NZL - NZ Rural Land Co IPO

[blackcap]

Does it actually make any real Cash Profit after stumping up Management fees across to ALF Empire ?

That is gold, but so true. I have looked in depth at the structure and if you wanted an investment in the rural sector, ALF would be the way to go and avoid NZL like the plague.

[nztx]

Let's take a closer look at the borrowing / interest servicing monkey being carried by NZL
also capital movements / issues to ALF for Fees to Management company:

The movement between 2022 accounts & NZX Issued shares appears to be all the Performance
Fee due to ALF associate Management Company which has taken shares (@ $1.65 apiece) in early Sep 2022 so a large impairment now on those 2.5 million shares needs to be booked by ALF & Associates *, currently out the back door by $1.425 m (* depending on whether 50/50 or 100% owned at that time)

Ultimately no new shares issued for direct cash inflow since the Accounts in 2022 issued

Looking at Borrowings -

2021 Year $54.254 million Borrowings outstanding - Ave Interest cost 2.29% at year end - Annualised cost of Interest $ 1.24 m

2021 Accounts comparatives reported Lease revenue of $498 K for 2021 year or part thereof

2022 Year $100.768 million Borrowings outstanding - Ave Interest cost 3.998% at year end - Annualised cost of Interest $ 4.03 m

2022 Accounts comparatives reported Lease revenue of $8.215 m for 2022 year or part thereof and possibly
properties acquired mid late through the year



Looking forward - Interest rates 2021 Average 2.29% 2022 Average 3.998%

Next rollovers for borrowings are going to see considerably higher average rate than 4.0%

Some properties acquired have call options allowing for vendor to repurchase + a margin, but if things
get considerably tighter pushing firesale conditions with hefty interest rates that may be of no
assistance with the buy back options are not exercised

ALF will already be seeing an impairment to market on it's NZL shareholdings and there is risk
if things get tighter even a share swap for performance fees owed may not be most
prudent move if it results in further impairment on a SP continuing it's run downwards
with more red needed to be provided for.

Racking up increased holding & not seeing cash for Management Company Revenues
may also not be most prudent view either in terms of ALF .

Stacking the deck of cards at outset on projections is one thing, but the same structuring
needs to be fit for purpose no matter what the ensuing conditions bring, otherwise the
stack may be at risk of toppling over or showing signs of serious wilting

[nztx]

Holy Kopoli - it's another CAP Raise Boys & Girls

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...533/389758.pdf

Well on rising interest rate tides, borrowing more must have been out of the question

Why not just try to call on the good old Bank of the Shareholders instead
to carry the can @ a solitary buck a shot for some Forestry Turf & Timber
to add to the pile

Earlier Cap raises in easier times went down a prize treat and were a ripping
success - weren't they ? .. well sort of with need for shortfall books out to get things over the line

Note: Rising interest rates on the rest of bundle of $108m Hock being carried
plus further enhancements may catch up later .. but who knows - that could be
a completely different story for another day in the not too distant future ?


Thanks for the update - Mr Chair - Rob Campbell ... but unfortunately still better fish
in abundance to fry elsewhere

[nztx]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...532/389753.pdf

Even a 2.03cps FULLY UN-IMPUTED dividend spit out - to help towards filling the outstretched Cap Raise hand
at a muddy Buck a shot plus whatever warrants attached - for more future hand outstretched exercises

[Nemology]

Let's take a closer look at the borrowing / interest servicing monkey being carried by NZL
also capital movements / issues to ALF for Fees to Management company:

The movement between 2022 accounts & NZX Issued shares appears to be all the Performance
Fee due to ALF associate Management Company which has taken shares (@ $1.65 apiece) in early Sep 2022 so a large impairment now on those 2.5 million shares needs to be booked by ALF & Associates *, currently out the back door by $1.425 m (* depending on whether 50/50 or 100% owned at that time)

Ultimately no new shares issued for direct cash inflow since the Accounts in 2022 issued

Looking at Borrowings -

2021 Year $54.254 million Borrowings outstanding - Ave Interest cost 2.29% at year end - Annualised cost of Interest $ 1.24 m

2021 Accounts comparatives reported Lease revenue of $498 K for 2021 year or part thereof

2022 Year $100.768 million Borrowings outstanding - Ave Interest cost 3.998% at year end - Annualised cost of Interest $ 4.03 m

2022 Accounts comparatives reported Lease revenue of $8.215 m for 2022 year or part thereof and possibly
properties acquired mid late through the year



Looking forward - Interest rates 2021 Average 2.29% 2022 Average 3.998%

Next rollovers for borrowings are going to see considerably higher average rate than 4.0%

Some properties acquired have call options allowing for vendor to repurchase + a margin, but if things
get considerably tighter pushing firesale conditions with hefty interest rates that may be of no
assistance with the buy back options are not exercised

ALF will already be seeing an impairment to market on it's NZL shareholdings and there is risk
if things get tighter even a share swap for performance fees owed may not be most
prudent move if it results in further impairment on a SP continuing it's run downwards
with more red needed to be provided for.

Racking up increased holding & not seeing cash for Management Company Revenues
may also not be most prudent view either in terms of ALF .

Stacking the deck of cards at outset on projections is one thing, but the same structuring
needs to be fit for purpose no matter what the ensuing conditions bring, otherwise the
stack may be at risk of toppling over or showing signs of serious wilting

And how are those interest rates going...6.50% @$29.5m and 6.35% @$46m...other two @6.20%...no wonder muddy boots is looking to the bank of ye olde shareholder

stripped of 'revaluation gains' and tax net income comes in at $3m...+ all that dilution...

[nztx]

And how are those interest rates going...6.50% @$29.5m and 6.35% @$46m...other two @6.20%...no wonder muddy boots is looking to the bank of ye olde shareholder

stripped of 'revaluation gains' and tax net income comes in at $3m...+ all that dilution...

Muddy boots needed to go to Bank of Ye Olde Shareholder to buy some Forestry Trees & Dirt
they signed up for - think that was what the latest Money Raise was for - I may be wrong though.

Possibly a cool $100 million in Hock carries forward at higher ongoing interest ticket rates
that is before adding another $25m dallop of Rabo-Hock on for the new project

Might be why they need to find some new big monied mates to bring on to the Share Register
because the ones already there may have had lingering concerns based on how earlier Hand
Outstretched for Cap Raises efforts went and then the follow on Shortfall on Take up

Wonder if the Chair - Rob Campbell is staying on the board or likely to depart off into the
yonder very soon ?

[nztx]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...533/389758.pdf

Forestry Estate Acquisition and Capital Raise Announcement

On 21 October 2022, NZL announced it had entered into an agreement to acquire up to 100% of a forestry estate
located in Manawatū-Whanganui in the North Island. The estate is comprised of five individual properties with a
total area of approximately 2,383ha.

NZL’s cost to acquire 100% of the estate is approximately $63.7m (subject to final costs), with a settlement date of
15 April 2023. The entire estate will be leased to New Zealand Forest Leasing (NZFL) for a period of 20 years

Muddy Boots need a mere $64m real fast to buy Tree Blocks, in times of increasing Interest Rates

The most earnings and dividend accretive option in the time available is to purchase 100% of the forest funded via
a 1:3 pro-rata rights issue at a cost of $1.00 per share, to raise approximately $38.5M. The Offer will open today to
institutional investors and then the retail component of the Offer opens next Monday, 6 March 2023.

For every 3 new Shares allotted to investors under the Offer, NZL will also allot 1 warrant for no additional
consideration. Each Warrant gives its holder the right, but not the obligation, to subscribe for one additional
ordinary share in NZL on or before the expiry date (30 November 2025) for an exercise price of NZD$1.20.

Application has been made to quote the warrants on the NZX Main Board and this is expected to occur on
Thursday, 23 March 2023, under the ticker code “NZLWA”.

In addition, $25.2M further debt will be raised via Rabobank, with total facility limits expected to increase to
approximately $131.0m

Rabo coming up with $25m at the prevailing going Interest Rate


Muddy Boots certainly has a reasonable pile of DEBT on board adding $25m on top out of this

Shareholders get hit for $38.5 m and maybe institutions get a look in too ?

So they signed up in Oct 2022 on the new Forest Blocks with no dough in kitty to be thrown towards it
and interest rates have increased since (doubled or more) and the SP has sagged from $1.65 to a
mere muddy Buck in the same time ?


ALF's share of the Performance Fee $4.3 m or so for last financial year, on NZL Share price sliding is now
worth just 61% of what it was 5-6 months earlier when NZL Shares were issued for
the Performance Fee - so basically 39% circa of that has gone down the toilet, leaving ALF with a large
impairment loss on whatever their share of the Muddy Boots Management Co was at the time


How's the dividend going forward looking out of all this Card Stacking and increased pile of
Hock to fund the growing estate at interest rates multiplying out of sight ?


What was the Chair - Rob Campbell doing while all this was going on ?



Any sort of fish elsewhere would tend look better than the potential risks here IMO and probably warrant
a Dividend yield in the double digits and no less than exponental property revaluations on top

Perhaps ALF & NZL should collectively look at investing in a Money Printing plant next ?

Better not try the Performance fee thing - who knows both ALF & NZL could slide to under Half
a Muddy Buck going forwards with more ImPearments lurking, if things further implode /deteriorate
and the paper for printing gets drenched in a heavy Taranaki rain storm

[Ferg]

Wonder if the Chair - Rob Campbell is staying on the board or likely to depart off into the
yonder very soon?

After his self-immolation with NZ Health, I wonder about his priorities. Some might ask is he fit to be an independent director? Do we know what other companies he Chairs or where is a director?

Edit: in 2021 he was chair of SKC, SUM, THL, NZL + others and a director of PCT.

[Sideshow Bob]

After his self-immolation with NZ Health, I wonder about his priorities. Some might ask is he fit to be an independent director? Do we know what other companies he Chairs or where is a director?

Edit: in 2021 he was chair of SKC, SUM, THL, NZL + others and a director of PCT.

Can you a director search on the companies register, but is alot of Robert Campbells......

[percy]

Rob Campbell has an enviable business record.
Shown skilled leadership at each company he has been chairman.
One of the few people who would have sorted out NZ Health/Hospitals.No politican has ever, or ever will.
Only wish he had kept his political gob shut.