POLL - who are you planning on voting for? THIS POLL IS NOW CLOSED.

[justakiwi]

This is anonymous, so if you are willing to share, I think it would be an interesting exercise.

I, personally would really like to get a genuine idea of how people intend to vote, but I am very aware that some people might be reluctant to share for obvious reasons. If people wish to add a comment, that is fine, but please do so respectfully. If there are any accusatory or inflammatory comments, or personal attacks based on how others have voted in this poll - they will be deleted.

I find the responses so far, quite interesting.

[iceman]

I am 90% sure I will vote National this election. There is a simple reason for it. I've lived in NZ for 35 years, basically all my adult life and have loved it. I have worked very hard all those years and NZ has been very good to me. My wife also immigrated to NZ around the same time (not together) and feels the same.
3 of our 4 children have left NZ this year as they don't like where this country is heading and have MUCH better opportunities elsewhere. Our youngest will no doubt head offshore when he finishes his apprenticeship in a couple of years.

I simply do not recognise this country anymore with the huge changes over the last few years, mostly for the worse in my view, and we are highly likely to leave NZ for good if there is not a change of Government and a serious change in direction. It would be against our will and all our plans. So we are voting for a change.

[justakiwi]

I get it. More than some here might actually realise.

I know this is poll a very small sample of opinion, but I am quite surprised to see how close National and ACT are polling. I fully expected them to be the top two choices, but I figured most here would be leaning towards National.

Maybe the election will actually bring a surprise or two?

I am 90% sure I will vote National this election. There is a simple reason for it. I've lived in NZ for 35 years, basically all my adult life and have loved it. I have worked very hard all those years and NZ has been very good to me. My wife also immigrated to NZ around the same time (not together) and feels the same.
3 of our 4 children have left NZ this year as they don't like where this country is heading and have MUCH better opportunities elsewhere. Our youngest will no doubt head offshore when he finishes his apprenticeship in a couple of years.

I simply do not recognise this country anymore with the huge changes over the last few years, mostly for the worse in my view, and we are highly likely to leave NZ for good if there is not a change of Government and a serious change in direction. It would be against our will and all our plans. So we are voting for a change.

[blackcap]

Interesting to see no Labour voter has dipped their toe in the pond yet. And its Act ahead of National followed closely by NZF.

[ValueNZ]

I get it. More than some here might actually realise.

I know this is poll a very small sample of opinion, but I am quite surprised to see how close National and ACT are polling. I fully expected them to be the top two choices, but I figured most here would be leaning towards National.

Maybe the election will actually bring a surprise or two?

Not too surprising that on a forum discussing capital markets, the top choice is ACT probably due to their more free-market policies.

[causecelebre]

Not too surprising that on a forum discussing capital markets, the top choice is ACT probably due to their more free-market policies.

I would go further an say this forum has a larger proportion of libertarians

[777]

These are the results of the same week on nzissues.com site. They don't differ too much from this poll.

The Act Party Votes: 36 41.4%
The Green Party Votes: 2 2.3%
The Maori Party Votes: 1 1.1%
The Labour Party Votes: 1 1.1%
The National Party Votes: 26 29.9%
The New Conservatives Party Votes: 0 0.0%
New Zealand First Party Votes: 12 13.8%
NZ Loyal Votes: 1 1.1%
The Opportunities Party Votes: 0 0.0%
Democracy New Zealand Party Votes: 2 2.3%
Undecided Votes: 2 2.3%
Will not vote Votes: 4 4.6%

[justakiwi]

Very similar.

Out of interest, does anyone think ACT might throw up a surprise on election day, and take many more seats than has been predicted?

These are the results of the same week on nzissues.com site. They don't differ too much from this poll.

The Act Party Votes: 36 41.4%
The Green Party Votes: 2 2.3%
The Maori Party Votes: 1 1.1%
The Labour Party Votes: 1 1.1%
The National Party Votes: 26 29.9%
The New Conservatives Party Votes: 0 0.0%
New Zealand First Party Votes: 12 13.8%
NZ Loyal Votes: 1 1.1%
The Opportunities Party Votes: 0 0.0%
Democracy New Zealand Party Votes: 2 2.3%
Undecided Votes: 2 2.3%
Will not vote Votes: 4 4.6%

[Logen Ninefingers]

Very similar.

Out of interest, does anyone think ACT might throw up a surprise on election day, and take many more seats than has been predicted?

I honestly don't know how political polls capture trends the way they do with their small sample sizes, but they seem to get it pretty much right. Have you even been phoned by a pollster? I may have been phoned once about 20 years ago. I find it all to be a strange and murky world, the world of polling.

I believe in the last election ACT's vote was estimated to be lower than they got on election night; they surprised to the upside. The result showed that National voters did see that ACT was a credible alternative to National, and I believe these voters that defected then will stick with ACT. Then I believe there will be another group of National voters who will be watching Luxon very closely as to how he performs in the debates and over the last weeks of the campaign. The onus is on him to convince them that he is not 'Labour-lite'. If he seems to be just offering a watered-down version of what Labour has been serving up, there will be plenty that defect to ACT. The final numbers on the right side of things are still in play, it is not done by a long chalk. Where National will be gaining alot of support that won't go over to ACT is from that 'squeezed middle': younger families with kids who have bought houses for big dollars and are hearing 1/ tax cuts 2/potentially higher house prices. These are the issues that matter to these people.

[justakiwi]

I have never been polled by phone, but I do online surveys for various panels and there have been quite a few political surveys lately.

Interestingly, there may also be farmers swinging from National to ACT this time. My son commented the other day, that he likes ACT and Seymour, so I wouldn't be surprised if his (usually National) vote goes to ACT this time round. He probably won't be the only farmer considering it.

I have been re-reading ACT and National's policies today, and one or two of ACT's may not be quite as bad as I previously thought. But there are still some that concern me. So I am still on the fence.

I honestly don't know how political polls capture trends the way they do with their small sample sizes, but they seem to get it pretty much right. Have you even been phoned by a pollster? I may have been phoned once about 20 years ago. I find it all to be a strange and murky world, the world of polling.

I believe in the last election ACT's vote was estimated to be lower than they got on election night; they surprised to the upside. The result showed that National voters did see that ACT was a credible alternative to National, and I believe these voters that defected then will stick with ACT. Then I believe there will be another group of National voters who will be watching Luxon very closely as to how he performs in the debates and over the last weeks of the campaign. The onus is on him to convince them that he is not 'Labour-lite'. If he seems to be just offering a watered-down version of what Labour has been serving up, there will be plenty that defect to ACT. The final numbers on the right side of things are still in play, it is not done by a long chalk. Where National will be gaining alot of support that won't go over to ACT is from that 'squeezed middle': younger families with kids who have bought houses for big dollars and are hearing 1/ tax cuts 2/potentially higher house prices. These are the issues that matter to these people.