2023 Returns

[RupertBear]

Great posts Muse, thanks for sharing, I found them very interesting. Well done on your investments and I hope 2024 is another cracker year for you

[SailorRob]

Why put the thread in the NZX category then? Sure, NZ government policies have made the NZ listed stock exchange into a small defensive enclave. However a significant proportion of potential NZ investors would not want to invest in foreign exchanges given the different tax regime for foreign investments and currencies. Hence the relevance of the NZX indices to a post in the NZX threads.

Yes, the NZX category simply has far more following than any other section.

I want to invest where I can actually do well and then pay tax on my earnings, rather than pay less or no tax by investing in the second world.

[SailorRob]

Thanks SR.

Private companies I mean non listed investments early stage Nz companies.

My large cash anmd bond allocation has been due to expectations of a recession in 2023. I was 110-120% invested in 2020 and 2021 (took out mortgage), so I’m not always filled with caution. I continue to expect recession in 2024, I can see it playing out now and will be exacerbated by govt pulling back spending, construction down etc all very pro cyclical for a deeper recession than most expect. Bonds should perform pretty well in this environment and I will take capital gains if they are decent.

Have resolved this year to remain much more invested throughout the cycle and just pick either different countries or recession proof stocks eg SCL which exports most products or bond proxies eg Spk. Agree with your sentiments on holding cash for too long.

Appreciate the details and the advice. You can see I’m not taking some of it lol, as I can’t get away from forecasting macro.

Let’s hear from some other veterans….

Yes as you allude to here, it's not the ability to forecast what happens that matters, it's the ability to forecast better than the market.

Here you are saying that 'I can see it playing out now' but you could also see it playing out last year. I guess you mean you are more certain now. You are saying that you are financially positioned to profit from being able to forecast a deeper recession than what is currently priced in. If bonds in fact do well and you take capital gains then you have to do something with them. Bond yields will then be low, can you get them into equities cheaply? Or will the forward looking market have priced you out?

For me there is no chance at all of making money out of predicting a recession this year, let alone predicting a deeper one than the market can see given the reasons you highlight that anyone can plainly see.

I don't understand going through all of this when you are currently getting an extremely safe and long duration 10% plus return handed to you on plate!

If you are positioned for a deeper recession than the bond market expects ( this alone is a massive call) then what if there isn't even a recession?

[Daytr]

Would love to hear if others forecast macro and use this for portfolio selection. Seems like a key point from SR and a habit I can’t seem to kick.

Well it depends. The company still has to have good fundamentals & outlook but sure the macro could be why you look at a certain sector and then try and select a company within that sector you think had the credentials to perform.

It could be the AI space, Gold or other commodities. With lower interest rates where the discount rate is a big factor in the valuation, could be another area to look at.

[winner69]

Winner69 still recoiling from the results of listening to investors and economists predictions for 2023 refuses to participate in '2023 returns' thread.

From another thread - Rob was kind enough to put this in big bold letters

Rob, I’d love to praticipate in this discussion but as I have no idea of my net worth (or even $ value of shares) at the beginning and end of 2023 even if I was inclined to I can’t calculate my ‘2023 Return’ but I’m sure it’s a positive number

I gave up counting such things years ago and that makes me feel good…..and guite honestly I don’t really care. Leave that to the accountant to sort out.

My Mum always kept reminding me that the love of money can be the root of evil ….and that while recognising the role that money can play in our lives it is important to use it wisely and keep focusing on what is truly important and avoiding the trap of greed and materialism etc

Suppose some would say I’m lucky to be one of those ‘boomer’ generation of accidental millionaires …..starting with very little except loving parents and family to where I’m at today …but would modestly say I have to a some extent have had a say in my destiny.

So Rob …all I can say is the ‘2023 Return’ for me has been another satisfying and rewarding year….and with that I hope that you respect me for that and don’t hassle / deride me any more

[percy]

From another thread - Rob was kind enough to put this in big bold letters

Rob, I’d love to praticipate in this discussion but as I have no idea of my net worth (or even $ value of shares) at the beginning and end of 2023 even if I was inclined to I can’t calculate my ‘2023 Return’ but I’m sure it’s a positive number

I gave up counting such things years ago and that makes me feel good…..and guite honestly I don’t really care. Leave that to the accountant to sort out.

My Mum always kept reminding me that the love of money can be the root of evil ….and that while recognising the role that money can play in our lives it is important to use it wisely and keep focusing on what is truly important and avoiding the trap of greed and materialism etc

Suppose some would say I’m lucky to be one of those ‘boomer’ generation of accidental millionaires …..starting with very little except loving parents and family to where I’m at today …but would modestly say I have to a some extent have had a say in my destiny.

So Rob …all I can say is the ‘2023 Return’ for me has been another satisfying and rewarding year.

A fantastic note on how life and investing should be .

[mistaTea]

From another thread - Rob was kind enough to put this in big bold letters

Rob, I’d love to praticipate in this discussion but as I have no idea of my net worth (or even $ value of shares) at the beginning and end of 2023 even if I was inclined to I can’t calculate my ‘2023 Return’ but I’m sure it’s a positive number

I gave up counting such things years ago and that makes me feel good…..and guite honestly I don’t really care. Leave that to the accountant to sort out.

My Mum always kept reminding me that the love of money can be the root of evil ….and that while recognising the role that money can play in our lives it is important to use it wisely and keep focusing on what is truly important and avoiding the trap of greed and materialism etc

Suppose some would say I’m lucky to be one of those ‘boomer’ generation of accidental millionaires …..starting with very little except loving parents and family to where I’m at today …but would modestly say I have to a some extent have had a say in my destiny.

So Rob …all I can say is the ‘2023 Return’ for me has been another satisfying and rewarding year….and with that I hope that you respect me for that and don’t hassle / deride me any more

Amen. I couldn’t agree with this approach/philosophy more.

[mistaTea]

What would happen if you just picked 10 - 20 high quality businesses that you understand, dollar cost averaged into them and then just held then forever, never looking up the quoted value (because it is of no interest given you are holding forever) or measuring ‘progress’ over arbitrary timeframes against arbitrary benchmarks (or indeed against other people’s portfolios).

Who would have ever thought winner and I could be on the same page about something!

[RupertBear]

From another thread - Rob was kind enough to put this in big bold letters

Rob, I’d love to praticipate in this discussion but as I have no idea of my net worth (or even $ value of shares) at the beginning and end of 2023 even if I was inclined to I can’t calculate my ‘2023 Return’ but I’m sure it’s a positive number

I gave up counting such things years ago and that makes me feel good…..and guite honestly I don’t really care. Leave that to the accountant to sort out.

My Mum always kept reminding me that the love of money can be the root of evil ….and that while recognising the role that money can play in our lives it is important to use it wisely and keep focusing on what is truly important and avoiding the trap of greed and materialism etc

Suppose some would say I’m lucky to be one of those ‘boomer’ generation of accidental millionaires …..starting with very little except loving parents and family to where I’m at today …but would modestly say I have to a some extent have had a say in my destiny.

So Rob …all I can say is the ‘2023 Return’ for me has been another satisfying and rewarding year….and with that I hope that you respect me for that and don’t hassle / deride me any more

Kudos to you Winner, love your philosophy on life

[Maverick]

Great job Winner!...has to be " post of the year"