ELECTION POLL: 1 week till the election!

[Daytr]

Lots of people I know think this is the most uninspiring election they can remember. I wouldn't be surprised to see voter turnout lower than usual.
Be great to see a strong youth turnout

[justakiwi]

Yep, and you can bet your bottom dollar they won't be voting for National or Labour. If enough students, for example, turn out to vote for real change, this election could turn up a surprise or two.

Lots of people I know think this is the most uninspiring election they can remember. I wouldn't be surprised to see voter turnout lower than usual.
Be great to see a string youth turnout

[kiwical]

A good piece here on youth vote. Older poll though. August. Not surprisingly they don't really identify with any of the contenders for PM (unlike Arden) with over 54% saying they don't like any candidate for PM. According to this poll there is also a swing to the right for the youth vote. I'd agree that it seems to be a lack of interest in general. No real topic to fire up the youth. My nephew reckons he isn't going to bother voting. Parents will probably make him though. I personally think it's going to be the weakest youth vote turnout yet. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-young-voters

[justakiwi]

You might be surprised. A work friend was telling me last night that her daughter, who is a uni student in ChCh, is voting for TOP, and from what I could tell, it seems a number of students have become actively involved with the party. Given that Canterbury Uni is in Ilam, there is huge potential for Raf if he can engage with students in a meaningful way, which it seems he is doing.

A good piece here on youth vote. Older poll though. August. Not surprisingly they don't really identify with any of the contenders for PM (unlike Arden) with over 54% saying they don't like any candidate for PM. According to this poll there is also a swing to the right for the youth vote. I'd agree that it seems to be a lack of interest in general. No real topic to fire up the youth. My nephew reckons he isn't going to bother voting. Parents will probably make him though. I personally think it's going to be the weakest youth vote turnout yet. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-young-voters

[iceman]

You might be surprised. A work friend was telling me last night that her daughter, who is a uni student in ChCh, is voting for TOP, and from what I could tell, it seems a number of students have become actively involved with the party. Given that Canterbury Uni is in Ilam, there is huge potential for Raf if he can engage with students in a meaningful way, which it seems he is doing.

But probably not many of the students at Canterbury Uni are registered to vote in the Ilam electorate.

[BlackPeter]

But probably not many of the students at Canterbury Uni are registered to vote in the Ilam electorate.

You realize that the UoC campus is in Ilam - and so are all the university halls?

Actually - any student living in Ilam (and that's not just the locals, but especially most of the non local students, who live e.g. in one of the many halls or in rented flats) has to register as voter in Ilam. You need to vote where you live (for more than one month).

from the 1993 electoral act:

Qualification of electors
(1)
Subject to the provisions of this Act, every adult person is qualified to be registered as an elector of an electoral district if—
(a)
that person is—
(i)
a New Zealand citizen; or
(ii)
a permanent resident of New Zealand; and
(b)
that person has at some time resided continuously in New Zealand for a period of not less than 1 year; and
(c)
that electoral district—
(i)
is the last in which that person has continuously resided for a period equalling or exceeding 1 month; or
(ii)
where that person has never resided continuously in any one electoral district for a period equalling or exceeding 1 month, is the electoral district in which that person resides or has last resided.

While I don't know which percentage of students are enrolled at all (from memory something like 60%, but these are old numbers) and how many of them do live in Ilam - I would assume the number goes well into the thousands (of a total of 22.700 uni students in Christchurch). Might well make the difference.

[iceman]

You realize that the UoC campus is in Ilam - and so are all the university halls?

Actually - any student living in Ilam (and that's not just the locals, but especially most of the non local students, who live e.g. in one of the many halls or in rented flats) has to register as voter in Ilam. You need to vote where you live (for more than one month).

from the 1993 electoral act:


While I don't know which percentage of students are enrolled at all (from memory something like 60%, but these are old numbers) and how many of them do live in Ilam - I would assume the number goes well into the thousands (of a total of 22.700 uni students in Christchurch). Might well make the difference.

How many students do you think change and register their address in a student flat ? None of my 4 children did during their uni days nor did many of their friends as I know they were voting in their "home" electorates. But if you think the Chch uni students all registered as voters in Ilam and will vote mainly for TOP, then you can believe that. I don't.

[justakiwi]

I think it depends on where they are in their study (just starting out or almost finished), and what their plans are for when they graduate. If students intend to find a job in ChCh once they graduate, they may well consider registering for and voting in their local electorate, rather than Mum and Dad’s.

I am not saying it is a given, but I think it is very interesting to hear that at least some students are looking at alternatives to the status quo parties. We often underestimate our young people, and we should not. Even if you are right and students vote in Mum and Dad’s electorate, they can still give their party vote to TOP or whichever other minor party they choose to. So while Raf may not get their electorate vote, TOP may do.

Gotta start somewhere if we want genuine change, not just the BS “change” current parties are touting.

How many students do you think change and register their address in a student flat ? None of my 4 children did during their uni days nor did many of their friends as I know they were voting in their "home" electorates. But if you think the Chch uni students all registered as voters in Ilam and will vote mainly for TOP, then you can believe that. I don't.

[BlackPeter]

How many students do you think change and register their address in a student flat ? None of my 4 children did during their uni days nor did many of their friends as I know they were voting in their "home" electorates. But if you think the Chch uni students all registered as voters in Ilam and will vote mainly for TOP, then you can believe that. I don't.

I was just trying to provide some facts to answer your question. Sorry, if you don't like them .

Not sure as well I understand the tension in your post- While nobody knows whether it will work out for TOP this time to get into parliament - what are you afraid of if it works out for them?

TOP is a democratic and liberal party. No populists, no conspiracy theories, no ideological bias - and Raf Manji comes across as problem solver with common sense. No matter which camp you would like to see in government - I am sure he would improve the lot - or alternatively he would provide an outstanding opposition.

That's what matters - put good people into parliament, isn't it?

And of course - it might work out this time or it might not, but I am sure they will do this time much better than the last time (and it is not just my vote they gained since the last election). I am believing nothing - I am just saying that they do have a realistic chance. That's all.

What's wrong with that?

[Bjauck]

But probably not many of the students at Canterbury Uni are registered to vote in the Ilam electorate.

The student effect in Auckland City may have helped turn it green. Ilam definitely has more than average percent of people in the 15-25 age group, according to the 2018 census. Some may be politically aware. Younger people are probably not so wedded to a particular party.

Electorate profile.
https://www.parliament.nz/mi/mps-and...orate-profile/