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Thread: Nzd usd

  1. #1
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    Default Nzd usd

    NZ migration is up, OCR hikes are almost done, all sub 3%-4% mortgages will refix in the next 12 months, all bad news (lower milk prices, China issues, War, supply chain issues etc.) is out, and NZD has become oversold. Meanwhile, NZ exporters are benefitting, NZ is inching towards the next biggest market (for decades to come) India, and NZ election will soon be over.

    Regardless of electoral outcome, NZ will remain an oasis of relative financial, social and political stability, and remain coveted by visitors and migrants for its inherent geological and perceptual advantages. Time to load up on NZD, I think... against a basket of currencies, and especially USD (which has benefitted greatly from the Fed Funds rate falls, and rises as well as global flight to safety since Covid)

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    Quote Originally Posted by beacon View Post
    NZ migration is up, OCR hikes are almost done, all sub 3%-4% mortgages will refix in the next 12 months, all bad news (lower milk prices, China issues, War, supply chain issues etc.) is out, and NZD has become oversold. Meanwhile, NZ exporters are benefitting, NZ is inching towards the next biggest market (for decades to come) India, and NZ election will soon be over.

    Regardless of electoral outcome, NZ will remain an oasis of relative financial, social and political stability, and remain coveted by visitors and migrants for its inherent geological and perceptual advantages. Time to load up on NZD, I think... against a basket of currencies, and especially USD (which has benefitted greatly from the Fed Funds rate falls, and rises as well as global flight to safety since Covid)
    Ok currently .5907 , I think it goes lower yet , wait till we see the Govt books ahead of the election .

  3. #3
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    Default Positive Surprises Emerging

    IMF: Reserve Bank’s money printing improved the Government’s books - a little https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...EJPAWMSTTJJJQ/

    "Don't fret! Inflation is going away," says Orr.
    Last edited by beacon; 29-08-2023 at 12:37 PM. Reason: Added RBNZ Governor quote

  4. #4
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    Default Aiming for Surplus will beget a stronger NZD

    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Ok currently .5907 , I think it goes lower yet , wait till we see the Govt books ahead of the election .
    $4 billion of budget cuts... would be banked to offset deficits... to keep debt under 30% of gross domestic product and return the Crown accounts to surplus... This money would not be available to be reallocated into new initiatives. https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/123988/finance-minister-grant-robertson-said-money-saved-would-help-offset-growing

  5. #5
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    0.5860 overnight, Dairy auction up for the first time in 12 months.
    Kiwi looks oversold to me so I have picked some up.

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    It didn't break 0.59 convincingly at time of writing so took a small profit.
    Catching a falling knife came to mind so will monitor & maybe look to reset lower.
    Last edited by Daytr; 07-09-2023 at 08:26 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    0.5860 overnight, Dairy auction up for the first time in 12 months.
    Kiwi looks oversold to me so I have picked some up.
    I picked up some too, and will keep picking up now - especially if it falls further.

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    Quote Originally Posted by beacon View Post
    I picked up some too, and will keep picking up now - especially if it falls further.
    Yeah I think it might head towards 0.5650 so will keep an eye on it for a re-entry level.
    The current balance of payments means there is a constant sale of NZD every month.
    The US will peak at some point, probably relatively soon. The US also seems to be ahead of NZ in the fight against inflation so the FED may pivot before NZ.
    Last edited by Daytr; 07-09-2023 at 08:27 AM.

  9. #9
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    Cool I'll be buying again long before 0.565.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    Yeah I think it might head towards 0.5650 so will keep an eye on it for a re-entry level.
    The current balance of payments means there is a constant sale of NZD every month.
    The US will peak at some point, probably relatively soon. The US also seems to be ahead of NZ in the fight against inflation so the FED may pivot before NZ.
    By strengthening the USD, higher US interest rates stimulate other economies’ exports. This makes the kind of global recession that so many predicted even less likely.
    If you take away the reason for "flight to safety = USD", and NZ exports are becoming more competitive due to currently weaker NZD, you have a surprise building for NZD shorters.

    Last edited by beacon; 11-09-2023 at 08:50 AM. Reason: Abbreviate currencies

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by beacon View Post
    By strengthening the USD, higher US interest rates stimulate other economiesí exports. This makes the kind of global recession that so many predicted even less likely.
    If you take away the reason for "flight to safety = USD", and NZ exports are becoming more competitive due to currently weaker NZD, you have a surprise building for NZD shorters.

    Agreed re flight to safety, but NZ is a net importer so the balance of payments each month is against you.
    The NZD seems to have stabilized and has finally broken back above 0.59 as I write.
    But the chart still doesn't look great.
    It's far more likely that it will be a USD move than an NZD move that breaks the trend.
    It's quite a good move here against the dollar so it will be interesting to see if it is a turning point.

    If the dollar does turn it does make me wonder where oil might end up.
    Last edited by Daytr; 11-09-2023 at 06:53 PM.

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