HMY - Harmoney Corp Limited

**nztx** · 16-02-2021, 10:12 PM

Originally Posted by Gerald

72% of shares in escrow so not too much liquidity even if you look at daily volumes.

what there are out there from retail are probably nursing fairly heavy red ink anyway & not looking at realising losses
- but hoping for better fortunes ..

In the same boat I'd probably not be too happy with $1.30 / share or roughly 1/3 of what I'd paid at IPO
now sitting out the back door ..

**Wsp** · 16-02-2021, 10:14 PM

Originally Posted by Scrunch

It all depends on the customer base you are attracting and often there is little to no visibility on this unless you are inside the outfit in question. Many years ago I worked in for one of the big banks in their credit card area. This is unsecured lending but it was very profitable business unit. In the right circumstances unsecured lending can work well.

I have some insights into their customer base as I was a retail investor (lender) through their platform starting December 2014 and invested in my last loan in March 2020. I invested in over 1,000 loans. Less than 2% of those loans were written off. Of the loans that are still active, only 2 are in arrears. So overall I feel they do a good job of assessing credit risk through their automated systems. Their assessment of credit risk certainly improved over time as it was mainly some of my early loans that were written off. After write offs and fees I was making around 12.5% per annum.

**nztx** · 16-02-2021, 10:24 PM

It is quite possible that Jun 30 2020 saw some hefty Covid 19 provisioning FY & the 4 months to 31 Oct 2020
then saw significant reversal to put provision movement into Recovery position (or Negative expense presented)

But that would be an extraordinary one off expense reversal IMO

**Classic** · 16-02-2021, 11:32 PM

I had quite a bit less than you , as I was slowly scaling up.
When they first started out there was a consistent large selection of loans to choose from. Admittedly some of them looked pretty dubious from a fact checking perspective.
In the end, it felt like they were shafting the retail investors, as the loan quality went downhill.
I still have a bit of money in there, making ~16% all up, which I was very happy with.
So IMO the model works when directly investing.
I was very disappointed when they dumped the retail investors.

I was very dubious about the shares though, so didn't invest. Thankfully....

**winner69** · 17-02-2021, 12:23 AM

Dont Heartland lend zillions through the Harmoney platform ....probably unsecured

**Beagle** · 17-02-2021, 10:53 AM

Originally Posted by nztx

Yes AU $3.50 issue price or around NZD 3.70 / 3.75

From prospectus (page 98) :

Pro forma Historical NPAT

2018 FY (LOSS 6.4 Million)
2019 FY (LOSS 6.1 Million)
2020 FY (LOSS 6.99 Million)

Forecast:

4 Mths to Oct 20 Forecast Proforma SURPLUS 1.2 Million

For my money its very important to look at the full history of the company. Extrapolating out a theoretical surplus of $3.6m from those 4 months operations is definitely not something I would do in an attempt to build any sort of theoretical investment case, especially given my deep cynicism with materially different short term performance immediately before a float. There is a consistent pattern of full year losses there and they are audited figures.

As Baa Baa has observed, the trend is definitely not your friend. This is definitely not for me.

**winner69** · 17-02-2021, 03:41 PM

the curved down trend line on baabaa's chart seems to be getting steeper today

**nztx** · 17-02-2021, 03:45 PM

Originally Posted by Beagle

For my money its very important to look at the full history of the company. Extrapolating out a theoretical surplus of $3.6m from those 4 months operations is definitely not something I would do in an attempt to build any sort of theoretical investment case, especially given my deep cynicism with materially different short term performance immediately before a float. There is a consistent pattern of full year losses there and they are audited figures.

As Baa Baa has observed, the trend is definitely not your friend. This is definitely not for me.

Agree -- the 4 months looks like a flash in the pan one off prior period recovery rather than consistent improve

Pre IPO - marketing well down & other costs

Following on even lower Interest Revenue & Expenses to follow

Growing the loan book must suggest some question on containing costs / risks / exposures etc too in changing times ?