Infometrics in an release “ HOUSEHOLD RESILIENCE FLAGGING AS OMICRON HITS” -
“The resilience of household spending continues to be a key factor underpinning New Zealand’s good economic performance throughout COVID-19 and contributes to a robust outlook,” says Infometrics Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan. “But the tailwinds that have supported strong spending outcomes throughout 2020 and 2021 are dying out, and consumers will be less able to drive economic growth to the same extent during the next two years.”
Household budgets are being squeezed by rising prices across the board, with inflation of almost 6%pa running well ahead of wage growth, at 3.8%pa. A 30% surge in petrol prices is particularly noteworthy, while price increases for other essentials, such as food and rent, have accelerated as well. With mortgage rates set to finish this year more than two percentage points higher than they were 18 months ago, and the official cash rate set to reach 2.75% in 2023, mortgage repayments are also rapidly increasing.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Some might be interested in these numbers .... part of an unfinished exercise (paid work) to assess (in due course) the impacts of covid on retail spend in NZ
Shows the last available 2 year change in selected retailer's sales from pre-covid
Bench market is NZ Retail sales of 16.5% - remember over 2 years so about 8% pa is average
Quite interesting
rawz - diamonds in demand as much paper clips
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
This will embolden Putin. Watch out for an invasion of Ukraine later this month and $120 Oil and 91 Octane petrol at over $3 a liter (98 Octane already $3.08 in Auckland yesterday) and diesel at well north of $2 a liter, (affecting all sorts of other commodities due to increased transport and shipping charges).
Consumers will also face much higher interest rates this year and be more inclined to stay home with the Omricon risk.
Interesting times we live in.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
WET Day perfect for shopping people... M10, T7 ect .. Garden supplies to white water adventures..
Help fire up the GDP. Sir Ian is flying out never to be seen again... But dont worry most of you are stuck here in Paradise and might as well enjoy it...
Shop people Shop....
If Mr B is not looking for boats then perhaps that E Bike....
The hound has been very, very busy sniffing really hard and digging around all summer long. Very, very hard to get good quality late model launches at a fair price. Just today I have found a seller of a late model, well equipped one of these but they are a very deep hole in the water in terms of cost and cost to run.
Anyone interested in going halves ?...I am all ears, please PM me. $375K each and about $20K each per annum to run + fuel.
No better boat has ever been built for that sort of money in my opinion, although I am sure some fuel cheating yacht owners like RTM will disagree lol
Last edited by Beagle; 06-02-2022 at 04:50 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Originally Posted by LaserEyeKiwi
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