Nzd usd

[beacon]

Actually the Kiwi hit about 55c only a little over a year ago.

Quite right, and even .5469 about 3 years ago, but a lot of water has flown under the bridge since then.
NZ economy is on a surer footing, Covid and its related global uncertainty and economic lockdowns are behind us.
What in the current stronger environment makes NZD merit venturing into the 5 year low ranges.
In fact, if NZ gets its act together on India partnership and FTAs, we should be well above the long-term mean, and back in the .70s again

[Entrep]

56c seems quite improbable. Hard to see it going under .585 / recent lows. Happy to hear other opinions though

[beacon]

56c seems quite improbable. Hard to see it going under .585 / recent lows. Happy to hear other opinions though

Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr sees it at 55c by Christmas 2023. He might want to review his Target Price up though, seeing that the ANZ World Commodity Price Index gained 1.3% in September (ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner's note out today) after trending lower for the previous three months. The lift, although modest, was BROAD_BASED with ALL MAJOR SECTORS, except horticulture, lifting. https://watermarker.singletrack.io/A...Headers%3Dhost

[beacon]

The New Zealand economy has remained resilient in these uncertain times, with unemployment well below thelong-term average and the economy nearly 8 percent larger than before the start of the pandemic. The economyhas also benefited from growing exports, the return of tourists and international students and rising numbers ofskilled overseas workers to help businesses fill job vacancies. Free trade agreements now cover almost threequarters of New Zealand’s exports, up from less than half six years ago.New Zealand has a solid base as we face the challenges ahead...

Straight from the horse's mouth. So, NO reason why we should be revisiting Covid lows (and multiple reasons to come, as to why we should already be on our way reverting to the long-term NZD:USD mean ... https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/d...fsgnz-2023.pdf

[beacon]

Fonterra said it had raised its 2023/24 forecast farmgate milk price range to $6.50 - $8.00 per kgMS, with a new midpoint of $7.25 per kgMS, up 50 cents, reflecting better supply and demand dynamics.

In addition, recent Global Dairy Trade auctions had shown better demand. Third rise in a row lifts farmers’ spirits... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fonterra-ups-milk-price-forecast-to-725kg-midpoint/K7YSP7M4IZDVJENI7LFPK6SLEM/

[beacon]

A record number of migrants is one factor that might keep interest rates higher for longer.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/economy/rise-in-migrants-may-help-keep-interest-rates-high?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campai gn=nzh-home

[Daytr]

So we could be in limbo for a week or two whilst negotiations are going on with Winston. Already priced in?

[beacon]

So we could be in limbo for a week or two whilst negotiations are going on with Winston. Already priced in?

Definitely some element of that in NZD performance in the last three days, as NZD suffered more than most other currencies versus USD.
Also, USD benefitting as safe haven temporarily due to the raging Israel- Palestine War
So, volatility in the near term if horse trading happens, but the long term is UP

[FTG]

So, volatility in the near term if horse trading happens, but the long term is UP

Curious....What do you mean by the "long term" beacon? When you look at the weekly price chart over the last 12 months, she's clearly been trending DOWN since Jan, to now be sitting on 12 mth lows.

[Valuegrowth]

Fed could begin cutting interest rates in 2024. We should see gradual strenth in NZD from 2024 onwards.

Definitely some element of that in NZD performance in the last three days, as NZD suffered more than most other currencies versus USD.
Also, USD benefitting as safe haven temporarily due to the raging Israel- Palestine War
So, volatility in the near term if horse trading happens, but the long term is UP