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  1. #61
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    i'm wary that they can't beat last years npat without doubling what they do in the second half. i have no idea what a second half number usually looks like though. the market could have read the announcement wrong or predicted a flat next half.

    my back of the envelope is assuming a valuation of $1 from a previous link (no idea how he arrived at it), then knocking 5c off which would give me about 31% under. i'm seeing a lot of stocks like this at the moment so it may be normal.

    with trump stocks the big thing, a health stock may be on the outer and people are moving elsewhere. bear in mind i like to actively look for excuses to not buy, i've gone too early on a couple recently and need cash on the side.

  2. #62
    Member
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    Apr 2011
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    Wellington
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    Can't see Trump being a factor here.. Either the market had a knee jerk reaction and we will see a recovery today or the prevailing thought is that they won't make 2H NPAT target, in which case another tumble may be on the cards today.

    Either way I like the fundamentals of the business. When a business exports 90% of their goods, ccy fluctuations will always come into play. Over time should even out though

  3. #63
    IMO
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    Its an unconventional family run business which is out of synch with shareholders way of thinking; what a confusing announcement.. They don't seem to care much about the s/p but in the longterm growth of the business. PIE have been selling down maybe more to go today. Will watch..

  4. #64
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
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    526

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    The market remains very skittish, reacting brutally to any earnings disappointments, actual or anticipated.
    Revenue seems to be in line with forecasts, but profit to come in below expectations, presumably due to increased overheads - more marketing spend? Their marketing spend has gone up in fits and starts over the years; key thing for me is sales growth remains robust along with transition to higher margin products.
    I'd like more detailed communication but I'm happy for the management to think long term. As Warren Buffet said, the stock market is a device for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.
    Last edited by DarkHorse; 25-11-2016 at 09:34 PM.

  5. #65
    IMO
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    Ive read they were on the wrong side of a currency hedge/ trade when Brexxit happened. Almost bought back in for a third time but got distracted and thinking PIE and many other funds could still be reducing/selling out.S/P recovered a little to 78.5c today.

  6. #66
    IMO
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    Back in today after that hiatus, @75c .Heres hoping the s/p is settling now but have a fedora hat soaking in case i have to chew on it.. But have funds ready for another parcel if i should be so blessed.

  7. #67
    IMO
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    Well I've pimped in for some more today; knowing if i take my fedora (protects from falling knives)off i will be obliged to get cut then eat the hat. DYOR ( i refuse to confirm or deny that i have)

  8. #68
    IMO
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    Up 20% t 66c atm, I'm back to breaking even on this (plus divs). Back in the drawer (kicks shut with foot).

    "GP Margin held up well considering the exchange rate movements

    JH tax rate was 34%
    Working capital management was very good.
    Record Operating Cash flows
    Record investment made in the business, including purchase of a property
    Company is in net cash position
    Record dividend declared"

  9. #69
    Herbacious
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Posts
    437

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    Just been recommended as a pick on MFDI.

  10. #70
    IMO
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    It has habit of disappointing the mkt consistently then rising from the ashes again to become an undervalued bargain. Biggest weakness is its all in the family and run like it unfortunately. Note to self trade this one dont invest.

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