‘FOMO is back!’

[Bjauck]

In your 20's the biggest and best investment you can make is in yourself, it's not raiding your KS if you can leverage that money to increase your earning potential. I have benefited hugely from withdrawing some of my KS to purchase my first home at 24.

I think the bigger problem here is the poor understanding most NZers have of money and how it works, all of my knowledge and experience has been gained from actively using my money/assets. Nobody will learn anything from passively contributing to KS, many participants are still in the default fund they ended up in.

Owning your own principal house remains the best and most tax efficient investment/pension scheme in NZ. Governments will try to protect the value of housing (to keep a significant part of the voting electorate happy). You can leverage and trade your way up the ladder without attracting capital gains tax. You can enjoy a healthy tax free dividend from your investment by way of its accommodation value or net imputed rent. As with most asset purchases timing your entry can be important though!

[Logen Ninefingers]

With bank economists from 2 major banks tipping another OCR hike in November, ‘OneRoof’ cast about to find some ‘experts’ to give their views on whether this was a good idea or not. And who did they find?

Tony Alexander, the so-called ‘independent economist’ in thrall to the property industry who writes articles for OneRoof.
John Bolton, ‘Squirrel founder and head of mortgages’ - the ‘expert’ who predicted in July 2022 that mortgage rates had peaked.
‘EasyStreet Mortgages’ financial adviser Gareth Veale. (One wonders if highly indebted house buyers now in negative equity really believe they are on ‘Easy Street’).
CoreLogic chief economist Kelvin Davidson.
Jose George, New Zealand general manager of Canstar.
And finally, Jarrod Kerr - the chief economist at KiwiBank - who pronounced recently his belief that the Reserve Bank would be cutting the OCR as early as February 2024, and already looks to have egg on his face. Quote from Kerr: “We’d prefer they leave it alone. I think they’ve done enough. [The OCR] is the only tool they have. Obviously it hurts some people more than others, but it’s designed to hurt to get demand down to reduce inflation. Our call for a rate cut as early as February looks increasingly unlikely.”
Yes, Jarrod, it does. So what manner of cognitive bias is leading you to make such ridiculous calls, and what does your employer make of it all?

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https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/44123

[SBQ]

Another hike later this year? That's not the problem. The real issue is how long will interest rates stay at current levels. If mortgage rates stay at 7% for 2 or 3 years, that will definitely capture all the current mortgages when they reset for renewal. Then things will get exciting. The cash savers will be rewarded. The leveraged buyers will meet their fate.

[causecelebre]

Only have to look at the bond market where the "smart money" is to know that interest rates are going to stay persistently higher

[Logen Ninefingers]

What are they smoking….

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https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...near-term-skew

'While there are risks on both sides of our house price forecast, we think the near-term skew is to the upside'

29th Aug 23, 2:50pm

‘ANZ economists are sticking with their view that house prices will rise 3% in the second half of the year but now say that "risks appear skewed to the upside".
In ANZ's latest Property Focus, ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner, senior economist Miles Workman and senior strategist David Croy said housing data for July provided further confirmation that the house price cycle has turned.
"In July, the REINZ House Price Index (HPI) was 1.4% above April’s cycle low (after seasonal adjustment), with 0.6% m/m increases seen in both June and July," they said.
Annual house price inflation has "turned a corner", at -8.9% year-on-year on a 3-month moving average basis as against -10.6% in June and a low of -14% in February, the economists said.’