Curious....What do you mean by the "long term" beacon? When you look at the weekly price chart over the last 12 months, she's clearly been trending DOWN since Jan, to now be sitting on 12 mth lows.
Indeed she has, but what goes down comes up too, and vice versa - depending on changes in perception, fundamentals, technicals, comparisons with competing currency baskets etc. or a combination of two or more of these varied factors. No trend lasts forever, good or bad, and NZ economy merits no rational economic reason why NZD should be revisiting 5-year lows again, as some have predicted/ desire.
I have been signaling some of the changes happening in the ground reality for NZD in the recent past, and you already know the long-term core competencies of NZ as a nation. We punch above our economic weight in the world GDP for a reason, and that hasn't changed for the worse either. I expect NZD reversion to its long-term mean in the long term, and a rise above its long-term mean if our Government can do what is required to boost NZ trade relationships and Trade agreements with India. Hope this clarifies ...
Indeed she has, but what goes down comes up too, and vice versa - depending on changes in perception, fundamentals, technicals, comparisons with competing currency baskets etc. or a combination of two or more of these varied factors. No trend lasts forever, good or bad, and NZ economy merits no rational economic reason why NZD should be revisiting 5-year lows again, as some have predicted/ desire.
I have been signaling some of the changes happening in the ground reality for NZD in the recent past, and you already know the long-term core competencies of NZ as a nation. We punch above our economic weight in the world GDP for a reason, and that hasn't changed for the worse either. I expect NZD reversion to its long-term mean in the long term, and a rise above its long-term mean if our Government can do what is required to boost NZ trade relationships and Trade agreements with India. Hope this clarifies ...
Not really beacon.
But perhaps you are just taking the mickey, with that rather long winded, cliche-laden, non-answer? Or maybe you are giving yourself & your 'predictions' as much wriggle room & margin of error possible?
So yeah, my original question still stands unanswered. What do you actually mean by the "long term"? Once we better appreciate what you mean by long-term, then I suspect that will give your predictions much more clarity & definition. Less opaque.
Perhaps look at it this way. In the context of the predictions you are stating here re the NZD/USD, does your "long-term" mean days, weeks, months, years or perhaps decades?
BTW. In regards to your rationale that you write to support your hypothesis that the NZD will "now go up in the long term"(whatever time period that is), I would simply say, "maybe, maybe not".
Lest also not forget that, often the other side of the NZDUSD pair asserts FAR, FAR more influence on what cross rate is printed, compared to what little old NZ Inc does or doesn't do.
Last edited by FTG; 14-10-2023 at 04:46 PM.
Reason: Grammar & structure
... maybe you are giving yourself & your 'predictions' as much wriggle room & margin of error possible?
I'm an observer, not an insider - so yeah, I'm cautious.
Originally Posted by FTG
... clarity & definition. Less opaque.
You may want to read my earlier posts. They have events, reasons, references.
Originally Posted by FTG
...does your "long-term" mean days, weeks, months, years or perhaps decades?
Months for the reversion to mean, years for shooting above long-term mean - both, if Government does what it needs to do, especially with India. I reserve the right to be wrong. Interesting, that you do understand "long-term" when I say "long-term mean"
Originally Posted by FTG
I would simply say, "maybe, maybe not".
Now, wasn't that "just taking the mickey, with that rather long winded, cliche-laden, non-answer? Or maybe you are giving yourself & your 'predictions' as much wriggle room & margin of error possible? ". Don't just simply say the outcome. Have the courage to lay out your reasons. We shall all benefit from another perspective.
Originally Posted by FTG
Lest also not forget that, often the other side of the NZDUSD pair asserts FAR, FAR more influence on what cross rate is printed, compared to what little old NZ Inc does or doesn't do.
Agree, but that is no excuse to NOT DO what we as a country (Government, Corporate, Citizen) should be doing. Goliath is big and awesome, but have some faith in li'l old David too.
Maybe 55 is on cards next week ….bad week this week
2023 1013 NZD range-bound volatility.JPG
Range-bound volatility exhibiting in the near-term chart, despite a black swan (Israel-Palestine War started over a week ago).
Probably a NZD gap up open on Monday, and beginning of reversion to mean - once National Government confirmed in 3 weeks...
Risks: Iran, Hezbollah or Saudi martial involvement in MidEast War theatre - not just political posturing and noise!
I'm an observer, not an insider - so yeah, I'm cautious....
...Months for the reversion to mean, years for shooting above long-term mean - both, if Government does what it needs to do, especially with India. I reserve the right to be wrong. Interesting, that you do understand "long-term" when I say "long-term mean"
... no excuse to NOT DO what we as a country (Government, Corporate, Citizen) should be doing. Goliath is big and awesome, but have some faith in li'l old David too.
Thanks for the reply beacon.
I have no strong views to offer, either way, on the "long term" (years +) travels of the NZDUSD.
Far too many "unknowns" (e.g. how many of the fiscal skeletons in the Lab Govt Cupboard are going to be revealed over the next few months?) & too many variables (e.g. geopolitical).
Over the shorter term (up to 12 mths), however, my opinion is that we will likely see continued strength in the USD (a contrarian view, I accept), which, historically, tends to inhibit the kiwi from taking meaningful flight. Hence, IMV, I expect to see the kiwi trading inside the range of 55-65 cents over the next 12 months.
Originally Posted by FTG
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