Nzd usd

[winner69]

Unemployment is a lagging indicator and participation rates need to be considered.

the labour force participation rate dipped to 71.9%

This guy has the right idea ..from interest.co.nz … Henry Russell, an economist at ANZ, warned this could prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to lift the OCR from 5.50% to 5.75% at its next review on February 28. “A 25 basis points hike later this month has become a very real possibility, and RBNZ Governor Orr’s speech on 16 February could raise the market-perceived probability of a hike further,” Russell said.

[beacon]

Strong Global Dairy Trade auction
Higher NZ farmgate milk prices expected
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...IYY7L7GQX5QHY/

[beacon]

I am unconvinced that Conway is coming to announce RBNZ capitulation on OCR rates.

Conway did not capitulate on rates. And now this from Orr (emphasis is mine) ...

“Central banks around the world have been trying to explain this ad nauseam to the public - that whilst inflation is coming down, we are not there yet, and the last few yards may be very difficult, because we really need to anchor that 2 per cent inflation expectation,” Orr said.
The annual inflation rate fell to 4.7 per cent in the December quarter, according to the latest Stats NZ data - a level Orr noted was still “more than two times 2 per cent”.

While inflation expectations have been tracking down, the 38 business leaders and economic forecasters, surveyed as a part of the RBNZ’s Survey of Expectations in late-January, only saw the annual inflation rate falling to 3.3 per cent in a year’s time, and 2.5 per cent in two years’ time.

Orr said: “The number one thing that we’re always concerned about is that people would lose confidence that we are aiming for that 2 per cent with real vim and vigour.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...EGRCAF2HDJYZA/

[beacon]

Conway did not capitulate on rates. And now this from Orr ...

RBNZ holds OCR at 5.5%; no cuts until mid-2025
https://tmmonline.nz/article/9765228...until-mid-2025

And yet the market dumped NZD... I topped up. Thank you Mr. Market

[winner69]

Nzdusd dipped below 59 overnight

Beacon …what’s going on mate

Not heading back to 55/56 is it

[wizAlvin]

NZDUSD seems to have broken down from the very strong level of 0.605 to the very strong level and significant number of 0.6 - possible top to base of that zone. No prior evidence of a consolidation area here - plenty of occurrences of rejection off both levels.

[stoploss]

Nzdusd dipped below 59 overnight

Beacon …what’s going on mate

Not heading back to 55/56 is it

Probably is , negative GDP, retail sales muted ,households struggling to pay the rent or mortgage , NZX 50 gone nowhere for 2 years ,any good news stories out there ?

[beacon]

Nzdusd dipped below 59 overnight. Beacon … Not heading back to 55/56 is it

I've got my powder dry

[beacon]

Beacon …what’s going on mate

US Inflation surprised on the upside again, causing US 10 Yr Treasuries to perk up and punters to question whether the FED promised 3 FFR cuts in 2024 are really set in stone.
Meanwhile, speculation went up that RBNZ may cut OCR sooner than FFR are cut. Also, NZD moves remain beholden to China moves
We are slowly, but surely looking for China+ options - as seen in Winston openly condemning China cyber hacking NZ parliament etc. - despite Wang Yi coming in person to NZ.

On balance, there is no sane reason at the moment for NZD to visit 55/56c, but if it keeps moving in that direction I hope I have enough dry powder (like RBNZ )

[Daytr]

US Inflation surprised on the upside again, causing US 10 Yr Treasuries to perk up and punters to question whether the FED promised 3 FFR cuts in 2024 are really set in stone.
Meanwhile, speculation went up that RBNZ may cut OCR sooner than FFR are cut. Also, NZD moves remain beholden to China moves
We are slowly, but surely looking for China+ options - as seen in Winston openly condemning China cyber hacking NZ parliament etc. - despite Wang Yi coming in person to NZ.

On balance, there is no sane reason at the moment for NZD to visit 55/56c, but if it keeps moving in that direction I hope I have enough dry powder (like RBNZ )

No sane reason.... ? Not saying it will but it's not unreasonable at all to think the Kiwi could do that.

It will depend perhaps on which central bank acts first. The US economy is in a lot better shape than NZ. Other than Government debt that is & its funny we are the ones so concerned about the level of Government debt....

Adrian Orr on RNZ this morning for the first time signaled that lower rates are getting closer as inflation is returning towards the desired band and the economy weakens