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HMY shares in Aussie are trading at $1.52 which is about NZ$1.64. So could see further falls this week to catch up.
Am I the only one thinking this is way oversold?
Current valuation is $181m.
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What cause sp down almost 12% today?
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Member
Maybe early stage investors who aren't escrowed. If there are any that is. I can't remember how all that worked in the IPO.
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 Originally Posted by Jas001
There are some small institutes selling off from IPO date and thus the SP keeps falling. I guess it is close to the end of sell off cycle based on the total shares they intend to sell. NZ herald premium has one article about the sell off before.
HMY narrowly meets expectations recently but not see any exceeding yet.
One billion Australian loan a year ambition, but just 10 million last month with the new platform launch, a big gap to catch up. It needs to show significant new loan acceleration month by month from now on to prove it can scale quickly in volume to meet its ambition.
It still has bright future but just need more proof on healthy growth (with good debt control).
It is a high risk IT growth stock, it is in high risk finance industry, it is an IPO stock with less than 1 year listing company experience. High risk means high return also.
My expectations for 1 year - down up to 20%, up 100% to 200% potential. A good bet at current SP.
Further Risk in that any one of the dual economies may experience a downturn
Leverage that further with expansionary big loan facilities, a creep up in interim
in interest rates, more pain, more defaults & she could turn to dust faster..
Global economies are volatile, in places badly Covid affected & will remain so for some time
The work of just a few clueless idiots can also just as easily turn Covid Free territories
back into Lock-downs again as well ..
US Fed suggests the central Usury rates to be on the going upwards - which spins
into other economies globally one way or another, like it or not
HMY are new boys on the block - if you like learners in OZ - expect mistakes, Red
ink off the back of large leverage too to get there
If that should happen, dreams of any sort of dividend go out the window as well
I'm with the $1 a share posted earlier as being nearer Fair Value
Sorry .. difficult to get excited by this one & it's ambitious well leveraged
expansion forays over the ditch .. 
Sorry to all those out there riding in on the inflated IPO float costs, but she
just hasn't materially climbed out Red territory sufficiently/at all, barring
some mysterious favourable movements in Doubtfuls provisions to get there..
Last edited by nztx; 11-05-2021 at 12:03 AM.
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Interestingly HMY is to be included in the next MSCI index rebalancing at the end of this month. Given this stock is so illiquid I'd expect buying pressure will mean a bottom is in (for May anyway...).
What a disaster of an IPO.
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Yeah, not much harmony, or money, just plenty of harm.
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Member
Originally Posted by JohnnyTheHorse
Interestingly HMY is to be included in the next MSCI index rebalancing at the end of this month. Given this stock is so illiquid I'd expect buying pressure will mean a bottom is in (for May anyway...).
What a disaster of an IPO.
Where can I find the MSCI index rebalancing announcements?
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A story of big numbers
Like +800% and 100% CAGR
The value of a company is the value of the story
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...109/345905.pdf
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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Originally Posted by winner69
Not sure it is quite right to put out an announcement involving a comparison to a period impacted by a 1 in 100 year event and claiming this year's numbers are therefore a great success... but all about the headline, improving 'the story' and feeling good.
On a separate note, I'm still trying to figure out what makes HMY special as all I see is a finance company - it certainly isn't the first one to use fancy pictures and certain (selected) big numbers.
Last edited by trader_jackson; 13-05-2021 at 09:37 AM.
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Originally Posted by trader_jackson
Not sure it is quite right to put out an announcement involving a comparison to a period impacted by a 1 in 100 year event and claiming this year's numbers are therefore a great success... but all about the headline, improving 'the story' and feeling good.
On a separate note, I'm still trying to figure out what makes HMY special as all I see is a finance company - it certainly isn't the first one to use fancy pictures and certainly (selected) big numbers.
Some would say it's fintech so valuations don't matter.
On a serious note, with the MSCI inclusion I might have to run the ruler through this one and see where the value lies.
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