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Thread: Nzd usd

  1. #11
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    Default Yea, no easy answers

    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    Agreed re flight to safety, but NZ is a net importer so the balance of payments each month is against you.

    It's far more likely that it will be a USD move than an NZD move that breaks the trend.
    Agreed about the chart, and that it will primarily be a USD move. But US is a net importer so the balance of payments each month is against them too.

    A weaker domestic currency stimulates exports and makes imports more expensive. This can suppress import demand, and can be disinflationary.

    A strong domestic currency hinders exports and makes imports cheaper. This can boost import demand, can be inflationary, aggravate BoP, and deficits.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by beacon View Post
    Agreed about the chart, and that it will primarily be a USD move. But US is a net importer so the balance of payments each month is against them too.

    A weaker domestic currency stimulates exports and makes imports more expensive. This can suppress import demand, and can be disinflationary.

    A strong domestic currency hinders exports and makes imports cheaper. This can boost import demand, can be inflationary, aggravate BoP, and deficits.
    Yes all that is true, it's just a matter of picking when. Biden's war on shale oil should mean over time US oil production will curtail which will also tip that BoP equation.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    Yes all that is true, it's just a matter of picking when. Biden's war on shale oil should mean over time US oil production will curtail which will also tip that BoP equation.
    Lets go Brandon!

    Not really sure if he will be there come November 24.

  4. #14
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    Default Govt opens the books - Not quite as gloomy as people expected

    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Ok currently .5907 , I think it goes lower yet , wait till we see the Govt books ahead of the election .
    ANZ also concedes with a surprise that economic outlook has had a small upgrade...
    https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+12+Sep+2023

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by beacon View Post
    ANZ also concedes with a surprise that economic outlook has had a small upgrade...
    https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+12+Sep+2023
    My view is the economic reality of the dairy payout & higher interest rates are still to play out. Again though it may have nothing much to do with the outlook for NZ if the USD turns which it will at some point.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    My view is the economic reality of the dairy payout & higher interest rates are still to play out. Again though it may have nothing much to do with the outlook for NZ if the USD turns which it will at some point.
    Don’t forget about El Niño ….last real powerful El Niño was 1997/98 …the 2015/16 was a relatively mild event

    NZD went below USD40 cents following that 97/98 El Niño
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Don’t forget about El Niño ….last real powerful El Niño was 1997/98 …the 2015/16 was a relatively mild event

    NZD went below USD40 cents following that 97/98 El Niño
    I'm not sure if you are having a laugh or being serious?
    Nothing to do with the Asian Financial Crisis at the time then?

    Mind you I have seen predictions of droughts for this summer which certainly won't make it any easier on the Dairy farmers if that does eventuate.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    I'm not sure if you are having a laugh or being serious?
    Nothing to do with the Asian Financial Crisis at the time then?

    Mind you I have seen predictions of droughts for this summer which certainly won't make it any easier on the Dairy farmers if that does eventuate.
    El Niño in 97/98 caused one long widespread drought and put NZ into a (deep) recession ……tough times they were with not only rural sector affected
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #19
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    "But now, the turnaround has begun and the deficit has shrunk over the past two quarters."

    https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/1...ists-predicted

    Interesting that while US deficit has been expanding and will continue to expand under Bidenomics, NZ deficit has been shrinking, and will shrink more - given some austerity finally seeping into bipartisan NZ leaders. Bodes well for NZD:USD

  10. #20
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    What? No NZ recession?


    New Zealand's economy grew 0.9% in the June quarter and avoided recession altogether
    https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/1...ion-altogether

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