Where do you forecast the NZX50 to be at by Christmas 2022 ?

[Jay]

Not banned Aaron, just choosing not to frequent here anymore
Still alive in the member list

[Aaron]

Couple more days to go, back above 11,000, I am starting to feel a little silly with my negative predictions.

Looking at Bulls predictions for 2023 more of the same gloom next year if he is correct. Was there a 2022 prediction thread other than this survey. It would be fun to revisit and make fun of the optimists as pessimists only get a couple of short years to be right. Whereas optimists go up the elevator.

I just wonder, someone had the theory that part of the inflationary 70s was not just a fuel crisis but boomers reaching peak earning and spending. If they are now reaching retirement would that not mean a deflationary decade. The current inflation rate would appear to disprove that theory, but it also might be proving Milton Friedmans theory that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.

What about if current market losses mean return of capital rather than return on capital might become a priority for those nearing or in retirement. They hold a majority of the wealth so if they jump together that would be bad for asset values.

Pointless speculation I know, as we won't know the answer for another 10 years.