Sibanye stillwater SBSW - MEGA miner trading at major miner price

[JBmurc]

Mega international miner undervalued IMHO thanks to the PGM crash in prices ..but IMHO great buying if you have a longer-term outlook as the miner is more than just PGMs

Marketcap-$3.2Bill USD (A$4.9bill)
P/E -4.26
Yield-8%+
Cash $1.2Bill(DEBT around the same)
SP- $4.55

SBSW holds 51% of DRD Gold that's worth U$822mill (A$1.2Bill) ..

I've only started my research into SBSW but so far I like the risk reward

The 10 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Sibanye Stillwater Ltd have a median target of 6.77, with a high estimate of 11.00 and a low estimate of 3.85. The median estimate represents a +45.19% increase from the last price of 4.67.....

https://seekingalpha.com/article/464...tient-investor

Sibanye Stillwater is a South African mining and metals processing group with a diverse portfolio of projects spanning five continents. They are among the world's largest recyclers of platinum group metals (PGM) from auto-catalysts and have controlling interests in mine tailings retreatment operations. Sibanye produces platinum, palladium, rhodium, gold, ruthenium, nickel, chrome, copper, and cobalt, securing various revenue streams.

As The Value Corner, fellow Seeking Alpha analyst wrote in his June article, Sibanye has a wide economic moat that is built on its extensive mining and processing operations, including battery metals, and its global geographic reach. Initially a South African gold mining company, it has expanded through acquisitions and diversification, reducing its reliance on gold prices for profitability. The acquisition of the U.S. PGM business Stillwater has proven crucial for geographical diversification and stability. To date, Sibanye holds controlling stakes in international mining and processing operations, diversifying into "green metals," such as lithium and nickel, which are used in decarbonization projects. The company's diversified portfolio across a wide geographic area helps mitigate risks associated with relying on a single commodity or market, particularly in South Africa's complex political environment.

Anyway, the company's largest revenue segment is South African underground PGM operations - this is the company's largest resources base of all segments:


DISC -BUYING SBSW for long term hold

[JBmurc]

23Fy production numbers blow my mind for just under $A5bill cap miner... put this in context to other major miners we follow on ASX

GOLD -621Koz

SA PGM 4E- 1.7Moz

US PGM 2E- 421Koz

3E PGM recycling - 599Koz (SS owns smelters major recycler of cats in the world etc)

NIckel - 6800 ton ..

...so IMHO some very impressive production numbers esp PGMs .. now the PGM bumping along at record lows ...but one thing I've learnt over the 20 years+ investing in the mining sector ..you buy when the resource is hated as its only a matter of time till it becomes a market darling once again ...

Sibanye battery metal recent presentation>>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X8qmTPjddg&t=387s

As SS isn't just a PGM miner but is now moving into Lithium,Uranium,Zinc,Copper with many new projects with great upside production profiles .. IMHO SS is moving in the direction to being a mining powerhouse in the years ahead.


I see forward EPS forecasts for SS just in the short term aka 25Fy sees EPS $2.32 !!!!! here I'm happy to buy up more $4.50's

[JBmurc]

Impressive Lithium project -refinery outlook for ...SS.

to think you have AZS with near on $2bill cap ... great Li drill results ,,nil MRE ,nil PFS/DFS , no MRE ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S80n18Ky5vw

[JBmurc]

Some good reading on SBSW

https://seekingalpha.com/article/465...are-not-enough

planning to add some more tonight on Pd weakness and maybe get them in the low 4.40's

[JBmurc]

After a few more hours of research Planning to just kick back to the new year with SBSW ..PGM price will continue to be low for some time..and I'd say the 4Q for SBSW won't be the best so only really dipped my toe in at this point with the plan to BUY up large maybe in the low $4 range JAN-FEB 24 ...

PGM turnaround 2025 will be a wake-up call for the sector and see the monster SBSW get some love to hitting those very high levels again later decade + fat yield

[JBmurc]

SP from $4.55 to $5.53 since I first posted solid 20%+ return ... I did sell so I could secure more GAU but think SBSW won't be far behind the growth I expect from GAU over the next 12months

[Ferg]

Nicely done JB. The forecast EPS for FY25 you mentioned earlier - will this be a one off spike due to mineral prices spikes or similar? Or will this be a new sustainable base? I haven't done any research into this one yet but you have me curious....

[JBmurc]

Nicely done JB. The forecast EPS for FY25 you mentioned earlier - will this be a one off spike due to mineral prices spikes or similar? Or will this be a new sustainable base? I haven't done any research into this one yet but you have me curious....

It all depends on how the PGMs go ..SBSW is such a large producer of PGM from memory 1.7MOz pa ... so $100oz more across the PGM basket =FCF + $170mill ...