View Poll Results: when will this current Bear market end
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in 3 months +
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six months +
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12 months+
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18 months +
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2 years +
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Even longer
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15-06-2022, 01:34 AM
#151
Guys! guys! Sorry to interrupt! Oil is marching higher just now and the NZD has sunk further.
Will we see double digit inflation by the end of the year? It could be like the 1970s all over again. Exciting!!!
Last edited by Bobdn; 15-06-2022 at 02:18 AM.
Reason: Added an exclamation mark
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15-06-2022, 05:08 AM
#152
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15-06-2022, 07:44 AM
#153
Member
 Originally Posted by davflaws
None of us are wrong!
Most of our opinions are wrong, to varying extents, most of the time. However it isn't high impact because they are not views that are tightly held, we have no intention of acting on them so it's inconsequential what our opinion is.
One of the things I enjoy most about investing is there is an objective truth that is measurable and verifiable. It's an unabashed honesty I've come to appreciate.
Originally Posted by Bobdn
It could be like the 1970s all over again.
Brown, asbestos, smelling of spilled beer and stale cigarette smoke?
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15-06-2022, 08:07 AM
#154
Originally Posted by Bobdn
Guys! guys! Sorry to interrupt! Oil is marching higher just now and the NZD has sunk further.
Will we see double digit inflation by the end of the year? It could be like the 1970s all over again. Exciting!!!
The 70s was a cake walk compared to the 80s when mortgage interest rates in NZ peaked at 22%.
There will be many savers happy to leave their funds in fixed term deposits to reap the high interest income.
Meanwhile, mortgage borrowers are going to be so stuffed.
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15-06-2022, 09:50 AM
#155
Originally Posted by Balance
The 70s was a cake walk compared to the 80s when mortgage interest rates in NZ peaked at 22%.
There will be many savers happy to leave their funds in fixed term deposits to reap the high interest income.
Meanwhile, mortgage borrowers are going to be so stuffed.
The S&P500 averaged a 17.4% annual return in the 1980s - Stocks are the best form of inflation protection normally.
And if wage increases are in the same ballpark as inflation, then mortgage balances get inflated away in real terms as mortgage payments are always a lot smaller than a person salary so any increase in both works in favour of those in debt.
1. For instance Paul & Nancy earn after tax salary of $100,000 & has mortgage interest payments of $30,000, leaving $70,000 remained of after tax income. Their mortgage principle left is $350,000 which is 3.5x their after tax salary
2. After a period of time their salary & mortgage interest payments have increased by 50%
3. Paul & Nancy now earn $150,000 and their mortgage interest payments are now $45,000, leaving $95,000 remaining of after tax income. Their mortgage principle left is now $300,000, which is just 2x their after tax salary.
Yes there spending power (after subtracting best interest costs) in inflation adjusted terms is a bit lower, but their debt burden as a proportion of income is drastically lower (not to mention any stocks or savings they may have would be worth 50% more as well, and the property they have the mortgage on probably too).
Yes a very simple hypothetical above (the gains get smaller if wage increases are less than debt interest increases), but highlighting that sometimes High interest rates can also giveth, and not just taketh.
Last edited by LaserEyeKiwi; 15-06-2022 at 10:07 AM.
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15-06-2022, 03:50 PM
#156
Originally Posted by Bob50
I wonder if I could create my own crypto currency to add to the 18000 others in existence. I could call it Bob’s crypto and limit production to 10 million- better buy it quick it has a limited supply.
Very good point - you get it - and aligns with what I said re scarcity. Bitcoin, the one, the only. Buy altcoins at your own peril!
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15-06-2022, 04:50 PM
#157
MHJ and SKC held up well today. Amazing performance.
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15-06-2022, 05:05 PM
#158
Originally Posted by Waltzing
MHJ and SKC held up well today. Amazing performance.
Everything I own is worth less today, including NZ cash of course. But some people will be ecstatic: those people saying Bitcoin is a worthless scam obviously all put their money where their mouths are and long ago shorted it and are drowning in profit.
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15-06-2022, 06:13 PM
#159
When did you buy your Bitcoin. Are you up overall or did you buy in more recently. What percentage of your portfolio is Bitcoin.
I'm a boring old etf and index investor but I still allow myself 5 per cent to put towards anything I want. One has to have some fun.
Last edited by Bobdn; 15-06-2022 at 06:15 PM.
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15-06-2022, 06:23 PM
#160
Any stock that did not move down today is an amazing performance.
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