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  1. #1
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Default AGL - orig. The Australian Gas Light Co. Now one of Aussies biggest energy providers

    So I couldnt find a thread on AGL so I've started one and I'll paste the relevant posts from the Power Shares thread



    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    I know its on the ASX but AGL is on my list of power companies. And it announces half year on 11/2

    It recently lowered its forecast guidance down to $500 m underlying for this FY. (ending June)
    But this is still something around $.77 per share and it has div policy of 75% of underlying and it has mooted paying special dividend up to %100 of underlying profit for the next couple of years since it is cash rich.

    so .77 / 11.55 = nearly 7% yield
    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    Nice yield, horrible downtrend.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  2. #2
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norwest View Post
    At first glance AGL looks "OK", here is a recent review of their power generation assets I did:
    Attachment 12275

    Attachment 12276

    Their renewable assets initially look substantial, even if it is only a comparatively small proportion of their portfolio, the problem is that when you look closer into the ownership structure of their renewable assets, you will find that QIC Global Infrastructure Fund actually own 80% of most of their renewable assets and AGL only own 20%.

    This makes my initial pie graph above incorrect as AGL's power generation assets "owned" by them are actually more like the below graph:

    Attachment 12277

    AGL is basically a coal/gas power generator with diminishing returns, I believe AGL is a value trap if you are going long, especially with their upcoming large generation asset closures. However, there is potential for a short term trade on a confirmed reversal of trend which I am waiting for.
    Thanks Norwest I appreciate your comments.
    Last edited by peat; 04-02-2021 at 02:55 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #3
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Yesterday they wrote of a few billion.
    http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old...091850000&ppv=

    An awesome start to my involvment with this company.

    AGL Energy Limited (AGL) has today announced it intends to recognise charges of $2,686 million (post-tax)in its financial statements for the period ended 31 December 2020. These charges reflect $1,920 million in provisions for onerous contracts related primarily to legacy wind farm offtake agreements, increases toenvironmental restoration provisions of $1,112 million, and further impairments of $532 million across AGL’s Generation Fleet and Natural Gas assets, net of a positive tax effect of $878 million.


    However note that this has not changed the forecast guidance for the current year ending June. Presumably dividend estimations have not changed either.
    So yield (or value trap as Norwest points out ) remains a plus.


    I also note today that Moodys Investors Service has today affirmed AGL Energy Ltd's Baa2 long-term issuer, senior unsecured and senior unsecured bank credit facility debt ratings. And outlook remains stable. There are a some positive comments in their report which one may latch onto.
    https://www.moodys.com/research/Mood...PR_438734?cid=
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    Yesterday they wrote off a few billion.
    http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old...091850000&ppv=

    An awesome start to my involvment with this company.

    AGL Energy Limited (AGL) has today announced it intends to recognise charges of $2,686 million (post-tax)in its financial statements for the period ended 31 December 2020. These charges reflect $1,920 million in provisions for onerous contracts related primarily to legacy wind farm offtake agreements, increases toenvironmental restoration provisions of $1,112 million, and further impairments of $532 million across AGL’s Generation Fleet and Natural Gas assets, net of a positive tax effect of $878 million.
    This is quite extraordinary Peat. How did all their purchasing from a clean green wind energy source go so wrong? And who was on the other side of the contract, the outfit from which they bought their green energy? Whoever it was that stitched up AGL, those might be the guys to invest in!

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  5. #5
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    Couldn't find them with quick search but
    "The ASX has a smattering of renewable energy stocks worth a look. According to the IEA report, wind and solar stocks lead the renewable energy sector right now. A few ASX entries are already generating revenue and profit while others are in earlier stages of development.

    In the first table we look at two diversified utilities with renewable energy assets – Origin Energy (ORE) and AGL Energy (AGL) – along with the few pure play renewable energy offerings currently generating both revenue and profit."
    https://thebull.com.au/renewable-ene...-covid-19-era/

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    Then Queensland Government, via QIC Global Infrastructure Fund's subsidary PowAR bought the 80% controlling state off AGL's in 2016 that have the other side of the contracts. AGL are actually losing money from this offtake agreement with each unit they take off PowAR, and they have to take it. Unbelievable.

    Snoopy thats the first thing I looked at when investigating AGL, is to see if I could buy into QIC.

    AGL Dipped into $10's today, next stop $9...

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norwest View Post
    Then Queensland Government, via QIC Global Infrastructure Fund's subsidary PowAR bought the 80% controlling state off AGL's in 2016 that have the other side of the contracts. AGL are actually losing money from this offtake agreement with each unit they take off PowAR, and they have to take it. Unbelievable.

    Snoopy thats the first thing I looked at when investigating AGL, is to see if I could buy into QIC.
    I can't stand the suspense! Were you able to buy into QIC?

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    I can't stand the suspense! Were you able to buy into QIC?

    SNOOPY
    Unfortunately no, it's not publicly traded and I could not find a fund from the institutional investment firm's are that are backing them - if you could find one I would be very interested.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norwest View Post
    AGL Dipped into $10's today, next stop $9...
    AGL falling heavier and faster than even I thought, opened today at $9.650. Ouch.

  10. #10
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    It went ex-div today, so it was flat-ish adjusting for the dividend.

    But where is will go next, I have no idea.
    om mani peme hum

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