day for NZ really that outrageous (apart from having been absolutely spot on)? I think they have been quite conservative ... and maybe, just maybe, our government did an outstanding job probably combined with a huge bucket of good luck.

I see no reason why anybody would lose for this absolutely spot on estimate their academical credibility (assuming this estimate came from him anyway). I must say his academical credibility got a huge push up, what I unfortunately can't say about yours ...

Are you sure you still want to stick with this statement? Thinking about your credibility for flaming people for all the wrong reasons?

...

Wiles lost credibility when she was busy on her social media telling everyone to follow the rules but then go to the beach with a friend herself during lockdown, in a clear breach of the rules.

...

Well, it sounds like you've been away since some anonymous Blockwart on social media made said accusation against Wiles. We do know in the meantime that she cycled with her friend (I think even part of her bubble) to the beach and chatted with her outside and unmasked. No Covid restrictions violated ... wearing masks outside in uncrowded areas is not a requirement.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...lockdown-rules

Ah yes ... and even if she would have flouted the Covid restrictions (which she didn't) - how would this have impacted on her academical credibility?

Einstein didn't loose his academical credibility when he got a speeding ticket, didn't he? (Actually this is hypothetical, I don't know, whether he did, but hey, he might have ;

Quite easy to make wrong accusations and to smear other peoples good names by using misinformation ...

[artemis]

....
Not so long ago we had a few scientists and academics sign a letter objecting to maori tales being given equal standing to conventional science teachings in our schools. Most of them were shut up, demoted or moved on. The Government obviously didn't like it. Another example of Government deciding which academics & scientists should be allowed to speak up.

Dr Wiles was front and centre in the 2000 sig letter in a sort of response to the above letter in the Listener. She tweeted -

Calling all academics in Aotearoa New Zealand. Add your name to the open letter if you are also appalled by that letter claiming to defend science published last week in the NZ Listener. It’s caused untold harm and hurt & points to major problems with some of our colleagues.

That seems be be a mix of opinion and unspecific fact. Fair enough. But the response to the letter and to her, the other initiator of the letter and by implication the signatories was swift and brutal. Alongside the reactions to the Royal Society of NZ and the Auckland Uni CC. Most responses astonished, and not in a good way.

Court cases, investigations and symposia could be considered attempts at deflection with hope the issues will fall off the front page. I couldn't possibly comment.

[iceman]

Did he? The closest I could find (and announced by Ashley Bloomfield) was 200 cases (based on modelling) per day:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-z...-to-cases.html



So - it was not 300 but 200 cases predicted by modelling. From memory we had more than hundred cases per day for some weeks, didn't we? Pretty good estimate, isn't it?

..

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/...endy-modelling

[iceman]

Dr Wiles was front and centre in the 2000 sig letter in a sort of response to the above letter in the Listener. She tweeted -

Calling all academics in Aotearoa New Zealand. Add your name to the open letter if you are also appalled by that letter claiming to defend science published last week in the NZ Listener. It’s caused untold harm and hurt & points to major problems with some of our colleagues.

That seems be be a mix of opinion and unspecific fact. Fair enough. But the response to the letter and to her, the other initiator of the letter and by implication the signatories was swift and brutal. Alongside the reactions to the Royal Society of NZ and the Auckland Uni CC. Most responses astonished, and not in a good way.

Court cases, investigations and symposia could be considered attempts at deflection with hope the issues will fall off the front page. I couldn't possibly comment.

Exactly what I was referring to artemis thank you. Her posts speak for themselves.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/...endy-modelling

OK - so your link confirms that at least one media outlet reported about an model predicting "as high as 300 cases.

Shaun Hendy said case numbers were expected to get as high as 300 a day before tapering off in the current most likely scenario

Still a pretty good estimate given that numbers actually plateaued towards the end of November around 200 (with a peak of 222 on November 16th). Wouldn't you agree?

Certainly not a reason for losing academical credibility - his estimate was spot on given the uncertainties of an unknown virus and an unpredictable behaviour of the population ...

Actually - I think you should stop digging and apologise to the two scientists whose names you smeared. No evidence for their academical credibility impacted ...

We understand that you don't like their message, but seriously - shooting the messenger for not liking the message is not a behaviour anybody should be proud off.

[davflaws]

Court cases, investigations and symposia could be considered attempts at deflection with hope the issues will fall off the front page. I couldn't possibly comment.

I couldn't either - because I don't understand the point you were trying to make. Please explain further.

[Balance]

Exactly what I was referring to artemis thank you. Her posts speak for themselves.

Add academia now to the list as well :

[greater fool]

OK - so your link confirms that at least one media outlet reported about an model predicting "as high as 300 cases.

(................ Self serving drivel deleted................ Getting the last word in doesn't mean your correct BP, no matter how often you do it. )

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...NBCOX7IHROO5Y/

[greater fool]

OK - so your link confirms that at least one media outlet reported about an model predicting "as high as 300 cases.

Still a pretty good estimate given that numbers actually plateaued towards the end of November around 200 (with a peak of 222 on November 16th). Wouldn't you agree?

Certainly not a reason for losing academical credibility - his estimate was spot on given the uncertainties of an unknown virus and an unpredictable behaviour of the population ...

Actually - I think you should stop digging and apologise to the two scientists whose names you smeared. No evidence for their academical credibility impacted ...

We understand that you don't like their message, but seriously - shooting the messenger for not liking the message is not a behaviour anybody should be proud off.

Thanks for this. A badge worth sharing.

Badge of Honor.jpg

Puerile BP. Fragile?


Since you are an expert in everything BP, perhaps you could validate, for those less endowed, the Shaun Hendy modelling;

https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs...9-strategy.pdf


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-z...it-really.html

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/10/covid-19-new-zealand-probably-won-t-get-back-to-alert-level-1-normality-again-shaun-hendy.html

[iceman]

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