This Bear market

[Waltzing]

6 months?

2023 predicted recession in US if perhaps a shallow one...

going to take something special to get these market back in BULL mode..

more like they will bounce around for a few years.. GFC took 6 -8 years to wash through this time we have two shocks on after another.

[percy]

The value of my portfolio has reduced,while my dividend income has increased considerably.
Rainy day fund remains in a healthy state.
My ASX small cap portfolio is currently a disgrace,however contains some exciting companies with huge potential .
Have a small amount of cash sitting at the broker's, which I am dithering about recycling,but can not make up my mind, between adding to our AFT,GNE,HGH,or STU .SFF on USX still looks the best buy, with a PE of under 3 and a gross yield of just under 12%,but luckily I am already over weighted with them.
Remain "well positioned."

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/05/morg...to-expect.html

Increasingly serious attempts to rein-in inflation with interest rate increases will slam the brakes on and almost certainly send us into a deep and possibly quite protracted recession in my opinion.

I find it hard to imagine this Bear goes into hibernation before the war ends so the one sign I am really looking for as the first glimmer of hope this Bear market ends is for exactly that, an end to the War. I really don't think that's going to happen anytime soon.

Food for thought: Is there a chance of the effects of the pandemic, huge central bank debt and the war (if these things carry on for years as well as high inflation proving enduring) creating the environment for a world-wide depression ?

I think there will be very few who make money in 2022, (just look at the share competition results with almost everyone underwater).
2022 is all about capital preservation and he who loses the least does the best. 2023 could be more of the same. Its going to be a long, cold, wet winter in more ways than one !

[couta1]

The value of my portfolio has reduced,while my dividend income has increased considerably.
Rainy day fund remains in a healthy state.
My ASX small cap portfolio is currently a disgrace,however contains some exciting companies with huge potential .
Have a small amount of cash sitting at the broker's, which I am dithering about recycling,but can not make up my mind, between adding to our AFT,GNE,HGH,or STU .SFF on USX still looks the best buy, with a PE of under 3 and a gross yield of just under 12%,but luckily I am already over weighted with them.
Remain "well positioned."

I like your style Percy, honest yet positive, too many gloom n doom merchants on here and as they say misery loves company.

[ralph]

I like Percy's methods /style also in these bear markets its a good strategy .
But the doom and gloom is what you get when you wake up to find all the bears running amok .
And Beagles comments are spot on & recession will feed the bears & 2023 will see more feeding from them predicting the end is Impossible with all the looming doom & gloom, but certainty 2023 is the earliest

[Ricky-bobby]

Yes the psychology of all gets a bit tricky…. I addressed this 6 months ago by jigging things round. Got my mainstays (now all good Div earners) in direct brokering. All speculative stocks on Sharesies and a good dollop in Milford (tracking way better than me!). So currently not looking at my Sharesies account🤣. Things will come away again at the start of next year, there’s too much cash in the world. It will need to go somewhere eventually… Good opportunity to rebalance things and get ready for the next run!…

[Entrep]

If you were 40 yo, down 5% maybe from buys you've made over the last 1-2 years and didn't need the money until retiring, what would you do?

Sell a pump a sit in cash?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

No one is bullish. Absolutely no one that I can see at least.

Everyone assumes there is no end in sight to the Ukraine war.
Everyone assumes inflation will continue to run hot for the rest of the year.
Everyone assumes very large central bank rate rises still to come to curb inflation at any cost.
Everyone assumes energy prices will remain high, even with reduced demand.
Everyone assumes House prices around the world will continue to deflate.
Most assume recession is inevitable.
Most assume China will continue its covid zero policy and will continue with city wide lockdowns.
Most assume supply constraints will continue.
Most assume company earnings will decrease, even for those companies with pricing power to increase their pricing along with inflation.
Most assume the strong, healthy labour market wont last, with layoffs and slower hiring to come.
There is also much fear about one of three possible extreme outcomes also occurring, any of which would lead to a big nose dive in markets (1: Putin going Nuclear, 2: Xi invading Taiwan, 3: A new much deadlier CV variant)

So it seems likely we are in the most pessimistic mode currently.

Will be interesting to see what happens the moment we get just one good piece of major news.

(Personally I would guess a cease fire in Ukraine would be a big turning point in sentiment - and could happen at literally any time. I think the covid policy of China is likely to change post the 2022 CCP congress later this year, which is the most important event every 5 years in chinas political calendar - its where Xi will either increase or decrease his ruling power. I imagine covid zero is abandoned after that)

[Beagle]

If you were 40 yo, down 5% maybe from buys you've made over the last 1-2 years and didn't need the money until retiring, what would you do?

Sell a pump a sit in cash?

I've been ~ 70% in cash and short term deposits since November 2021 when my nose for trouble coming started firing off serious warning signals. My portfolio is down a little year to date but a lot less than the NZX down ~ 15% year to date. I think the market could easily lose another 15% in the second half of this year. Some people think that its best if you are always 100% invested in shares and timing the market is impossible. I don't subscribe to that theory. There's tens of billions in Kiwisaver funds. I think there's still a lot of people that have yet to, but will come to the conclusion its best to switch to a cash or conservative fund to weather this storm and all those "switch" requests will keep the selling pressure on the market darling growth shares on the NZX that those Kiwisaver funds love to hold.

Sometimes when the tide is going out at 100 miles an hour its best for the most part to be sitting on the beach. Summer will come again for the markets in the due course of time but my sense is just like the weather at present, its early Winter and this has a long way to go.

[Sideshow Bob]

No one is bullish. Absolutely no one that I can see at least.

Everyone assumes there is no end in sight to the Ukraine war.
Everyone assumes inflation will continue to run hot for the rest of the year.
Everyone assumes very large central bank rate rises still to come to curb inflation at any cost.
Everyone assumes energy prices will remain high, even with reduced demand.
Everyone assumes House prices around the world will continue to deflate.
Most assume recession is inevitable.
Most assume China will continue its covid zero policy and will continue with city wide lockdowns.
Most assume supply constraints will continue.
Most assume company earnings will decrease, even for those companies with pricing power to increase their pricing along with inflation.
Most assume the strong, healthy labour market wont last, with layoffs and slower hiring to come.
There is also much fear about one of three possible extreme outcomes also occurring, any of which would lead to a big nose dive in markets (1: Putin going Nuclear, 2: Xi invading Taiwan, 3: A new much deadlier CV variant)

So it seems likely we are in the most pessimistic mode currently.

Will be interesting to see what happens the moment we get just one good piece of major news.

(Personally I would guess a cease fire in Ukraine would be a big turning point in sentiment - and could happen at literally any time. I think the covid policy of China is likely to change post the 2022 CCP congress later this year, which is the most important event every 5 years in chinas political calendar - its where Xi will either increase or decrease his ruling power. I imagine covid zero is abandoned after that)

Good post LEK and agree.

I see that need to get back to some sort of global normality, but for this need China to ease off the Covid zero-policy, and a ceasefire or the like in the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Essentially some way of the situation changing or reversing, but with both "saving face". Don't know how likely that is.....