Nzd usd

[beacon]

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has a dual mandate:
- to support employment at its maximum sustainable level and
- maintain price stability.

It has lifted interest rates from 0.25% in August 2021 to the current 5.5% = a MAMMOTH 22x increase already.
On the price stability side of the equation, annual inflation eased to 5.6% in the September quarter 2023 = About to fall below OCR rate.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/e...paign=nzh-home

[winner69]

Gold hits 2,000

[beacon]

US Wage Inflation tempering despite continuing job growth
US CPI down to 2.31% (truflation as of 27/10/23) versus Government reported 3.7%

[winner69]

Nzdusd down but hanging in over 58

[beacon]

US Fed Nov hike looks unlikely

From https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/fede...s-for-you.html

US Fed has already raised interest rates 11 times since last year — the fastest pace of tightening since the early 1980s

US average credit card rate is now 20%+ — an all-time high. Further, with most people feeling strained by higher prices, balances are higher and more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month.

US average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is up to 8%, the highest in 23 years, according to Bankrate. Also, anyone shopping for a new home has lost considerable purchasing power.

US average rate on a 5-year new car loan is now 7.62%, the highest in 16 years, according to Bankrate.

[winner69]

Nzdusd starts week at .5813

Where it will end week ……..maybe .5725 if no clear indication of make up of new people government

[ynot]

From https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/fede...s-for-you.html

US Fed has already raised interest rates 11 times since last year — the fastest pace of tightening since the early 1980s

US average credit card rate is now 20%+ — an all-time high. Further, with most people feeling strained by higher prices, balances are higher and more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month.

US average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is up to 8%, the highest in 23 years, according to Bankrate. Also, anyone shopping for a new home has lost considerable purchasing power.

US average rate on a 5-year new car loan is now 7.62%, the highest in 16 years, according to Bankrate.

There must be some pain in the US with these interest rates. They traditionally love spending beyond their means.

[beacon]

There must be some pain in the US with these interest rates. They traditionally love spending beyond their means.

They do indeed, and it was this consumption that manifested as growth in US Q3 data. https://www.bea.gov/data/income-savi...ersonal-income

But they'll eat into their savings now, if they keep consuming at Q3 rates - as Covid savings are depleting fast now, and real disposable income has been falling every month for the last three months.

2023 1023 US real disposable Income falling - US will condume further from savings.JPG

[beacon]

Nzdusd starts week at .5813. Where it will end week ……..maybe .5725 if no clear indication of make up of new people government

And if there is, which has a higher probability anyway - given the strong National/ ACT showing on election day - maybe it will be set to cross .6 next week?

[beacon]

NZD breached $0.58 USD in October 2023, which is its lowest level in almost a year. Things must get a lot worse for NZ, for NZD to stay under .6 with any longevity (which I don't see happening in the near term).


Measured against RBNZ’s trade-weighted index (TWI), which measures the New Zealand dollar against a basket of 17 currencies now, the fall was a lot less dramatic.


In fact, while we have been overly focussed on the recent NZD fall against USD (not surprising, given all major world currencies fell vs USD, post Israel-Palestine escalation), the TWI reveals NZD has already begun its rebound against others. See chart...

2023 1023 NZ RBNZ TWI shows NZD rebounding against 17-currency basket now.JPG
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/...weighted-index