This Bear market

**JBmurc** · 14-06-2022, 01:12 PM

Originally Posted by LaserEyeKiwi

Every single stock in the S&P500 was red at the same time today at one point - that hasn’t happened in over a decade.

smells like capitulation.

I agree and think we are closer to the end of this sell - off than start ....

**RRR** · 14-06-2022, 01:15 PM

Originally Posted by Rawz

Okay some stuff is looking really really cheap...

FBU
RAK
SUM
TRA
HGH
HMY
MFT

Is anyone buying or waiting for cheaper?

Bought more SUM at 9.3, ARG at 1.18
Unfilled buy orders STU, VGL

**ralph** · 14-06-2022, 02:51 PM

Red bear day for sure a lot of stuff at rock bottom ,J B I hope the end is nigh !!

**Ggcc** · 14-06-2022, 02:52 PM

Originally Posted by Rawz

Okay some stuff is looking really really cheap...

FBU
RAK
SUM
TRA
HGH
HMY
MFT

Is anyone buying or waiting for cheaper?

It will drop more when the fear truly kicks in. I am waiting for HGH to get to roughly $1.30 and TRA to be around $2.50 before I am interested to add more. Oh and maybe some OCA around 45 cents….. If lucky.

**Muse** · 14-06-2022, 03:00 PM

Originally Posted by Ggcc

It will drop more when the fear truly kicks in. I am waiting for HGH to get to roughly $1.30 and TRA to be around $2.50 before I am interested to add more. Oh and maybe some OCA around 45 cents….. If lucky.

eyes on that inflation data

The US Fed meeting today and tomorrow and will be fascinating what they decide...do they pull out the bazooka 75bps rise for the first time since 1994 (the new fear being price in now)? Or do a 50bps rise but talk hard about more and higher interest rates (even threaten a 75bps if needed), or just do a piddly 50bps rise (in which case a short term rally).

we will get to where we get to regardless but will certainly cause some volatility this week on the upside/downside depending on what they do

**Beagle** · 14-06-2022, 03:03 PM

Jim Cramer and a lot of other commentators just want them to get on with it and do a 100 bps rise. Tell the market they're serious about taming inflation and try and restore some shred of dignity from their egregious largesse in recent years. I think if they bite the bullet it might actually help...otherwise I fear the market sees they are just toying with trying to get the inflation Genie back into the bottle and the Bear market continues on unchecked.

**Rawz** · 14-06-2022, 03:07 PM

Originally Posted by Beagle

Jim Cramer and a lot of other commentators just want them to get on with it and do a 100 bps rise. Tell the market they're serious about taming inflation and try and restore some shred of dignity from their egregious largesse in recent years. I think if they bite the bullet it might actually help...otherwise I fear the market sees they are just toying with trying to get the inflation Genie back into the bottle and the Bear market continues on unchecked.

Agree Beagle. And if they dont do it then it means they are happy for inflation to run with negative real rates. Got to get the govt debt under control somehow, taxing the people is the only way (inflation is a tax)

**Muse** · 14-06-2022, 03:18 PM

Originally Posted by Rawz

Agree Beagle. And if they dont do it then it means they are happy for inflation to run with negative real rates. Got to get the govt debt under control somehow, taxing the people is the only way (inflation is a tax)

its interesting where the orthodox ever came from...that 25bps is a normal hike, 50bps a big hike, and anything north of that is super duper extra ordinary. I guess the fed/ocr is but one piece of the puzzle, for floating rates, whereas longer term swap rates are set by expectations gleaned from where the fed/rbnz statements and interest rate guidance for future fed rates. but none the less, if you have an issue now, and given there is quite delay in how spending responds to monetary policy, I don't understand waiting around several quarters to get to where you need to be now.

another interesting aspect is the difference in how different countries fix their mortgages. Americans tend to fix for 30 years (and pretty common to refinance in falling cycles), kiwis tend to fix for 1-2yrs on average, and the majority of lending in oz is variable (which explains a bit why they panicked so much when the RBA raised their rates more than expected - and in the face of only earlier in the year being adamant that rates wouldn't rise until 2024 at the earliest). so in theory consumers should be the most sensitive to rises in AU, then NZ as people refix, and last in the USA. then households will have none mortgage personnel lending which will be shorter term, and then businesses usually only fixing a portion of their debt (say75%), and in difference tranches of maturities (but say circa 3-7 years).