The Fourth Turning Is Here

[moka]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxeMEKwP4G4
The Fourth Turning Is Here — How Will This Crisis End? | Neil Howe

The Fourth Turning, that's the creative destruction that's when the Phoenix rises from the ashes, and that's when the nation and the Republic reinvents itself and becomes in some sense a new Republic.

19:57 Younger people in their 20s and 30s around the world are losing faith in democracy. It's not just America this is around the world. They think democracy is just a way for older people to keep what they have, for everyone to protect those who already have, to not give any opportunities to those who don't have, and to provide no security, and no institutional stability. Nothing that can be counted on by younger generations, and this too is an aspect of the Fourth Turning.

This is much like what we saw during the 1930s uh when increasingly democracy was also in disrepute and people were turning toward fascism or communism or you know any kind of alternative.

So in the Awakening (1960s – 1980s) societies supply too much order and people don't want it. During the Fourth Turning society is not supplying enough order and people want more.

And that's really where Millennials are, at the cutting edge, a generation that is you know shell-shocked by insecurity, lack of a middle class, lack of any security in their lives, a lack of any assurance if their standard of living will ever overtake those of their parents, lack of any sense that this nation is investing in its future, or avoiding future liabilities.

During The Awakening the movement is from community to individualism.

38:39 In order to actually take the country and society into and through that phase of creative destruction of public institutions, if it isn't war it will feel like war.

In the context of that climax we redefine who we are as a nation and interestingly we undergo so many of these social transformations from privilege to equality. Society becomes more equal by the end or before a Fourth Turning through the process of crisis and the institutions set up afterwards we go from defiance to authority. Authority becomes much more powerful by the end of a fourth term which enables Society to do bigger things as a unit, long-term policy reforms, big changes in policy, large infrastructure becomes much more likely by the end of every Fourth Turning.

[moka]

What we see all around us - the polarization, the growing threat of civil conflict and global war--will culminate by the early 2030s in a climax that poses great danger and yet also holds great promise, perhaps even bringing on America's next golden age.

The Fourth Turning Is Here. What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis Will End. By Neil Howe

Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting roughly eighty to one hundred years, the length of a long human life, with each cycle composed of four eras--or "turnings"--that always arrive in the same order and each last about twenty years. The last of these eras--the fourth turning--was always the most perilous, a period of civic upheaval and national mobilization as traumatic and transformative as the New Deal and World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution.

Now, right on schedule, our own fourth turning has arrived. And so Neil Howe has returned with an extraordinary new prediction.

https://www.fishpond.co.nz/Books/Fou.../9781982173739

[winner69]

Hey moka ….did you ever read that book last century

Was great read back then and amazing how things have turned out since

[justakiwi]

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[moka]

Hey moka ….did you ever read that book last century

Was great read back then and amazing how things have turned out since

No, I did not read the book. But in this interview Neil Howe said in the book written in 1997 they predicted that the Fourth Turning change would occur sometime in the middle of the 2000 and 2010 decade and it would start with a financial panic, a great devaluation, and we had 2008, the global financial crisis, the GFC.

"We had five sample events that we proposed, one was a WMD terrorist attack on New York, another one was a Russia was going to invade a former Soviet Republic, another one was a pandemic, another one was a tea party Rebellion forcing an end to any borrowing by the government and threatening to bring out Global Credit to a stop. The fifth one has not happened but I would argue it was still on the table and that is a nullification or secession by a state or group of states to defy Federal Authority."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxeMEKwP4G4

[Daytr]

Interesting. The 5th one is entirely possible or an attempt at least.
Even here in NZ there are secession movements. Typically redneck central.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Interesting. The 5th one is entirely possible or an attempt at least.
Even here in NZ there are secession movements. Typically redneck central.

I think you’ll find that the secessionist movements are incubating in the Left Wing / Maoridom axis….just look at the frightening and divisive views of the likes of the Greens and Te Pati Maori.

[Daytr]

I think you’ll find that the secessionist movements are incubating in the Left Wing / Maoridom axis….just look at the frightening and divisive views of the likes of the Greens and Te Pati Maori.

I think these sort of movements feature at both extremes, they say the political spectrum is circular for a reason.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I think these sort of movements feature at both extremes, they say the political spectrum is circular for a reason.

‘Horseshoe theory’ is evident in the case of the global far right and far left supporting the Putin regime, but in NZ you’ll be hard pressed to find so-called ‘rednecks’ (your term) and the left linked arm in arm in support of parliamentary electorate and local body seats allocated solely according to a persons race.
Currently NZ does have parliamentary electorate seats where only people of a particular race can vote, and this alarming and divisive ‘trend’ is increasingly being seen in local body politics.

[Daytr]

‘Horseshoe theory’ is evident in the case of the global far right and far left supporting the Putin regime, but in NZ you’ll be hard pressed to find so-called ‘rednecks’ (your term) and the left linked arm in arm in support of parliamentary electorate and local body seats allocated solely according to a persons race.
Currently NZ does have parliamentary electorate seats where only people of a particular race can vote, and this alarming and divisive ‘trend’ is increasingly being seen in local body politics.

Nope Rednecks are abundant in NZ as well.
The South Island Independence movement is full of them just as an example.
This site is full of them as well, those that don't follow science, those who support Trump etc.

I wish I could say our engagements have been entertaining but you are too one eyed for that to have eventuated.