Nzd usd

[beacon]

I follow this thread. I’m not knowledgeable on currencies and it’s useful to see what may be impacting movements

Thanks audiav. I also believe I've played a small but useful part for NZD ... by posting here.

Westpac - Only one bank left predicting OCR increase

ANZ ... revising its forecast, no hikes ... OCR on hold at 5.5% until a cut in February 2025.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...g-ocr-increase

[Daytr]

Yeah, more of a chronicle now - since there is not much others have posted.
Maybe not much vested interest in the pair to care, or not enough to say...
... So be it. It is still helpful to me. Writing here clears my thinking. Hope it helps others too..

Fair enough buddy. I enjoy your posts.

[Valuegrowth]

I am following this. Both currency trend and interest rates are very important to me. Thanks.

Thanks audiav. I also believe I've played a small but useful part for NZD ... by posting here.

Westpac - Only one bank left predicting OCR increase

ANZ ... revising its forecast, no hikes ... OCR on hold at 5.5% until a cut in February 2025.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...g-ocr-increase

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-us...g-202311171547

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dol...d-202311171817

[beacon]

Far too many "unknowns" (e.g. how many of the fiscal skeletons in the Lab Govt Cupboard are going to be revealed over the next few months?)

Willis today emphasised the realistic outcomes of that mini-Budget. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...ABU2KULPPFJHY/

”We’ve put emphasis on the word ‘mini’ in mini-Budget and the reason for that is we are necessarily constrained in what we can do between now and Christmas,” she said.

”What we will have is a half-year economic and fiscal update which will provide us an opportunity to transparently share with New Zealanders the real state of the books, the real state of the economy, for us to respond to that as a government in terms of what our fiscal priorities will be, what policy we’re kicking off to respond to New Zealand’s economic and fiscal situation and to get on with the main job which is reducing the cost of living for New Zealanders.”

Expecting range-bound volatility with an upward bias, until she bares the cupboard.
Expecting NZD to break up if no startling revelations in books, or major surprises in joint Govt. composition or policy ...

[beacon]

Fair enough buddy. I enjoy your posts.

Thank you Daytr. I have also found your inputs thought provoking. Thank you

[beacon]

I am following this. Both currency trend and interest rates are very important to me. Thanks.

Thanks Valuegrowth.

Thank you too for posting the above link https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-us...g-202311171547 . Succinctly worded conundrum, isn't it.

Tax cuts are inflationary, but should help NZ and Kiwis with cost of living. Higher for longer OCR hurts Kiwi spending power, but is NZD supportive ( and hence better for NZ overall).

Interesting to see that Economists at ING are bullish on the NZD/USD and believe that if new government does change the RBNZ remit – it will be a potentially bullish factor for the Kiwi.

[beacon]

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dol...d-202311171817

Technical Analysis: US Dollar bears regain the 100-day SMA, more downside on the horizon
According to the daily chart, the DXY holds a bearish technical bias as the sellers are seizing control, signaling the potential of further downward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending below its midline, suggesting a bearish outlook, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) histogram shows rising red bars.

On the broader scale, the index is below the 20 and 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), favoring the case of a negative outlook for the USD.

The antipodeans should benefit more than other G10 pairs in the long run from USD weakness. They generally also lead the others in breakouts. So yeah, stars aligning for NZD reversion to mean...

[beacon]

Risks: Iran, Hezbollah or Saudi martial involvement in MidEast War theatre - not just political posturing and noise!

Been five weeks of political posturing and noise since I last posted this, but so far the conflict remains essentially localized despite the shocking loss of life, property and ethics.
These risks are dissipating with time, but they remain...

[winner69]

Nz trade deficit was a little larger than the market expected. This could lead to an increase in the NZ dollar.