RAD - Radius Healthcare

[Scrunch]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...739/337080.pdf

On a really, really quick look it appears:-
Net assets are 22.9m = 13 cps. At 80 cents they are saying the shares are worth 6.15 times NTA
EPS = approx 2.38 cps At 80 cents they are saying a fair forward PE = 33.6 (Higher than RYM) I am basing eps on 2 x half year net profit to 30 September 2020.
The directors seem to have taken great lengths not to disclose eps and especially underlying eps...but to be fair I haven't been prepared to invest much time in this.

Dividend yield of about 1.6%

I think somewhere around 20-25 cents based on earnings or 13 cents based on NTA is fair value. To be quite blunt about it I think the directors seem to be in fantasy land.
I am sure there's many other aspects to this but they are so far out of whack with where I see fair value I am not going to waste any more time on this.

People should note that interest bearing debt of $24.8m is higher than net assets of $22.9m. Highly leveraged, more than six times NTA and on a higher PE than RYM...thanks for the opportunity but I wouldn't touch this with a 40 foot barge pole.

As a public service announcement, I'd agree with Beagle's view and good luck to anyone holding. Its going to take a lot of profitability growth to make this worth the current share price of $1.09 (mkt cap $192m).

From the NZX listing document
2018 net profit $3.8m
2019 net profit $4.2m
2020 net profit (loss) ($2.8)
2020 six months to Sep 2020 net profit $2.1m

There were 176,495,000 shares on issue so a circa $4m net surplus is only 2.3c/share.

AFFCO in 2021 is forecast at $2.9 - $3.5m and dividends are 50-70% of this for a dividend payout of about $1.8m (1c/share).

They don't appear to have provided any 2022 forecasts (a warning in itself).

While high EBITDA figures superficially look appealing, this company looks hard to value at even $100m.
Disc don't hold and won't hold at this sort of price.

[winner69]

Maybe RAD will be goer one day ..maybe

Going to build things

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370227

[Grimy]

Share placement offer today. Shares to be priced at no more than 60 cents.
Closes today.

[herbert240]

I am not brave enough for this one.

[Jantar]

I am not brave enough for this one.

Neither am I. I looked at it briefly, but can't really see any upside to their earnings.

[winner69]

Be interesting if book build only gets 50 cents …….last share price 90 cents

[Joshuatree]

At 50c thats re 33% discount to the post raise diluted s/p, 75.5c. No mention of big management holders applying that i could see

OFFER: RAD: OFFER: RAD: Radius announces up to $50m equity raising to fund growth.

[Beagle]

Why would anyone pay 4.6 times NTA when you can buy anything else in this sector with a proven track record on FAR more compelling fundamental's ? (e.g. OCA and ARV at around 1.25 - 1.4 times NTA)

The companies laser focus on reporting EBITDA numbers could easily be misconstrued by naïve investors as being real earnings.

[ralph]

Be interesting if book build only gets 50 cents …….last share price 90 cents

Seems a good deal then you could sell on at a profit and be a winner

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I do love a good stag... but no thanks.