Nzd usd

[beacon]

ANZ economists expect RBNZ to keep hawkish stance, before making abrupt OCR cut in August.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...CDNJHHAI4SULI/

[beacon]

If no flight to USD safety needed in the short-term, NZD is undervalued at under 61c. Time to U-turn back and breach 65c...

Westpac agrees, "should the Fed ease policy before RBNZ", which looks highly likely now... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

Higher dairy prices, stabilizing housing market, continuing net positive immigration, strengthening tourism in NZ...
While US get drawn in with more and more spending in proxy wars in Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel, Korea theatres...

[beacon]

YoY tradeable inflation rate 4.7%
YoY non-tradeable inflation rate 5.9%

QoQ tradeable inflation rate -0.2%
QoQ non-tradeable inflation 1.1%
https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/consumers-price-index-december-2023-quarter/#:~:text=annual%20inflation%20rate%20was%204.7,inf lation%20rate%20was%20%2D0.2%20percent

“While this is the smallest annual rise in the CPI in over two years, it remains above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range of 1% to 3%,” Stats NZ consumers prices senior manager Nicola Growden said. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350...-stats-nz-says

Since tradeable inflation, which is affected by international factors, fell more than domestic inflation... RBNZ not likely to cut soon, if it cuts at all this year, as RBNZ as well as the Government remain inflation hawks for the time being. Time for NZD to head towards 65c, and beyond if/when FED cuts aggressively

[winner69]

Hey beacon, what’s going on ….NZDUSD heading towards sub 60

Was it Conways fault saying NZ getting poorer and poorer with little hope of any improvement in productivity

[JBmurc]

Hey beacon, what’s going on ….NZDUSD heading towards sub 60

Was it Conways fault saying NZ getting poorer and poorer with little hope of any improvement in productivity

Yes and just watch inflation in goods head higher again I see Fuel prices once again marching higher ... no one in business I've talked to is talking about costs coming down ..

[beacon]

Hey beacon, what’s going on ….NZDUSD heading towards sub 60

Was it Conways fault saying NZ getting poorer and poorer with little hope of any improvement in productivity

I think it is more what Powell said, than Conways. Powell all but killed March cut, hurting all G10 - delaying USD weakness.
NZD hurt more due to China turmoil... but that is getting sorted out too, ostensibly.
I know what I'll do again, if it ventures sub 60

[beacon]

Yes and just watch inflation in goods head higher again I see Fuel prices once again marching higher ... no one in business I've talked to is talking about costs coming down ..

Strengthening the case of "higher [OCR] for longer." And hence for NZD gaining strength, IMO.

[beacon]

New data from Stats NZ today shows the unemployment rate was:
4% in December 2023 quarter,
vs 3.9% in the previous quarter.
vs 4.3% market expectation.


So, economy is holding up better than expected, RBNZ likely to continue holding (OCR) interest rates at current levels for longer. So NZD back up to 61c...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...CW5ZOUKPKSRDY/

[winner69]

New data from Stats NZ today shows the unemployment rate was:
4% in December 2023 quarter,
vs 3.9% in the previous quarter.
vs 4.3% market expectation.


So, economy is holding up better than expected, RBNZ likely to continue holding (OCR) interest rates at current levels for longer. So NZD back up to 61c...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...CW5ZOUKPKSRDY/

And the other unwelcome surprise for the RBNZ was that wage inflation was also stronger than expected.

[Daytr]

And the other unwelcome surprise for the RBNZ was that wage inflation was also stronger than expected.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator and participation rates need to be considered.