sharetrader
Page 3 of 29 FirstFirst 123456713 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 286
  1. #21
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Pro forma underlying EBITDA $21.3m $23.0m $23.7m
    Pre NZ IFRS 16 pro forma underlying EBITDA $8.2m $10.2m $11.0m
    Implied EV (including lease liabilities) / pro forma
    underlying EBITDA 16.5x 15.2x 14.7x
    Implied EV / Pre NZ IFRS 16 pro forma underlying EBITDA 20.3x 16.3x 15.1x
    AFFO per Share – cents 1.78 1.67 1.99
    Dividend per Share – cents at 50% of AFFO for FY2021 0.83 1.00
    *Implied dividend yield – cash dividend declared 1.04% 1.25%
    *Implied dividend yield – gross dividend declared 1.44% 1.73%

    First question is what is AFFO - I really don't have the time today to get into this but the metrics do not appear compelling at first glance.

    What I have learned over many years of investing in this sector is there is very little money in providing care services...the money is in the property development and especially the property churn.
    Beagle ..AFFO

    From other document -

    AFFO, which is a cash proxy used by Radius Care to determine the level of dividend it can support.

    And is defined as -

    available funds from operations, which is calculated from Pre-NZ IFRS 16 Pro forma Underlying NPAT by removing pre-NZ IFRS 16 depreciation and amortisation and instead including maintenance capital expenditure
    Last edited by winner69; 10-12-2020 at 11:12 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #22
    Legend
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Everywhere
    Posts
    6,924

    Default

    Mr/Ms 3 dollar 10 Seller disappear

    Mr/Ms 1 dollar 31 penny eager buyer arrive

    Number traded so far = Zero

  3. #23
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2020
    Location
    Chrsitchurch
    Posts
    861

    Default

    I don't even get why the put it on the sharemarket if there is no trading. How can one buy if if no one is selling?? I shall watch from my chair..

  4. #24
    Legend
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Everywhere
    Posts
    6,924

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Greekwatchdog View Post
    I don't even get why the put it on the sharemarket if there is no trading. How can one buy if if no one is selling?? I shall watch from my chair..

    Agreed - why float / list it if the available shares put on the market at time of listing are next to nothing ..

  5. #25
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Beagle ..AFFO

    From other document -

    AFFO, which is a cash proxy used by Radius Care to determine the level of dividend it can support.

    And is defined as -

    available funds from operations, which is calculated from Pre-NZ IFRS 16 Pro forma Underlying NPAT by removing pre-NZ IFRS 16 depreciation and amortisation and instead including maintenance capital expenditure
    Thanks mate so if I am not mistaken nowhere in those metrics is the most commonly used, (for this sector) underlying eps and they are making up a new term to describe their distributable profit.

    My opinion - There is very little money in providing late stage care.
    Last edited by Beagle; 10-12-2020 at 12:26 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #26
    Veteran novice
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    7,289

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by nztx View Post
    Agreed - why float / list it if the available shares put on the market at time of listing are next to nothing ..
    Ah, but there will be shares available, once the demand has been established!

  7. #27
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...739/337080.pdf

    On a really, really quick look it appears:-
    Net assets are 22.9m = 13 cps. At 80 cents they are saying the shares are worth 6.15 times NTA
    EPS = approx 2.38 cps At 80 cents they are saying a fair forward PE = 33.6 (Higher than RYM)
    I am basing eps on 2 x half year net profit to 30 September 2020.
    The directors seem to have taken great lengths not to disclose eps and especially underlying eps...but to be fair I haven't been prepared to invest much time in this.

    Dividend yield of about 1.6%

    I think somewhere around 20-25 cents based on earnings or 13 cents based on NTA is fair value. To be quite blunt about it I think the directors seem to be in fantasy land.
    I am sure there's many other aspects to this but they are so far out of whack with where I see fair value I am not going to waste any more time on this.

    People should note that interest bearing debt of $24.8m is higher than net assets of $22.9m. Highly leveraged, more than six times NTA and on a higher PE than RYM...thanks for the opportunity but I wouldn't touch this with a 40 foot barge pole.
    Last edited by Beagle; 10-12-2020 at 05:21 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #28
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    136

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Onion View Post
    Not much chance of gauging price if no one is selling!
    Sellers are likely to come from this block, see page 11 of the Listing Profile:

    6 The other shareholders in Radius Care comprise (a) shareholders that received Shares as a result of a series of in-specie distributions of Shares undertaken by funds managed by Knox Investment Partners prior to listing, (b) Radius Care staff members and (c) Harmos Horton Lusk Limited, which was issued 250,000 Shares in consideration for the provision of $200,000 worth of legal services to Radius Care in connection with the listing.

    Looking at the Companies Office records these shares haven't as yet been transferred to those parties, so not yet available to be put on the market.
    Last edited by Wiremu; 10-12-2020 at 02:01 PM.

  9. #29
    Legend
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Everywhere
    Posts
    6,924

    Default

    One hundred & forty nine pennies on offer at close & still no Seller showing any real interest ..


    must be a number of happy campers at RAD not wanting to part with a slice of the action ..
    Last edited by nztx; 10-12-2020 at 05:44 PM. Reason: add more

  10. #30
    Membaa
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Paradise
    Posts
    5,292

    Default

    Have I missed something, RAD is not showing up on ASB Securities? Apologies if a dumb question.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •