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  1. #31
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    AGL will be under a lot of pressure to move to renewables. Large investments might soak up cashflow for dividends.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/...snt-phased-out

  2. #32
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by clearasmud View Post
    Yep, the market is irrational sometimes. What's your sp target for OBM?
    All depends on next month if OBM can continue to lift production week on week last ann they stated 1290oz target for the last week of AUG .. they were having issues averaging just over 1000oz pw prev months ramping up ...

    we need to see continued increases which in turn will lower AISC of production giving a profit per oz ...
    Goal 1500-1600oz pw and the SP should head back over 20c ..

    we see Qty on Qty positive cashflows which if they can keep AISC even higher than DFS @ 1700oz ~spot Gold 2450oz -- even at lower 1500oz pw target production
    ==== $1,150,000 Gross profit per week ... even with OBM higher costs of muti-pits ...
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  3. #33
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    Wallowing in the 5's today on good volume after briefly going there 2 days ago...

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norwest View Post
    Wallowing in the 5's today on good volume after briefly going there 2 days ago...
    Seems the SP is going one way for this stock....how low can it go

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by STr View Post
    Seems the SP is going one way for this stock....how low can it go
    Ultimately will depend on what sort of cashflow it can generate now and in the future and what is left after the transition from coal to renewables I suppose.

    For now it is in a pariah industry a lot of large funds won't be able to invest in it, too much unknown I suppose and technical analysts won't invest in a clear down trend even if the fundamentals are OK.

    So, no idea.

  6. #36
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    24% capital loss for a 4.6% dividend. Was it worth it?

    Time will tell. Except for the whole non-renewable issue and the fact this company might be completely different in a decade or two, power generators are generally a license to print money.

    Sad but not panicking. As Phadraeus pointed out many times a company in a downtrend usually carries on down and it doesn't matter if you know(or think you know) the reason for it. I imagine the pain could be a lot more significant before the hurt stops.

  7. #37
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    Not having studied this company I just assumed the mass investment in house r ooftop solar is killing electricity prices and profits.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by clearasmud View Post
    Not having studied this company I just assumed the mass investment in house r ooftop solar is killing electricity prices and profits.
    I don't claim to fully understand how negative spot pricing nor how Australia's NEM operates in detail, however the spot price regularly goes negative.

    I agree with what you are saying around all that rooftop solar (without distributed battery storage) flooding the grid with excess power, however it also goes negative in the middle of the night.

    AEMO | NEM data dashboard

  9. #39
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    suffice to say this close to the worst investment ever (only PRC did worse)

    stupidly I have held through. at least I never bought more.

    not worth getting out now. can hope there is some intrinsic value somewhere.

    hopefully wholesale electricity prices rebound
    I did note MCQ took a substantial holding recently. so perhaps they see deep value at this point.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  10. #40
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    I seem to remember aquiring these shares when they took over a NZ gas company a good few years back and I have added over the years. The dividends have been really good over that time and the share price went up to $28 at it's peak. I wanted to sell then but my advisor said no. I don't have an advisor any more.
    Anyway, I have bought a few more at these low prices and am happy to hold and see how the demerger into two identities eventuate.
    Soolaimon

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