Nzd usd

[Daytr]

I agree it would be good to diversify NZs trade but my question is does that increase trade overall? Perhaps some the rest will be transferred from one to the other. Trade with India may also create some trade tension with China as NZ has a pivotal role in the global dairy markets.

Can NZ produce more? Perhaps of some products.

Having had dealings with both China & India in the gold market, I know where I would rather direct my attention. Negotiations with Indians are exhausting and particularly frustrating and from my experience not worth the investment of time & energy.

[Daytr]

Big reason for that is 20% fall in our exports to China. https://www.stats.govt.nz/informatio...eptember-2023/
As I said earlier, what happens in China and what China decides to do or not do - is holding our growth, economy, and prosperity to ransom.
We need to develop alternative markets and trade partners urgently. US, UK and Australia saw the light long ago. We are just waking up...

Australia is more reliant on China than we are. India is a very different proposition to China.

I assume those stats are in NZD?
Considering the NZD was lower in the 3rd quarter than the 2nd makes those numbers even worse.

[winner69]

Biden not going too good in the polls …….could help usd

[beacon]

Australia is more reliant on China than we are. India is a very different proposition to China.

I assume those stats are in NZD?
Considering the NZD was lower in the 3rd quarter than the 2nd makes those numbers even worse.

Yea, in NZD.

[beacon]

Having had dealings with both China & India in the gold market, I know where I would rather direct my attention. Negotiations with Indians are exhausting and particularly frustrating and from my experience not worth the investment of time & energy.

It was the same with China, and remains so. See how long, contentious, crafty and cumbersome their border / trade negotiations are with their neighbours/ trade partners. How they get patents, what they did to Fonterra IP and what their reputation in WTO is, etc.

I don't know how long your experience in dealing with both nations is, or how recent - but I see India is changing. Remarkable has been its rise in repute, involvement in International organisations, conduct during Covid, and improvements in "ease of doing business" etc. According to the World Bank, India ranked 63rd in 2022 in ease of doing business across the world among 190 countries, improving its rank from 142 in 2014. Back in 2018, the Modi government also pledged to take the country to the top 50 in EoDB rankings. https://inc42.com/buzz/economic-surv...oDB%20rankings.

Anyway, India or China - no gain, without at least some pain. I never said making money is easy. But India is the lowest hanging fruit for NZ, IMO.

[beacon]

You realize dot plots are now showing Fed funds rates halving in 3 years, at the minimum. See what is happening to treasuries, share markets...
I'm being very conservative at 65c NZD USD. I expect NZD USD over 70c within 3 years now, as NZ- India relationship gets going.

Adrian Orr and Reserve Bank (RBNZ) tell MPs, new Government that inflation is ‘number one evil’ for everyone
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...FB26LYADRFB4Y/

[beacon]

... interest rates will have to remain high for longer, chief economist Paul Conway told Parliament's finance and expenditure committee (FEC).

RBNZ governor Adrian Orr told the committee ... record levels of net migration has meant that although per-capita consumption is declining, overall demand is rising, raising the question of “do we have to maintain more restrictive for longer with monetary policy.”

https://tmmonline.nz/article/9765226...kets+available

[beacon]

...While overall the Mini Budget decisions will improve the fiscal outlook presented in the Half Year Update, it is anticipated that once combined with the other signalled commitments in the Mini Budget (eg, tax plans) expected to be agreed in the future, the overall impact would be broadly neutral over the forecast period.

From Mini Budget Summary today

Go NZD!

[winner69]

Be .63 by Christmas eh Beacon

Go NZD!

[beacon]

Be .63 by Christmas eh Beacon

Go NZD!

Finance Minister Nicola Willis said: We are determined to bring down inflation.

The mini-budget is STILL ending up with a surplus, albeit negligible... after "laying bare" and dealing with Labour's many "financial time-bombs", and much of "economic and fiscal vandalism."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/mini-budget-2023-finance-minister-nicola-willis-lifts-lid-after-hyefu/PL3ISOCT7BFT5JF5RNOOZB3CNE/

So, why not? You're not giving NZD much time to work the magic, but you have my blessing. 63c by Christmas! Go NZD!
Christmas will come early for NZD if the 0.6275 resistance gets taken tonight. We tested it last night, even without Orr, Conway and Willis' pronouncements