2023 Returns

[ValueNZ]

OCA +0%, 78% of my portfolio
STLA +19.5%, 16.5% of my portfolio
PARA +20.7%, 2.5% of my portfolio
JXN +25.9%, 1.9% of my portfolio
DVA +31.7%, 1.1% of my portfolio

Total return this year 4.6% compared to the SP500 24.7% is a 20.1% underperformance. Most would look at that and say that it is a very disappointing performance, but in reality one year return is irrelevant over the long term for obvious reasons. The stock market in the short term is a voting machine whilst in the long term it is a weighing machine. So I remain unbothered entirely.

[Maverick]

OCA +0%, 78% of my portfolio
STLA +19.5%, 16.5% of my portfolio
PARA +20.7%, 2.5% of my portfolio
JXN +25.9%, 1.9% of my portfolio
DVA +31.7%, 1.1% of my portfolio

Total return this year 4.6% compared to the SP500 24.7% is a 20.1% underperformance. Most would look at that and say that it is a very disappointing performance, but in reality one year return is irrelevant over the long term for obvious reasons. The stock market in the short term is a voting machine whilst in the long term it is a weighing machine. So I remain unbothered entirely.

I’m very interested Value, why do you have such an inordinate measure of OCA.
My own views on OCA are blatant and my weighting is easy to guess. I’m curious why would a smart young fella like yourself , in the age of diversification, go allmost “ all in” .
So why such conviction and why only OCA in the RV sector?
( if you do reply , maybe pop it onto the OCA thread)

[Bjauck]

OCA +0%, 78% of my portfolio
STLA +19.5%, 16.5% of my portfolio
PARA +20.7%, 2.5% of my portfolio
JXN +25.9%, 1.9% of my portfolio
DVA +31.7%, 1.1% of my portfolio

Total return this year 4.6% compared to the SP500 24.7% is a 20.1% underperformance. Most would look at that and say that it is a very disappointing performance, but in reality one year return is irrelevant over the long term for obvious reasons. The stock market in the short term is a voting machine whilst in the long term it is a weighing machine. So I remain unbothered entirely.

As this is a thread within the NZX category with respect to the returns in 2023, your return has still has exceeded the approx 1.6% return from the NZX50 index. Your foreign shareholdings compensated for the lacklustre performance of your main NZ listed stock.

Sure it is the long term performance that counts, but sometimes you need to sell asap.

[Ferg]

Thanks SR for your reply. I do not disagree with what you say but some additional context is required.

Regarding the property - a few points. You have taken one single property and compared against an index of 500 companies. There will always be thousands of examples both ways that come out far better off and you do suggest this in your post.

Agree 100% except for context we had a series of family homes (not just one) and as I touched on earlier the gains were made in the buying (real estate "D"s include distress, death, divorce etc which present good buying opportunities) as well as the market multiple expansion you touched on. I agree anecdotes do not trump larger data sets, but as you know I was working with my own experience.

Your situation is interesting however, you talk about ownership OPEX but not CAPEX and over 26 years I would expect that you would have spent many hundreds of thousands on upgrades and maintenance but some do get away with not doing this.

Understood. My definition of ownership opex includes house maintenance and this was in my calculations. Early upgrades were captured via 2 x subsequent equity injections in my calculations. Since 2006 realised gains were recycled into the upgrades on the next property so any property capex was self funding. I didn't want to mention this earlier but we released equity on the last 3 sales and purchases, not all of which was recycled into the family home. Actual returns would be significantly higher had I included those equity releases. The values released were enough to buy a freehold property for my son. So yes I am very overweight in property.

The biggest point I would like to make is that you are comparing perhaps the worst 26 year return for the market in 100 years (or close to it, generally over 26 years the return would approximate 10%) and the best 26 years for property in 4 to 500 years of data, which has come about from massive multiple expansion from 3 x median incomes to 9/10 times and to 40 to 60 times earnings.

Understood. Trouble is I cannot invest in shares outside of my personal investment horizon, so I just kept stepping off one property elevator and onto the next while I had to own a family home. If I was going to have equity tied up in a non-income producing asset, then I wanted to ensure that was not wasted. The opportunity presented itself and the rest is history. Like I said, I was lucky and I learned from my first mistake without losing too much.

Point being the market can spit out 8% for the next 26 years, but consider this. Let's call the median house in NZ 800k. For it to compound nominal for the next 26 years at 8% you are talking 6.4 million for the Joe blogs house in the suburbs.

Now the only way this can happen is for NZ median income to skyrocket due to massive productivity gains, huge inflation (then it's not real anyway) or deeply negative interest rates with banks willing to lend. The median income to prices would have to be higher than they have ever been anywhere in the world in history by many times.

Understood and I agree. I'm not talking about a single median house - we had a series of family homes where we stepped off one elevator and onto the next. So I agree a simple buy and hold strategy will not provide an 8% CAGR over the same time period in future for a single property. We will look to release more equity again either 2024 or 2025 and I will put that capital to work elsewhere. We aren't traders by any definition, just lucky (and we can spot a good bargain).

Remember the SP500 calculator only tells you what your return would have been from 1997, in reality you pumped money into the house investment over the whole time period and this would need to be compared to dollar cost averaging into an equity index fund.

My overall point is that yes NZ property has kept up over the last 25 years somewhat - but to do so it has had to increase in multiples to the highest we have data for, where the market has not. This for obvious reason cannot continue.

100% concur with the second half but we have not pumped any other funds into property since 2006 as per my comments above.

I don't disagree with any of what you say regarding future potential returns and the relativities of the 2 markets over that time frame. But property (including the dreaded family home) can yield these sort of returns without relying on excessive leverage. I see people I know making dumb decisions on property purchases and they could take decades to get a return, if at all. I watched extended family members buy and hold over the years to only fall behind those that moved every 5-9 years. So I copied that. It was a simple yet effective strategy.

[Leemsip]

Hard for me to calculate as I do an annual wrap up in July. Roughly tho

KiwiSaver 25% of portfolio 5%,gain. Mostly in cash fund till nov.

Cash and bonds 40% of portfolio 5% gain. Bonds locked in for long term at 6% plus in good companies so happy with this. Cash either already deployed or rolling off term deposits Jan to june 24.

Stonks 35% of portfolio on average for the year, 10% gain. Some big winners and loosers here which have netted out. Got some private companies which I haven’t included. My stonk portfolio is up to 50% of total portfolio now as I have put some more risk on since nov. Aiming to get this up to 60% in 2024 if I have the courage.

So overall 7% ish gains maybe. Sounds trash but I’m somewhat happy with this as I took risk off the table early and hid in cash. Also learned a few hard lessons without getting beaten too badly. Goal is a low risk 10% per year. I’ll be in better shape to answer this next year with proper calcs.

[Leemsip]

Forgot to add that I thought I was a genius in 2021 and 2022 as had amazing returns. Quite a sobering 2023 and have come back to earth now.

I do think there should be some sort of risk measure on gains as well… which gets back to SR point on 5 or 10 year returns are the ones that matter. Anyone can take risks and win once.

[Muse]

Forgot to add that I thought I was a genius in 2021 and 2022 as had amazing returns. Quite a sobering 2023 and have come back to earth now.

I do think there should be some sort of risk measure on gains as well… which gets back to SR point on 5 or 10 year returns are the ones that matter. Anyone can take risks and win once.

That's why I like sharesight....you can look at your 1 year returns and think that's great, but if you make it a 2 year return and some of those component returns are lower, it reminds you those gains were reversal from an underperformance in the prior year. Like I said earlier I found 2022 tough work, but this year was rather good as some of my dogs came right and I put a lot of cash to work into equities which (so far) seem to be working well.

Snapshot of my listed equity portfolio - 1 year total returns (capital gains plus net dividends, FX, and fees - realised + unrealised). Listed equities are just one component of my overall investment portfolio but am here to just talk listed shares.

Australia
Acrow (medium holding) +73.8%
Atlas Pearls (small) +52.8%
Block (M) +28.3%
Harmoney (S) +13.9%
Insignia Financial (S) -23.5%
Infomedia (S) +25.2%
Link Admin (S) +102.1%
Liontown (M) + 123.0%
Netwealth (S) +33.8%
Pexa (XS) -12.5%
Praemium (M) -50.7%
Smartpay ASX (M) +43.5%
Supply Network (S) +36.5%
Universal Store (M) + 57.7%
Webjet (XL) +20.5%
Wisetech Global (M) +50.3%


NZ
2CC (S) +18.9%
AFT (S) -3.8%
AIA (XS) +13.4%
ALF (XS) +9.1%
ARV (M) +2.7%
CEN (M) +8.8%
EBO (M) -14.5%
FRW (S) -6.7%
GNE (M) +0.7%
HGH (L) -3.3%
IFT (M) +18.9%
MFT (L) +7.8%
RAK (XS) +23.2%
SCL (M) -5%
SKC (M) -10.7%
SKL (L) +3.8%
SKT (XS) +24.3%
SPK (M) +5%
Smartpay NZX (M) +42.8%
SUM (M) +7.05%
THL (M) +17.3%
TRA (XL) +46.2%
VSL (XS) +4.1%

USA
AVUV (XXXL) +24.8%
VOO (XXXL) +26.6%

Waiting for those fireworks to go off, so rockstar I've become that I pass time on sharetrader doing this.

Happy new year everyone - may 2024 be a healthy, happy, prosperous time for all.

[percy]

That's why I like sharesight....you can look at your 1 year returns and think that's great, but if you make it a 2 year return and some of those component returns are lower, it reminds you those gains were reversal from an underperformance in the prior year. Like I said earlier I found 2022 tough work, but this year was rather good as some of my dogs came right and I put a lot of cash to work into equities which (so far) seem to be working well.

Snapshot of my listed equity portfolio - 1 year total returns (capital gains plus net dividends, FX, and fees - realised + unrealised). Listed equities are just one component of my overall investment portfolio but am here to just talk listed shares.

Australia
Acrow (medium holding) +73.8%
Atlas Pearls (small) +52.8%
Block (M) +28.3%
Harmoney (S) +13.9%
Insignia Financial (S) -23.5%
Infomedia (S) +25.2%
Link Admin (S) +102.1%
Liontown (M) + 123.0%
Netwealth (S) +33.8%
Pexa (XS) -12.5%
Praemium (M) -50.7%
Smartpay ASX (M) +43.5%
Supply Network (S) +36.5%
Universal Store (M) + 57.7%
Webjet (XL) +20.5%
Wisetech Global (M) +50.3%


NZ
2CC (S) +18.9%
AFT (S) -3.8%
AIA (XS) +13.4%
ALF (XS) +9.1%
ARV (M) +2.7%
CEN (M) +8.8%
EBO (M) -14.5%
FRW (S) -6.7%
GNE (M) +0.7%
HGH (L) -3.3%
IFT (M) +18.9%
MFT (L) +7.8%
RAK (XS) +23.2%
SCL (M) -5%
SKC (M) -10.7%
SKL (L) +3.8%
SKT (XS) +24.3%
SPK (M) +5%
Smartpay NZX (M) +42.8%
SUM (M) +7.05%
THL (M) +17.3%
TRA (XL) +46.2%
VSL (XS) +4.1%

USA
AVUV (XXXL) +24.8%
VOO (XXXL) +26.6%

Waiting for those fireworks to go off, so rockstar I've become that I pass time on sharetrader doing this.

Happy new year everyone - may 2024 be a healthy, happy, prosperous time for all.

Thanks for sharing.

[alokdhir]

That's why I like sharesight....you can look at your 1 year returns and think that's great, but if you make it a 2 year return and some of those component returns are lower, it reminds you those gains were reversal from an underperformance in the prior year. Like I said earlier I found 2022 tough work, but this year was rather good as some of my dogs came right and I put a lot of cash to work into equities which (so far) seem to be working well.

Snapshot of my listed equity portfolio - 1 year total returns (capital gains plus net dividends, FX, and fees - realised + unrealised). Listed equities are just one component of my overall investment portfolio but am here to just talk listed shares.

Australia
Acrow (medium holding) +73.8%
Atlas Pearls (small) +52.8%
Block (M) +28.3%
Harmoney (S) +13.9%
Insignia Financial (S) -23.5%
Infomedia (S) +25.2%
Link Admin (S) +102.1%
Liontown (M) + 123.0%
Netwealth (S) +33.8%
Pexa (XS) -12.5%
Praemium (M) -50.7%
Smartpay ASX (M) +43.5%
Supply Network (S) +36.5%
Universal Store (M) + 57.7%
Webjet (XL) +20.5%
Wisetech Global (M) +50.3%


NZ
2CC (S) +18.9%
AFT (S) -3.8%
AIA (XS) +13.4%
ALF (XS) +9.1%
ARV (M) +2.7%
CEN (M) +8.8%
EBO (M) -14.5%
FRW (S) -6.7%
GNE (M) +0.7%
HGH (L) -3.3%
IFT (M) +18.9%
MFT (L) +7.8%
RAK (XS) +23.2%
SCL (M) -5%
SKC (M) -10.7%
SKL (L) +3.8%
SKT (XS) +24.3%
SPK (M) +5%
Smartpay NZX (M) +42.8%
SUM (M) +7.05%
THL (M) +17.3%
TRA (XL) +46.2%
VSL (XS) +4.1%

USA
AVUV (XXXL) +24.8%
VOO (XXXL) +26.6%

Waiting for those fireworks to go off, so rockstar I've become that I pass time on sharetrader doing this.

Happy new year everyone - may 2024 be a healthy, happy, prosperous time for all.

Happy New Year mate ...U r going great as expected but what surprises and impresses me the most that U can hold and track so many stocks ...must be having great time everyday just looking at market data ...lol Real Rockstar

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...EX5BHDEOQK57Q/

This helped boost returns for all non NZX investors ...dogs of 2023 were NZX / ASX ...maybe they will catch up as leaders go sideways . Just like in any bull run first the large caps run then small caps catch up ...what actually happened in USA with Russel 2000 ....on bigger scale ASX/ NZX are the Russel 2000 of the world indexes