Where do you forecast the NZX50 to be at by Christmas 2022 ?

[Aaron]

Not usually aware of the index level but voted anyway.

Less than 11,000. Got down to 9,200 in March 2020 but recovered after unprecedented central bank stimulus. Average people getting hurt by inflation may not be so easy next time investors ask for a decent yield when investing.

Doom I tell you DOOOOM.

I thought today is a good day to revisit an old thread.

Roughly halfway to christmas but thought I would take a moment to acknowledge the 7 out of 62 soothsayers with their uncanny and prescient forecast of the future.

The NZX 50 currently below 11,000 but still a long way to christmas. The central banks pivot might see the biggest relief rally in history.

I am unsure who the two at over 15,000 are but they are looking a little out of touch with reality today.

[Beagle]

I thought today is a good day to revisit an old thread.

Roughly halfway to christmas but thought I would take a moment to acknowledge the 7 out of 62 soothsayers with their uncanny and prescient forecast of the future.

The NZX 50 currently below 11,000 but still a long way to christmas. The central banks pivot might see the biggest relief rally in history.

Everything seems in alignment for the perfect storm. The war, persistent effects of the pandemic, persistent inflation, huge central Govt debt from Covid stimulus e.t.c.. Who knows where this goes but I don't see the conditions being in any way helpful for a recovery in the second half.

[Aaron]

Shouldn't the poll be cut off as it was at the start of the year. I notice 2 additional geniuses voting at less than 11,000 but what I can't work out is there is only one additional vote.

Do people have the ability to change their vote with these polls.

Never mind I might be looking pretty silly when the central banks switch direction.

[alokdhir]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...?mod=home-page

[Aaron]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...?mod=home-page

I think I will wait until interest rates stop rising. Maybe even wait until central banks are buying ETFs to prop up the stock market a la Japan.

Who knows I was still talking about the next leg down in March 2020 when it had already shot back up, never to return (maybe never, who knows).

[Aaron]

Less than 10,000 by christmas?, only two months to go.

Last couple of days seems the tide has turned, not sure why. Some talk of the JCB propping up the yen, maybe more intervention expected soon around the world. A super rich ex-goldman banker in charge of the UK, we know Hank Paulson's view on socialising the losses.

Probably a very moral and upright guy.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...omicile-status

[JSwan]

Talks of a potential FED rate hike pause

[SailorRob]

You are able to time the market Beagle?

[ynot]

Everything seems in alignment for the perfect storm. The war, persistent effects of the pandemic, persistent inflation, huge central Govt debt from Covid stimulus e.t.c.. Who knows where this goes but I don't see the conditions being in any way helpful for a recovery in the second half.

I think a considerable drop next year in new house construction will be the catalyst for a major economic decline in NZ. We can only hope is is short in duration.

[Aaron]

You are able to time the market Beagle?

Sadly I think Beagle has been permanently banned from sharetrader. Not sure why.

I would not take this thread too seriously.

Have a look at the survey results no one can time the market. Although back when this thread started less than 11,000 was not as popular as it has become now.

Is there any way to check if fund managers are holding more cash than usual. If so then they are probably trying to time the market, or at least not buying at what might be a current peak.