SPN - South Port

[thereslifeafter87]

The chart looks like this is a prime candidate to sell short...

Phaedrus, I would love it if you would post a chart on ION on the ASX thread... Thanks in advance.

[Phaedrus]

Tla87,
It's fairly late in the day to be talking about shorting this stock. Obvious earlier entry points would be :-
(1) After the Head and Shoulders pattern formed at the top where the uptrend went straight into a downtrend. They are a reversal pattern, remember! That would have been a logical time to go short, with a high probability of success.
(2) When price action broke below a longterm moving average such as the 400 sma depicted.
(3) After the bearish "Double Top" pattern formed at the end of last year.
The later in the trend such a trade is entered, the higher the risk and the lower the potential return. I personally wouldn't short SPN now, even though it continues to look weak, technically.

I am loathe to post charts on the Australian forum. I'm spending too much time here as it is, without opening up a "second battlefront". It seems I can't just post a chart - I then have to spend an awful lot of time explaining, justifying and defending it. I simply can't be bothered. My apologies to you and Cantab, who also asked very nicely.

[thereslifeafter87]

Cheers Phaedrus,

I'm showing my technical ignorance here, and I don't think I will ever actually consider shorting a stock.

I just saw a (steep) downtrend, and interpreted it that way.

[kittydashwood]

Our american friends like this stock.

[duncan macgregor]

PHEADRUS, Keep posting your charts please, dont waste your time defending the position. Interesting position comes up, post the chart. You have enough people to defend the fort. You gave me a new insight into investing, after i gave you a bit of a hard time, but that really was to understand how with your methods i might improve mine. Thats what it is all about the dumb people will never change a fixed idea.
macdunk.

[Placebo]

So MacDunk, if you were to buy a port company now, what would it be? Take it from me, you can't go past POA. It's a superb company. If you've held this and sold out in the last year, you're a fool. Never mind what the staff say

[duncan macgregor]

PLACEBO, POA has been good to me bought on 13th sept 2003 at $6-25 sold at $8-10. The share price has downtrended since then and at the same time the market has gone up. I started telling everyone to buy POT which I did at $4-44 and now the price is nearly $6-00.
SPN ,LPC,POA, all have one thing in common POT. POT has made serious inroads into their profits one way or another. I was lucky enough to to realise what they were up to, and got on board early. The only port share worth holding as far as i could see for the last year has been POT. Next 12 months POT, after that who knows every good thing becomes over valued and drops. If POA drops low enough or SPN then they come into contention, but not at this moment in time.
cheers macdunk

[Placebo]

Yes MacDunk, as you've probably discerned I was yanking your chain there. You've championed POT long and loud, and with good reason. Looking at the chart there's a nice wee spike, you could quite happily pocket a profit there.

Fight the good fight!

[glennj]

MacDunk please justify your statement that POT has made serious inroads into LPC & SPN profits.

We've discussed POT before & I suggested you would do even better with some serious research to go with your "momentum" investment style. Talking to the tea lady is just a small part of it. Good on you for your successes. Remember to make use of stop losses if you are relying on momentum & little else though. Also watch those transaction costs.

"Momentum investors buy outperforming stocks and sell them when the price flattens off" Many people try and play the same game pushing the price up to get in & driving it down to get out. Dreman says "there is little documentation from the Schools or from the Street that momentum beats the market"

If you also took a value approach I suggest it would help as you would get in at a much better entry level. IMO POT is a very good company but is now over priced. SPN & LPC are much more moderately priced, have good dividend streams and will be doing much more business in the future than they are now. OK current returns are not doing much now, around 10 - 18% pa including divs depending on when bought, but they will do better.

It's always worth looking at a different perspective.

[duncan macgregor]

GLENJ, My average is only four trades per year, my maximum share holding max five. I really dont give a damn about the value if i have to wait to long. I am in this game to make money, nothing else i dont fall in love with a company, or buy in saying nobody understands them. I do the home work, share what i learn and thats it.If you dont know the influence of POT in the south island you soon will. I make mistakes, but when i do i told you first. Previousely on sharechat and now here, so it is easy to say i got it wrong. Nobody has so far, so like it or not, i pick the winners. Keep an eye on me and give me heaps if i fall over cheers Macdunk
DISCL HQP, POT,PGG,NOG,