Winner(*n) US retail got a bit of a knock. Biggest -() was Car Sales.
"Retail sales in the US unexpectedly fell 0.3% mom in May of 2022, the first decline so far this year and compared to market forecasts of a 0.2% rise. It follows a downwardy revised 0.7% increase in April, as high inflation, gasoline prices and borrowing costs hurt spending on non-essential goods. Auto sales recorded the biggest decline (-4%) and sales also fell at electronics & appliance stores (-1.3%); miscellaneous store retailers (-1.1%); nonstore retailers (-1%); furniture stores (-0.9%); and health & personal care stores (-0.2%). On the other hand, retail sales rose at gasoline stations (4%), amid a surge in gas prices; food and beverage stores (1.2%); food services and drinking places (0.7%); sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument & book stores (0.4%); and general merchandise stores (0.1%). Excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.5% and excluding gas and autos 0.1%.
Energy & commodity prices actually pulled back noticeably over last week, oil down ~$10 a barrel, natural gas (USA) also down sharply from ~$9.00 to ~$7.00.
Shipping costs continues its slow but steady decline: down another 1% this week.
WHS - best performing retail stock year to date, actually better than what's shown due to the recent dividend.
No doubt NZX50 inclusion and MSCI small companies inclusion has helped but also consumer staples are simply more resilient so I expect them to continue to outperform in this recession. That said, the way the tide is going out presents challenges to all companies so I am a little more cautious than I was on that one.
HLG, gosh what a pop and drop that's been in the last few weeks. Thought for a minute there I'd missed the boat there but the outgoing economic tide is so strong I think this may have a 4 something handle on it soon. Still a long time to go to the next dividend so I'm in no hurry and my sense is this winter is going to long and cold in more ways than one !
What a week on the NZX - down 5% on top of the ~ 15% its already dropped year to date ! Breathtaking stuff !
Last edited by Beagle; 18-06-2022 at 11:06 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
WHS - best performing retail stock year to date, actually better than what's shown due to the recent dividend.
No doubt NZX50 inclusion and MSCI small companies inclusion has helped but also consumer staples are simply more resilient so I expect them to continue to outperform in this recession. That said, the way the tide is going out presents challenges to all companies so I am a little more cautious than I was on that one.
HLG, gosh what a pop and drop that's been in the last few weeks. Thought for a minute there I'd missed the boat there but the outgoing economic tide is so strong I think this may have a 4 something handle on it soon. Still a long time to go to the next dividend so I'm in no hurry and my sense is this winter is going to long and cold in more ways than one !
What a week on the NZX - down 5% on top of the ~ 15% its already dropped year to date ! Breathtaking stuff !
Will stocks retest their most recent lows
Whs 3.19 Hlg 5.03 Tra 3.60 and Kmd 1.02
There was a good bounceback for those that bought in ...but the trend is down
Mike Hosking reckons reality in the world of retail (what is actually happening) is out of step with the data
June Consumer Confidence from Westpac …. Confidence among New Zealand households has plummeted, dropping to its lowest levels since we began surveying consumers back in 1988.
And how’s this
Misery loves company.
Normally each quarter we dive into how confidence differs across various household groups and regions in the economy. However, a particularly notable feature of this quarter’s survey is how uniform the drop in confidence has been. Confidence has fallen sharply across all age groups and income brackets.
Confidence also is at low levels in every corner of the country.
I think Mike Hosking is right …..if you agree don’t bother read this bit of gloom
Morgan Stanley's bearish strategist Michael Wilson, who in his latest bearish weekly note focused on shrinking margins in general, and on retailer discounting in particular, and wrote that while there is a modest pick up in over sales, the far more concerning issue is that "inventory across the sector is up about 30% YOY and sales growth is up about 0% YOY translating to approximately 30% YOY of excess inventory" and while mark down/margin pressure did not hit in 1Q it should hit June/July.
honestly winner(n) that chart looks about as useful as watching TIK TOK TV one morning news and who does that anymore unless you want some dance steps for your next TIK TOK creation...
its just that 5-6 dollar coffees sales will drop? but interest free offers for (n) months will be here for a while.
if those double shot coffee's keep being brewed and top gun keeps shooting up at the box office the crowd will go wild over the sports channels this winter.
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Originally Posted by Beagle
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