Nzd usd

[beacon]

Agreed re flight to safety, but NZ is a net importer so the balance of payments each month is against you.

It's far more likely that it will be a USD move than an NZD move that breaks the trend.

Agreed about the chart, and that it will primarily be a USD move. But US is a net importer so the balance of payments each month is against them too.

A weaker domestic currency stimulates exports and makes imports more expensive. This can suppress import demand, and can be disinflationary.

A strong domestic currency hinders exports and makes imports cheaper. This can boost import demand, can be inflationary, aggravate BoP, and deficits.

[Daytr]

Agreed about the chart, and that it will primarily be a USD move. But US is a net importer so the balance of payments each month is against them too.

A weaker domestic currency stimulates exports and makes imports more expensive. This can suppress import demand, and can be disinflationary.

A strong domestic currency hinders exports and makes imports cheaper. This can boost import demand, can be inflationary, aggravate BoP, and deficits.

Yes all that is true, it's just a matter of picking when. Biden's war on shale oil should mean over time US oil production will curtail which will also tip that BoP equation.

[blackcap]

Yes all that is true, it's just a matter of picking when. Biden's war on shale oil should mean over time US oil production will curtail which will also tip that BoP equation.

Lets go Brandon!

Not really sure if he will be there come November 24.

[beacon]

Ok currently .5907 , I think it goes lower yet , wait till we see the Govt books ahead of the election .

ANZ also concedes with a surprise that economic outlook has had a small upgrade...
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+12+Sep+2023

[Daytr]

ANZ also concedes with a surprise that economic outlook has had a small upgrade...
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+12+Sep+2023

My view is the economic reality of the dairy payout & higher interest rates are still to play out. Again though it may have nothing much to do with the outlook for NZ if the USD turns which it will at some point.

[winner69]

My view is the economic reality of the dairy payout & higher interest rates are still to play out. Again though it may have nothing much to do with the outlook for NZ if the USD turns which it will at some point.

Don’t forget about El Niño ….last real powerful El Niño was 1997/98 …the 2015/16 was a relatively mild event

NZD went below USD40 cents following that 97/98 El Niño

[Daytr]

Don’t forget about El Niño ….last real powerful El Niño was 1997/98 …the 2015/16 was a relatively mild event

NZD went below USD40 cents following that 97/98 El Niño

I'm not sure if you are having a laugh or being serious?
Nothing to do with the Asian Financial Crisis at the time then?

Mind you I have seen predictions of droughts for this summer which certainly won't make it any easier on the Dairy farmers if that does eventuate.

[winner69]

I'm not sure if you are having a laugh or being serious?
Nothing to do with the Asian Financial Crisis at the time then?

Mind you I have seen predictions of droughts for this summer which certainly won't make it any easier on the Dairy farmers if that does eventuate.

El Niño in 97/98 caused one long widespread drought and put NZ into a (deep) recession ……tough times they were with not only rural sector affected

[beacon]

"But now, the turnaround has begun and the deficit has shrunk over the past two quarters."

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/1...ists-predicted

Interesting that while US deficit has been expanding and will continue to expand under Bidenomics, NZ deficit has been shrinking, and will shrink more - given some austerity finally seeping into bipartisan NZ leaders. Bodes well for NZD:USD

[beacon]

What? No NZ recession?


New Zealand's economy grew 0.9% in the June quarter and avoided recession altogether
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/1...ion-altogether