SCT Chart

[Phaedrus]

Some months ago in an earlier SCT thread I said "SCT is a relatively lightly traded stock. This generally means a wide bid/ask spread and greater volatility. You have to give such stocks more than the usual amount of room to breathe". $100,000 daily turnover is not large and is not especially high even for this stock. Take a look at the sharp dip in mid 2003. Here the percentage price drop was double that of today, along with more than triple the volume. Price action still failed to break below the trendline and the uptrend continued.
Todays action, then, was NOT a Price/Volume Climax such as often mark major turning points. (You can easily see the one in October 2001)

I am monitoring this stock using 4 parameters. Exit signals would be generated by :-
(1) A break of the current confirmed trendline
(2) A break below a 300 day Exponential Moving Average
(3) A break below a 20% Trailing Stop
(4) A clear break below the recent Resistance level.



As you can see, NONE of these conditions have been met (yet!) so I have NOT sold. I have quite a substantial position in this stock that will take time to unwind, so my plan is to sell progressively, as each Sell signal is triggered.

K1w1, I am puzzled as to why you equate "taking your medicine like men" with acting on predetermined Sell signals when they are eventually triggered. I have been holding SCT for 3 years now - that is a long time by my standards. A Sell at any of the 4 posted exit criteria will lock in capital gains from what has proved to be a very profitable trade. I am happy to hold, I am happy to sell. At this stage I cannot lose - either way.

You seem to be in some doubt as to whether I will have the discipline to act on these signals when they are eventually triggered. Fear not my flightless feathered friend - I learnt that lesson many years ago. The hard way.

[k1w1]

Well Phaedrus, (damn that was a great book wasn't it)there was a touch of hyperbole in it. But there is a human factor to overcome when you have to exit on a falling share. Always the hope that if you just hold for a few cents lower that the tide will come in. Perhaps it will tomorrow for the volume is very light.

That's why I need all the techies to get triggered. Buyers will not be all that thick on the ground same as sellers. This baby could go down like the Titanic. If so us bottom dwelling scum suckin' low life fundies will be all over this baby.

Stephen I think that the discounted present cashflow model you made was credible, how do you put a figure on future growth potential. Too many variables if you ask me.

I am going to watch this share.I hope that the techies hold true to their principles like Phaedrus assuredly will if we can get this baby down to 3.35. Then anything could happen.

If I was a trader or techie there may be an argument for getting out now and safeguarding profits. If it goes lower you can always get back in. If it starts to trend back up you can buy in as well. But I'm not so I won't be a seller. There is no reason to ,according to my investment style. But it is not a compelling buy at the current price.

[duncan macgregor]

KIWI, The idea in my opinion is wait to this share bottoms, and keep close watch on the exchange rate. That is the basic reason for the less than expected profit. This will be a good company to get back into later. cheers macdunk

[stephen]

"How do you put a figure on future growth potential?"

With great scepticism, which is why I would demand a large margin of safety before I bought.

[k1w1]

Agreed, MacDunk

*gasp. goes off to take his temperature as may have been stricken by a strange illness*

[k1w1]

Any of you techies walked the plank ? er.. sorry

Any of you techies unwound your positions as a result of stop losses being triggered by a break below the resistance level signalling an impending um, um spiralling pattern ending in a splat ? er..well I started that off with good intentions I just don't know enuf techie speak....

o-k one more try.

"To paraphrase the Erebus Report.

Has this share emitted a " whoop , whoop, pull up now " noise yet ?"

[Steve]

I received my SCT shares when split out of DON @ 67.6c and adjusted for the 2 bonus issues since then, my entry price reduces to 53.3c

Anyone else in the same boat?!

[k1w1]

Phaedrus,

I notice that someone has just sold 216 shares @ 3.35 and finally 8 shares @3.35.

Was that you liquidating your positions ?

[duncan macgregor]

KIWI, The 8 shares at$3-35 were not mine honest. It would be some jewish bastard trying to give us scotties a bad name. cheers Macdunk

[Nevl]

SCT is one that I looked at a few years ago when I had no cash and wanted to buy then never did and then watched as all you other investors did well. Congrats. I am with K1w1 on this one and will buy on any major oversell. I like the way K1w1 values his stocks but after a few years of observation have a very profound respect for Phadreus' postings. One issue is that I belive that the NZ$ may stick above .60 US for a long time. It will be interesting to see how this effects a number of stocks. Not just SCT but also PVO, WDT, SOE and CTL and a number of other small exporters.