SCT Chart

[duncan macgregor]

KIWI, not a bad reply from someone on the defensive. I take it that you dont consider brokerage on a buy but use it as an excuse not to sell. I find that brokerage is something i consider in a buy situation,but not in a sell situation. Every situation is taken on its merits and dealt with accordingly, but to watch a sp half in value regardless of what price you paid shows me that you need to take a good look at your sell strategy. TPW is still on an uptrend and like SCT is very thinly traded so must be given room to move. SCT however is on a confirmed downtrend with down grades in profit. Its much better sticking to winners regardless of brokerage. macdunk

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Im accumulating this stock at this level. What's truely scary is how many trades it takes to fill even a small order. Packets of 100 shares or less being sold!

Staff selling out?????

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Originally posted by belgarion

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Im accumulating this stock at this level. What's truely scary is how many trades it takes to fill even a small order. Packets of 100 shares or less being sold!


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Staff selling out?????

Could be small time holders cashing up a Christmas nest egg. I note that independent director Mark Waller has just bought 20,000 shares though.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

[quote]quote:Originally posted by Tom Hall

if no (almost no) trades are taking place, and the price isn't rising, this implies that the stock is accurately valued, and the market has reached something of a consensus about that.

Tom, days where under 5000 SCT shares are traded in total is not an unusual event. My casual observation of the liquidity of SCT shares is that it is no better, or no worse than it has always been.

SCT accurately valued? Try precisely valued! Accurate implies to me there is a valuation target that you can aim at, and I'm not sure that is true with SCT.

SCT is probably one of the purer export plays available as an investment. By that I mean they don't take currency hedging risks. They only buy foreign exchange contracts when a project is signed and sealed. If the dollar remains at US70c or thereabouts for a year, it may be twelve months before we see another dividend. The dollar is so high at the moment that I doubt SCT have any hedging contracts in place. SCT are not under any financial pressure with their capital structure, so there would be no point in hedging to guarantee a loss!

OTOH SCT have a full order book, so that means if the dollar falls in value the benefits will be immediate. As to which way the dollar is going, in the short term who knows? That is why, apart from arbitrage plays, I don't make short term investments in the stock market.

SNOOPY

disc: hold SCT and can afford to do so until they 'come right', whether that be weeks, months, years or even a decade.

[duncan macgregor]

]Originally posted by Snoopy[/i]
disc: hold SCT and can afford to do so until they 'come right', whether that be weeks, months, years or even a decade.
SNOOPY,
This is where you are completely wrong In your disc statement. If you had sold out when the PHEADRUS TA chart told you to, or heaven forbid suggesting this, my time line, you would be able to buy back almost double with the same money. To hold a share when all the fundamentals TA whatever tell you the chances are higher of a drop than a rise, and still hold is a sure way to bankruptsy. macdunk having a go at yous

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

]
This is where you are completely wrong In your disc statement. If you had sold out when the PHEADRUS TA chart told you to, or heaven forbid suggesting this, my time line, you would be able to buy back almost double with the same money. To hold a share when all the fundamentals TA whatever tell you the chances are higher of a drop than a rise, and still hold is a sure way to bankruptcy. macdunk having a go at yous

First of all Macdunk, SCT production line sales are at record levels. So I don't think that you can say that all the fundamentals point to the share price sinking.

The problems that Phaedrus had selling out are well documented, yet you exhort all other shareholders to 'sell out' believing that they could get the same price that Phaedrus did? Without further affecting the market?

Only 3416 SCT shares traded today. I don't usually mention how many shares in any particular company I have as it is not usually relevant. However, I don't mind disclosing that I have more SCT shares than that. The idea that you can simply 'sell out' at a reasonable price on whatever day you wish is not reality.

The idea that you should always sell out of a share just because you think it will probably go down is not rational either.

If you think there is a 70% chance a share will go down by 20c your expected downside is:

0.7x0.20= 14cps

If you think there is a 30% chance the same share will go up by $1 then your expected upside is:

0.3x1.00= 30cps

Thus even though you expect the share price to go down, it could still be rational to 'buy' the share. This is how I feel about SCT at the moment, and why I bought at $1.91.

SNOOPY

[Phaedrus]

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus
<chart snipped>

Why Phaedrus, your lovely smile. It seems that it has gone -upside down! I thought you had given up on this share, due to the lack of liquidity and the associated difficulties getting in and out!

Either way, I guess I and all those others who are left in are deeply touched by your schadenfreude.

But are we shareholders all so badly off?

Nothing really new going on here. Profits for this year are already locked in. The share price today will be responding to the exchange rate over next year and how that will effect tendering for new projects in subsequent years. If it stays up, we shareholders are losers. If it eases back the share price will creep up. We are probably now outside the profit announcement window where 'insiders' can buy in. That may be why the share price has slipped a few cents.

There are no trades at all today as I write this, so I wouldn't read much into today's price. I, like other long term holders, am prepared to play the waiting game

SNOOPY

discl: hold SCT (slight underweight rating)

[duncan macgregor]

SNOOPY, What puzzles me is why would you hold a share like this in the first place. It is not something your WARREN BUFFET would buy is it?. This is a share that relies on contracts to make one off machinery, they dont have anything to sell other than that. I did ask you the question on another forum about some of their source materials [stainless steel] doubleing in price but you never replied.
This is a very risky company that you cant predict the worth with fundamental analysis. The TA charts tells me its a dog, yet you still defend your position. This company is a contract company that you know nothing about, and wont find out until its to late dont defend your position change it. macdunk

[Phaedrus]

Don't knock the stock Dunc - there was a LOT of money to be made with SCT from 2002 - 2004. It was an absolutely outstanding performer back then.

Snoopy, I follow all NZ stocks, not just the ones I hold. In a small market like ours this is very easy to do so long as you have a well set-up system.
You may be interested to know that I have undergone extensive counselling over the last 2 years and believe that I can now say with total honesty that SCT means nothing to me. I have no emotional attachment to it and any view I express is now totally objective. Of course this is easy when you do not hold the stock in question.
A breakout from a formation that lasted for such a long time is technically noteworthy, in my opinion. I swear that had the breakout been upward, I would have marked it with a Smiley face. Just for you!