Outlook for interest rates

[Jenny Ruth]

Hi all. My latest column published on my Substack, Just the Business, looks at whether we should believe the Reserve Bank that interest rates may have to rise again next year and that the first rate cut won't be before mid-2025. The headline gives the game away: RBNZ wants us to believe the unbelievable.
You can read it here:
https://justthebusinessjennyruth.sub...e-unbelievable

[SailorRob]

Some good points and data.

No mention of the most important input into everything though. Oil prices.

[Jenny Ruth]

Hi SailorRob. I'd say oil prices is another thing RBNZ can't do anything about.

[SailorRob]

Hi SailorRob. I'd say oil prices is another thing RBNZ can't do anything about.

Well... They can solve climate change, inequality and appease the Forrest gods. Not much Orr cannot do!

[GTM 3442]

I wonder what President Putin's trip to Saudi Arabia and the Emirates might mean for those oil prices.

[mistymountain]

I wonder what President Putin's trip to Saudi Arabia and the Emirates might mean for those oil prices.

And to Gold Prices....will Russia continue to lever the BRICS towards Gold as a way to transact? https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanl...h=2db22ec65eb3

May take more years to achieve but given their Central Banks have significant gold hoards, history may well repeat...

[GTM 3442]

Gold is far too complicated. I’d look to a trend for trade to happen in currencies other than USD. Although what the Russian oil industry can do with all those Indian rupees is a moot point.

[Valuegrowth]

Anything can happen to oil. Even can go below $50. I have studied volatility and major trends in the commodity market.

[Valuegrowth]

One thing is for sure. Cannot expect major drop in interest rates in 2024 as well. Still it will be high.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/ba...232917707.html

[stoploss]

One thing is for sure. Cannot expect major drop in interest rates in 2024 as well. Still it will be high.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/ba...232917707.html

OCR in NZ is way higher than the RBA cash rate V-G . We have done our tightening cycle . The market
wants to take rates lower here , just the RBNZ handbrake . Banks making massive profits and record margins on mortgages currently . IMO , we will see cuts to the OCR in 2024 .