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 Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
Nicola Willis will be pivotable in Ohariu, overturning Greg O'Conner who has done nothing for them since 2017, and restoring the seat to National. Few of the Wellington western suburbs will be impressed by the Labour governments' two terms, embarrassed even, perhaps having had some part in ousting the independent Peter Dunne.
Wellington electorate is fraught, a constant battle between the greens, labour and national. After all it is the seat of parliament, the home of government. With a (second) green Mayor, who knows, history could be in the making like it was in central Auckland, though the left and far left may underestimate the blue rinse influence in the electorate, especially after an appalling performance by the past two governments, however they have been made up.
The absolute screw up by the greens influence on the cycleways to nowhere in Wellington that have been rushed through and are more dangerous that riding on the footpath! It's these things, however trivial they might seem, that influence votes.
It's a pity ACT have such a low profile in Wellington, after all it's where they will preside should they win a few more sets in government, alongside the blue national, even if in the cross benches. A bit of ACT would mix up the conversation, perhaps make a few right-leaning voters consider their options.
It might be the most interesting election since FPP, my senses are that many NZ electorates feel seriously ****ed over by this government and will be looking for change.
I will be very surprised if not most or all of the SI rural seats that unbelievably went to Labour last election, will swing back to National and ACT, including Damien O'Connor's West Coast- Tasman.
Last edited by iceman; 03-11-2023 at 11:59 AM.
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Julie Anne Genter could possibly take Rongotai for the Greens. Rongotai has been forever been a Labour stronghold. So much so Nate don’t even ‘compete’
Whatever happens the people of Rongotai will have a useless MP …one even more useless than incumbent Paul Eagle
Probably sums up the current state of our parliament
Last edited by winner69; 19-06-2023 at 08:28 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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Act deputy leader - Brooke van Velden vying for Tamaki (including taking over the old Police Station in St Heliers as electorate HQ- should Simon O'Connor be worried?? Could this be another Epsom??
Last edited by Jay; 19-06-2023 at 11:56 AM.
Reason: pressed "go" too soon
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Originally Posted by Jay
Act deputy leader - Brooke van Velden vying for Tamaki (including taking over the old Police Station in St Heliers as electorate HQ- should Simon O'Connor be worried?? Could this be another Epsom??
There's certainly momentum with her campaign. High visibility and she articulates ACT's common sense policies as well as the one New Zealand vision very well.
WE could be in for an election day upset in Tamaki - and I havew to say, good riddance to Simon O'Connor who is well past his used by date as an effective MP.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/29...tc4u3ymV4ioI5M
But is Act dog whistling on race, I press? No, she says. “What I’m hearing on the ground and what you might be picking up is people feel frustrated. People don’t feel they have the right to express their opinions and they are shut down. What we are also hearing is a frustration from people that government policy makes them feel like they no longer have a place in society,” van Velden says.
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2.00 pm today and all will be revealed :
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...AHIGBUJUWCX5Q/
The 10 closest electorates in Election 2023
Te Atatū NICHOLAS, Angee (NAT) TWYFORD, Phil (LAB) 30
Nelson CAMERON, Blair (NAT) BOYACK, Rachel Elizabeth (LAB) 54
Banks Peninsula WEENINK, Vanessa (NAT) McLELLAN, Tracey (LAB) 83
Mt Albert WHITE, Helen (LAB) LEE, Melissa (NAT) 106
New Lynn GARCIA, Paulo (NAT) RUSSELL, Deborah (LAB) 483
Te Tai Tokerau DAVIS, Kelvin (LAB) KAPA-KINGI, Mariameno (TPMAO) 487
Tāmaki Makaurau HENARE, Peeni (LAB) KEMP, Takutai Tarsh (TPMAO) 495
Rongotai GENTER, Julie Anne (GP) FITZSIMONS, Fleur (LAB) 792
West Coast-Tasman PUGH, Maureen (NAT) O'CONNOR, Damien (LAB) 915
Hutt South BISHOP, Chris (NAT) ANDERSEN, Ginny (LAB) 1,094
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Originally Posted by Balance
2.00 pm today and all will be revealed :
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...AHIGBUJUWCX5Q/
The 10 closest electorates in Election 2023
Te Atatū NICHOLAS, Angee (NAT) TWYFORD, Phil (LAB) 30
Nelson CAMERON, Blair (NAT) BOYACK, Rachel Elizabeth (LAB) 54
Banks Peninsula WEENINK, Vanessa (NAT) McLELLAN, Tracey (LAB) 83
Mt Albert WHITE, Helen (LAB) LEE, Melissa (NAT) 106
New Lynn GARCIA, Paulo (NAT) RUSSELL, Deborah (LAB) 483
Te Tai Tokerau DAVIS, Kelvin (LAB) KAPA-KINGI, Mariameno (TPMAO) 487
Tāmaki Makaurau HENARE, Peeni (LAB) KEMP, Takutai Tarsh (TPMAO) 495
Rongotai GENTER, Julie Anne (GP) FITZSIMONS, Fleur (LAB) 792
West Coast-Tasman PUGH, Maureen (NAT) O'CONNOR, Damien (LAB) 915
Hutt South BISHOP, Chris (NAT) ANDERSEN, Ginny (LAB) 1,094
Plenty could change.....or it might not.
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Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob
Plenty could change.....or it might not.
Most interesting one to me is Mt Albert.
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Doubt Bish will lose Hutt South
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If there is a 1-2 seat swing to the left from the specials and current electorate seats held by National, that could mean Brownlee is out of Parliament.
I’m personally not convinced the specials will reduce the right block seatnumbers but we’ll know soon
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