This Bear market

[Waltzing]

BOVE outlining that the FED is in a losing position on its securities if interest rates continue to rise.

Considers banks will continue to suffer SP wise this environment for at least the next 6 months.

[xafalcon]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...7RZCKOWHU5QEA/

NZ recession 'almost certain' says independent economist

Economists have predicted 14 of the last 5 recessions

Will NZ suffer a technical recession? Maybe. But the causes are very different to previous recessions. US fuel prices already falling, so this will drag inflation down. Supply lines are freeing up, another drag downwards on inflation. Covid in the rear view mirror, yet another disinflationary effect. So maybe short technical recession then rapid bounce as central banks revise interest rate forecasts down

[DarkHorse]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b38QzAgakEw
Joel Greenblatt: How To Beat The Market In A Bear Market?

[Davexl]

Came across this interesting stats observation by Deutsche Bank:

"Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, meanwhile, found that the five worst H1 performances for the U.S. S&P 500 before this year's near 20% slump had all been followed by big bounces.

"In order of H1 declines, we saw 1) 1932: H1 -45%, H2 +56%, 2) 1962: H1 -22%, H2 +17%, 3) 1970: H1 -19%, H2 +29%, 4) 1940: H1 -17%, H2 +10%, 5) 1939: H1 -15%, H2 +18%," Reid said."

Food for thought - better watch those shorts ??

from https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...erm=06-30-2022

[Azz]

It's my view (a big bounce for US markets); and a massive short squeeze within it.

[alokdhir]

It's my view (a big bounce for US markets); and a massive short squeeze within it.

US markets is the mother of all markets ...we will go up with them ...IMO last quarter is the main fun time

[Azz]

Gather cash and arrange margin.

[alokdhir]

Came across this interesting stats observation by Deutsche Bank:

"Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, meanwhile, found that the five worst H1 performances for the U.S. S&P 500 before this year's near 20% slump had all been followed by big bounces.

"In order of H1 declines, we saw 1) 1932: H1 -45%, H2 +56%, 2) 1962: H1 -22%, H2 +17%, 3) 1970: H1 -19%, H2 +29%, 4) 1940: H1 -17%, H2 +10%, 5) 1939: H1 -15%, H2 +18%," Reid said."

Food for thought - better watch those shorts ??

Very likely ...markets are going crazy with its own thoughts ...got too paranoid with inflation and war etc

[Azz]

Very likely ...markets are going crazy with its own thoughts ...got too paranoid with inflation and war etc

One thing that seems to have been missed by many is that listed company valuations at a certain point need to rise with the inflation!

[Valuegrowth]

Thank you for posting.

https://craigsip.com/insights/overvi...4-005056813337