Where do you forecast the NZX50 to be at by Christmas 2022 ?

[Beagle]

There's an old saying on Wall Street, "As goes January, so goes the rest of the year" and I've read its about 86% accurate for the US markets. Sadly, January here and in many overseas markets certainly hasn't started well so far that's for sure !

After the worst year in a decade in 2021 surely we can't be on for another negative year in 2022 or could we ?

With the obvious challenges of central bank stimulus around the world be wound back from record stimulatory level's, rising bond yields undermining equity valuations and persistent inflation its clear there are some significant headwinds affecting the market and that's before we even consider the effects of Omricon and any other variants that might pose challenges to the economy.

We closed today at just on 12,600 and if my memory serves me correctly that's down a few hundred points already.

So, where to from here and where to by Christmas ?

This is a public poll and if I set it up correctly your user name will be recorded against your vote.

I'm away for a few days but look forward to reading people's thoughts and votes and will post more of my own thoughts and vote in due course.

Happy debating and voting

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The other Wall Street saying is "Don't fight the Fed". Increasing rates will put pressure on asset prices (which are currently at historical extremes and can only be justified on the assumption of zero rates for the next 100+ years).

It's highly possible we will be in recession within 1-2 years due to increasing rates. My concern now is that has inflation been allowed to embed itself deep enough that we cannot use the strategy of lowering rates to ease the impacts of recession. Interesting times.

ANZ out today forecasting OCR of 3% in April 2023. Got to take it with a grain of salt as we are in seriously unchartered waters, however if it gets to that asset prices across the board will be down minimum 20% in my opinion.

I have made big portfolio changes in the last 4 months to anticipate this (cut many long positions apart from a core I have full confidence in, and added select short positions).

[clearasmud]

Just voted over 15,000 based on the trend over the last 3 years.
2021 was a consolidation year.

[Dassets]

Same re positions. If anyone is interested I wrote an article that I threw up on Linkedin last November. I suggest that we may be in for a multi decade high inflationary period. Why? Because we are not in a supply chain squeeze. I think I.heard California ports increased container volumes last year by 16 or 19%. I suggest we may be looking at a form of industrial revolution, Net Zero by 2050. I use a paper written in the 1940s and published in the Oxford Journal of Economics written by a recognized economist. What he wrote supported what I thought. He covered the 1700s and truly the parallels are very similar. Anyway if you want to see why I thought that, and pls I haven't just plucked it, I would be interested in your feedback.


https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/tale-...ohn-southworth

[Aaron]

Same re positions. If anyone is interested I wrote an article that I threw up on Linkedin last November. I suggest that we may be in for a multi decade high inflationary period. Why? Because we are not in a supply chain squeeze. I think I.heard California ports increased container volumes last year by 16 or 19%. I suggest we may be looking at a form of industrial revolution, Net Zero by 2050. I use a paper written in the 1940s and published in the Oxford Journal of Economics written by a recognized economist. What he wrote supported what I thought. He covered the 1700s and truly the parallels are very similar. Anyway if you want to see why I thought that, and pls I haven't just plucked it, I would be interested in your feedback.


https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/tale-...ohn-southworth

Just had a skim read before work, if I understand you, the supply chain issue might be due to a change in manufacturing, to get to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. In the industrial revolution the mechanisation of things in general would have meant people have more "things" that were made of iron or spun etc which lead to an inflation of the commodity inputs, possibly because the extraction industries weren't set up for the increased demand.
I would have thought today we are switching one for another, e.g. mining coal to mining copper or oil to lithium so inflation would only be expected in the commodities for the green revolution.

I had read the stimulus finally getting to the people in the US (a consumption lead society) lead to a massive online shopping spree that overwhelmed the supply chain at the same time covid was affecting it.

I also now realise that I possibly should not be posting on this site and leave it to more thoughtful, intelligent people.

Personally I would not have a clue but suspect massive money printing and ridiculously low interest rates and the debasement of currencies is at the heart of the over consumption and inflation. This is flowing on to disrupt the supply chain along with a pandemic and responses to it. But I have no data to back up that belief, other than looking at historical rates of interest and how quickly money and debt has been created since 2008.

The earlier money printing went into asset prices so we never heard about it, now it is hitting the CPI central banks may have to react. A couple of years of recession might see the supply chain catch up.

There is the possibility like many industries shipping has consolidated down to a few companies who are only just starting to work out their pricing power in a globalised world. They may not want the supply chains to unlock.

[winner69]

I thought this IoT was going to solve the worlds problems

[Dassets]

What effectively is happening is that one supply network is being supplanted by another. But the old network needs to continue supply until the new one is capable. For the new network to be established new technologies, material derivatives need to be developed. And for that to occur you need a different infrastructure to allow that to even occur. Exactly what happened in the 1700s with the wholesale move to steam. For instance we were given direction last year that we needed to build one windfarm every 9 to 12 months in NZ until 2050. And that is similar elsewhere in the world. Transport is meant to make a wholesale move away from liquid fuels ie away from supporting network developed over 120 years. And that is meant to happen in 10 years. Virtually no analysis has been done on how to do it just why it should be done. Just like Jean-Luc Picard saying "Make it so" apologies to trekkies if I got that wrong.

[Muse]

Current forum consensus forecast (weighted average) forecast of 13,010.
Assumed midpoints of each range (and max of 15250 and min of 10750 for convention)

[Aaron]

Not usually aware of the index level but voted anyway.

Less than 11,000. Got down to 9,200 in March 2020 but recovered after unprecedented central bank stimulus. Average people getting hurt by inflation may not be so easy next time investors ask for a decent yield when investing.

Doom I tell you DOOOOM.

[iceman]

Not usually aware of the index level but voted anyway.

Less than 11,000. Got down to 9,200 in March 2020 but recovered after unprecedented central bank stimulus. Average people getting hurt by inflation may not be so easy next time investors ask for a decent yield when investing.

Doom I tell you DOOOOM.

Hey Aaron, I love the sense of humour coming through in your posts through the years but also do note a consistent doomsday forecast in almost every year since we both joined ST in 2010. Do you mind me asking, have you bought any shares since then or are you still waiting for the BIG correction