SCT Chart

[Risk]

I traded SCT a couple of times in 2002-2003 for some quick profits, but looking at the chart now, long term holders did better....thats assuming you can sell at current prices

not that I'm complining, because holding SCT long term means you occasionally have given back a lot of your paper profits...which is not usually my style.

maybe I lack patience, but when the price reached 3.80, I would have set my trailing stop to 3.70 (2%+)

[duncan macgregor]

KIWI For petes sake get these bums of my back,I had nothing to do with them eight shares. PHeadrus it must have been you and a wrotten TA swindle. NEVI, BELGARIAN,RISK, AND steve.macdunk will be watching take care. MACDUNK

[k1w1]

I've got your back on those 8 shares MacDunk. I regard Phaedrus silence on the point as incriminating at this stage.

[stephen]

This Jewish bastard assures you that he has more money than that.

MacDunk is drunnk, but won't take a taxi! Think of the oney he'll save when he walks home behind it!

[duncan macgregor]

STEPHEN, You were the one that sold the ten shares after that then?. MACDUNK.

[Phaedrus]

K1w1,

[u]THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SELL SIGNALS YET.</u>

Why do I have to keep telling you this?

[k1w1]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

K1w1,
. It is also common for resistance, once broken, to become support. That is what ought to happen here - SCT should find support at $3.40. A clear break below that would give a Sell signal.
SCT is a good stock with good fundamentals. We techies are counting on the fundies to provide a good solid floor of buying support at $3.40. You should see todays drop as a market over-reaction and as such, presenting a buying opportunity. If you guys fail to front up here, I will (sadly and with regret) begin unwinding my position.

Phaedrus, when you said here, I took it you were referring to 3.40.For two straight days now the SP has been below 3.40. It has been as low as 3.35 on both days .We may have to differ as to whether or not there has been a clear break of the 3.40 resistance level.

Whilst I accept that volumes are not huge there is a clear argument that can be made that this stock is retracing to its earlier levels in the mid 3.30's.

The price rise can perhaps be explained by buyers hoping that there would again be a bonus issue in the annual result pushing the price up on a lightly traded stock. Those signals caused techies to regard this as a break out and also purchasing as per their methodology.

When the bonus issue did not eventuate buyers exited as on its fundamentals the 3.80 price was hard to justify.The share price has dropped over 10%, a significant amount.

[Phaedrus]

K1w1,
You are still not looking at the chart. The last 3 peaks were :-
21/4/04 $3.38
30/7/04 $3.38
3/8/04 $3.38
the days in question are :-
14/10/04 $3.37
15/10/04 $3.38
It is hard to credit that you are claiming that this price action constitutes, as per point (4) in my post of 14/10/04, "A clear break below the recent Resistance level" ("Clear" = conspicuous, definite, distinct, obvious, pronounced) Look again at the chart I posted for you on 14/10/04 - I would be absolutely astonished if anyone on ShareTrader agreed with you on this point!

You state that (The price) "...has been as low as 3.35 on both days". Wrong - it went to 3.35 on one day only, but so what? The system as posted is based solely on End of Day data - intraday lows (and highs) are totally irrelevant here.

"The share price has dropped over 10%, a significant amount." Nonsense - that is nothing for SCT. As I have said many times "SCT is a relatively lightly traded stock. This generally means a wide bid/ask spread and greater volatility. You have to give such stocks more than the usual amount of room to breathe". Anyone foolish enough to use a 10% Trailing Stop with this stock would have been flicked out 17 times over the course of this uptrend. That's how insignificant a 10% fall is! That's why we are using a 20% Trailing Stop. A 10% drop is well within the normal volatility of this stock. Again, look at the chart.

"There is a clear argument that can be made that this stock is retracing to its earlier levels in the mid 3.30's." Really? Let's hear it!

K1w1, Why is the possible triggering of a Sell signal here a matter of such keen interest to you? You seem very critical, but I am unable to discern what it is that lies behind the sarcastic tone of your posts.

What, precisely, is the point you are trying to make?

[k1w1]

[quote]Originally posted by Phaedrus
"There is a clear argument that can be made that this stock is retracing to its earlier levels in the mid 3.30's." Really? Let's hear it!

K1w1, Why is the possible triggering of a Sell signal here a matter of such keen interest to you? You seem very critical, but I am unable to discern what it is that lies behind the sarcastic tone of your posts.

What, precisely, is the point you are trying to make?
[quote]

The Sp definitely hit 3.35 yesterday. As I recall it hit 3.35 the day before as well but I dont have access to figures to check that.Why are intra day figures irrelevant? Is that one of the Techie Ten Commandments?

The figure of 3.40 as the support price/resistance came from you, as per your earlier quoted posts, not me. Who did not read the charts properly ? Or did you mean 3.38 all along. It is a fair interpretation of what you wrote to regard a SP of 3.35 as a distinct, obvious orpronounced break of a 3.40 support price regardless of your indignation at my temerity in doing so.

Here is my take. Previously the market rated this stock around the mid 3.30's based on previous performance and growth potential. This SP runs up prior to the annual announcement on hopes of increased profits and/or bonus shares. They were not met this year so the SP is retracing to those earlier levels. I may be wrong - only the Pope has to be infallible.

I don't retract from describing a 10% drop in SP as significant regardless of where you techies set your stop losses.

Why the sarcasm ? Always been a weakness of mine . No offence meant and apologies to anyone offended.

What's the point ? That there are different investing styles which produce different action points or not as the case may be. Freedom of expression should allow me to give you techies a good rev up, just as I expect us fundies to come under fire on a regular basis.

[Phaedrus]

K1w1,
Regardless of what you recall, the SCT Low for 14/10/04 was $3.37. I have checked from 4 different sources and all agree.

Intraday figures are vital for short-term TA, stochastics, candlesticks, price bars and many other indicators. The system I have been posting for SCT is obviously a long-term one - intraday prices do not figure here at all, therefore they are totally irrelevant in this case.

"I don't retract from describing a 10% drop in SP as significant regardless of where you techies set your stop losses." K1w1, this has nothing whatsoever to do with TA, it is to do with the natural volatility of the stock in question. For reasons I have stated many times, SCT is quite a volatile stock - its price often drops by 10% or more. Thus, viewed within the context of SCT, a drop of 10% is insignificant, it means nothing. Anyone uncomfortable with sustaining short-term losses of that size (or larger) would have quit SCT years ago, missing out on substantial capital gains. Fundamental analysts are supposed to concentrate on "value", and usually claim to be indifferent to fluctuations in the share price.

K1w1, I believe that you have gone out of your way here to deliberately misinterpret the system I posted. I simply cannot put it any clearer than I already have :-
"I am monitoring this stock using 4 parameters. Exit signals would be generated by :-
(1) A break of the current confirmed trendline
(2) A break below a 300 day Exponential Moving Average
(3) A break below a 20% Trailing Stop
(4) A clear break below the recent Resistance level."

SCT has, in fact, never shown Resistance at $3.40. It has always been at lower figures than that as is obvious from even a cursory inspection of the chart. You can easily see that the Resistance line is a little below $3.40. Any reasonable, thinking person would have recognised the figure of $3.40 in the text of that old post as a typo. You have based your entire case on this, and I think less of you for it. Look at the chart - any fool can see that recent price action has so far failed to clearly break below the Resistance line - whatever the level it is at. That is the crucial point here.

TA has worked well on this stock - getting you in early and keeping you in for 3 years (so far) regardless of short-term price fluctuations, while the long-term uptrend continues.